putadelsultan2 tayyip

retired scientist, DJ, interested in music, politics, foreign countries, satire. Emotional realist and humanist.

[NM @Normelottole]

Man kann es nicht oft genug sagen:

[Ruprecht Polenz🇪🇺 @polenz_r]

Gemessen an den vielen, hasserfüllten Kommentaren habe ich wohl ins Braune getroffen. Warum die AfD eine faschistische Partei ist. Wie sie durch ihre menschenfeindliche, hasserfüllte Polarisierung das soziale Kapital unserer Gesellschaft zerstören will…

https://t.co/67ftR38Sac

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“Either Putin has descended into utter incompetence or he has less operational control than his media machine has been letting on. Or both.”

Stephen Kotkin discusses what Prigozhin’s rebellion has revealed about the status of Putin’s hold on power.
https://t.co/vZhudgFn8y

[Carlo "Realism, Gedankenfetzen and Rants" Masala @CarloMasala1]

Österreichische Neutralität. Symbolbild (2023, nachkoloriert)

[putadelsultan2 tayyip @putadelsultan2]

#JohannesVarwick #Ukraine #Putin #BestofBullshit eines arroganten, inkompetenten Dummschwätzers.

[Lena Berger @lena4berger]

Wurde gebeten, ein "Best of" des Auftritts von @JohannesVarwick bei #Illner zu erstellen.

Herausgekommen sind ein Bullshit-Bingo und jede Menge #Piroggen…

[Anonymous Germany @Anonymous00708]

Schon "Mein Kampf" wurde ignoriert-Aber alles was Hitler später tat,war dort zu lesen.
Auch #Höcke hat schon ein Buch geschrieben.
Alles nur Spaß?
Nicht das nachher ein AfD-Wähler kommt und sagt,er habe nichts gewusst! #Faschisten #Meuthen
#Sonneberg #Erfolg_der_AfD
#Nichtmituns

[putadelsultan2 tayyip @putadelsultan2]

#Deutschland #Nazis #Rassisten #Antsemiten "Wo die #NSDAP 1933 erfolgreich war, ist es heute die #AfD" #2023 https://t.co/5FTGr15gVv via @zeitonline

[Nico Lange @nicolange_]

Diese angeblichen "Fragen" verbreiten Propaganda und Verschwörungstheorien. Leider tauchen manche nachweislich falsche Punkte in der Diskussion immer wieder auf. Daher hier noch einmal eine Richtigstellung:

1. Das Blatt, das Putin beim Treffen mit der afrikanische Delegation in die Kamera hielt, war in der Tat ein Verhandlungsstand der damaligen Gespräche zwischen der Ukraine und Russland. Welche der Versionen des Dokuments mit welchem Stand es war, ist auf den Fotos nicht erkennbar. Das Dokument zeigt ein Entwurfsdatum aus dem April 2022.

2. Über den Entwurf dieser Vereinbarung und unterschiedliche Änderungen/Ergänzungen wurde zwischen Russland und Ukraine damals immer wieder gesprochen. Es gab jedoch nie eine von beiden Seiten unterzeichnete "Endfassung", diese Information ist falsch.

3. Die Information, Russland habe sich "freiwillig aus Kiew zurückgezogen" und das sei Bestandteil dieser Vereinbarung gewesen, ist falsch. Russische Versuche einer Luftlandung bei Kiew und des Ausschaltens der ukrainischen Führung in Kiew scheiterten. Russland war militärisch über diese Anfangsversuche hinaus nie in Kiew. Nördlich von Kiew musste Russland sich zurückziehen, weil die Ukraine erfolgreich die Logistik, Führung und Kommunikation der Truppen ausgeschaltet hatte. Das war also eine militärische Niederlage, auch wenn die russische Führung das propagandistisch als "Geste des guten Willens" hinstellen wollte. Putin bedient diese falsche Erzählung jetzt gezielt.

4. In dem Entwurf des Dokuments gibt es viele Ideen, z.B. über Sicherheitsgarantien (USA, Frankreich, China usw.), die mit den betreffenden Staaten gar nicht besprochen waren. Es waren also bestenfalls Ideen in einem Entwurf.

5. Der israelische Premierminister Bennet hat mittlerweile mehrfach öffentlich klargestellt, dass es offen war, ob es jemals zu einer Vereinbarung auf der Grundlage dieser Textentwürfe gekommen wäre.

6. Das Dokument, das Putin auf dem Bild hochhält, trägt das Datum 15. April 2022. Der Besuch von Boris Johnson in Kiew war am 9. April 2022. Ohnehin gibt es zwischen dem Ende der Verhandlungen und dem Besuch von Johnson keinen Zusammenhang, auch wenn das zu einer weit verbreiteten Verschwörungserzählung wurde.

7. Die Verhandlungen wurden von ukrainischer Seite nach der Aufdeckung der Kriegsverbrechen in Butscha beendet.

8. Ihre Unterstellungen "die Medien" würden nicht berichten, sind Geraune. Es ist gut, dass die Medien über falsche Dinge und Zusammenhänge, die nicht den Tatsachen entsprechen, nicht berichten. Die Aufgabe der Medien ist es außerdem nicht, jedem propagandistischen Kniff von Putin noch durch Weiterverbreitung zum Erfolg zu verhelfen.

9. Russia Today und andere russische Medien wurden bereits am 1. März 2022 vom Rat der Europäischen Union verboten wegen der Propaganda für den Angriffskrieg Russlands.

[Carlo "Realism, Gedankenfetzen and Rants" Masala @CarloMasala1]

Während eine afrikanische Delegation mit einem Friedensplan heute in Kiev und morgen in Moskau ist, läßt Russland Kiev mit Raketen beschießen.

Ich nenne dies eine Geste des guten Willens

[Marlene Barduhn @marlenebarduhn]

Der Crew soll der Raum für #Lindemann unter der Bühne als „Suck Box” bekannt gewesen sein. Es wird immer ekliger: https://t.co/SnNjPeMpGw

[Ruprecht Polenz🇪🇺 @polenz_r]

Zu Drukos: Nein, ich neige nicht zu Verschwörungsmythen. Aber mir ist schon aufgefallen, in welcher Intensität und Tonlage #Bild und #Welt seit Wochen zu Felde ziehen. Und der Öl- und Gasindustrie traue ich zu, ihre Interessen durchaus rabiat zu vertreten.

[Ruprecht Polenz🇪🇺 @polenz_r]

„Springer gehört zu knapp 48 Prozent der US-Investmentfirma KKR, die zugleich einer der wichtigsten Geldgeber der US-amerikanischen Öl- und Gasindustrie ist und selbst im Geschäft mit dem Transport von Flüssig-Erdgas aktiv ist.“ - Das erklärt vieles.

https://t.co/Gy87jPlXGZ

[Carlo "Realism, Gedankenfetzen and Rants" Masala @CarloMasala1]

„However much territory is liberated in this offensive, the critical variable is convincing the Kremlin that even if its defeat comes in stages, it is coming.“

Superbe Analyse

Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Begins: Shall the Leopards Break Free? https://t.co/8qNh50P8h2

[putadelsultan2 tayyip @putadelsultan2]

@RosendorfStefan @artursorin @nicolange_ Wenn die Rollkräne, die für heben und senken der Wehrtore zuständig sind, funktioniert hätten. Waren sie aber sie aber anscheinend nicht bzw. das für die Flutung zuständige Militär konnte sie nicht bedienen.

[Marius ☦ @JBelcourt73]

Have we been conned? Serious question. Afterall Russia spent a huge amount of resources to construct multiple defensive lines but the evidence such as it is may be showing a different picture.

Please if you enjoy my work help my reach with a boost and a RT and I will work hard to earn it.

Long Ass Tweet Warning!

Pre-Counter Offensive it looked like the Russian's MLR was set back from the FLOC likely to reduce exposure to artillery, reduce enemy counter-battery options, drones, patrols and other ISR assets before the battle kicked off. Sensible thing to do, plus importantly it let Russia choose the terrain the main fight would be on. The Russians had months to site, build and prepare a series of defensive works to receive and absorb any Ukrainian attack using troops who were mostly rested and who had a chance to learn soldier skills and the terrain they would fight on.

So why fight so hard forward of the line now and throw all of that away? This question needs to be answered. I can understand harassing the AFU as it pushes forward so that when they reach your lines your first real blow hits an exhausted disorganized enemy, but we are not seeing that kind of action.

The evidence so far is compelling, if not absolute. I am going to offer up 4 main points:

1. A counterattack at Makarivka.

2. Barrier troops gunning down retreating Russians.

3. Incredibly high burn rate of FPV drones and other assets.

4. Willingness to expose artillery to counter-battery fire.

At Makarivka Pro-Russian accounts are claiming the 127th MRD launched a counterattack retaking the village. This is very close to the initial start lines as far as artillery goes and brings them into range of Ukrainian guns, drones and missiles that can fight from prepared positions. Ukrainian higher command and support assets are closer and better able to exercise C3 and keep the logistics tail working. Finally, the Ukrainian penetration was not deep enough to create a real flank to hit with enough impact to be operationally important. The attack makes no sense to me.

Ditto the barrier troops gunning down their fellow soldiers. I can totally get leaving blocking forces forward of the MLR to break up the Ukrainian attack with ambushes and pre-sited artillery to wreck their timetable and gain your own side intelligence about enemy movements, equipment and other items we use to cover with SALUTE reports. But, those troops job is to delay, at some point you have to let them fall back. The Japanese had suicide troops; these Russians are not them. Gunning them down only encourages surrender. The only purpose of barrier troops is to keep men in the line where the MLR is. If the barrier troops are forward, then so is the main effort.

I think this supposition is supported by the incredibly high burn rate of FPV drones, loitering munitions, artillery shells and the early and heavy application of tactical air power. This has killed and injured a lot of Ukrainians and damaged or destroyed a lot of equipment, but it hasn't caught any of them in a sack where things like enfilade fires can make bad situations absolutely hellish.

It also means that once again, Ukrainian assets that are much better at deep precision fires can conduct artillery missions with much more effectiveness. I have no doubt Ukrainian counter-battery fires are wrecking Russian artillery. As soon as a Russian gun starts firing its death clock starts ticking. Yet had they permitted the Ukrainians to get deeper, they would be moment when Ukraine would self-degrade her own counter battery ability as the fight moved out of range and radars and guns had to move. Fighting close to the start lines lets Ukraine keep her assets in the fight.

Given those four assumptions, the next question is why? Why fight forward instead of using the advantages that the prepared defenses would lend you? I have no doubt that trenches got dug, at least some obstacles were emplaced, and minefields laid but the single most important factor about a defense in depth is manpower.

By the end of WWI the trench scheme was perfected. The forward line was to break up the enemy attack and was only lightly held. The 2nd line was where you really wanted to hold, and the 3rd is where you had local reserves that could move quickly to reenforce threatened sectors and launch local counter attacks.

Behind them at some distance safe from artillery would be your operational reserves that would only be committed once you were sure you knew where the enemy's major effort was. This basic layout has not changed since 1918 because it more or less works. At Kursk the Soviets were able to use these successive lines to attrit the Germans and then at places like Prokhorovka. The Germans did it to the Soviets as well like Zhukov's defeat during Operation Mars.

Yet this style of fighting needs bodies. Look at the Battle of the Seelow Heights. Heinrici had a great defensive scheme but lacked the troops and reserves to really make it stick. He punched the Soviets in the nose but could not save Berlin. Given the size of the frontage, I think Russia is facing a manpower crisis. So let's do some math.

Russia has a maximum of 800k troops in Ukraine. She had 300,000k active-duty troops before the war. 4-50k LNR/DNR troops, 40k Wagner, a mobilization of 300k and two other induction cycles for about another 300k as well as dribs and drabs from other PMC's. Thats just about a million men. Past reports say she had committed 90% of her ground combat power to Ukraine so 900k before losses.

Now we have to consider those losses. Ukraine is claiming that number is reduced by 217k permanent losses, the US by 75k. Plus an unknown number of wounded say a traditional 3:1 ratio. If we assume half the wounded can return, but half have to be invalided out that moves the numbers up to 300k and 115k respectively.

That only leaves between 6-800k troops for the entire area. Out of that number have to come all the air defense, railway and service troops, the troops guarding Crimea, being sent to Bilhorod, used as barrier troops etc. Every cook, clerk and mechanic is one less rifleman or tanker at the front. The Russian Tooth-To-Tail ratio (T3R) is likely weighted more towards combat than NATO but is still going to be at least 1.5:1.

That reduces Russia's maximum number of troops that can fight to between 220-310K or so. Thats not very man men given the length of the front. Thats even before we considered known concentrations like Bakhmut, Kremina, Enerhodor etc. Take out those concentrations, and whatever is left is all Russia has to man her lines and serve as local and operational reserves.

I don't think that number is big enough to do it. I think Russia is fighting forward to try and shock the Ukrainians into making bad assumptions about Russian strength. "If we can beat them early, they will stop and regroup" type of thinking. I think Russia wants to fight a series of mobile battles forward where her smaller operational reserves can move around to where they are needed to act as fire brigades. This is a losing strategy.

But it may be the only option Russia has. There is one final factor that may be driving this. @oryxspioenkop has documented over 2k Russian tank losses and over 10k total pieces of significant military equipment from IFVs to guns to trucks lost so far. It is entirely possible that Russia lacks the equipment to create enough local and operational armored reserves that can afford to wait for Ukraine to come to them. Scarcity itself might be forcing Russia to go looking for Ukrainian armor to engage.

I think if Ukraine keeps on delivering blows the Russian facade will crack. I think it lacks the resources to weather the blows and when the Ukrainians get to those prepared lines, they will find them nearly devoid of troops.

My math is imperfect, but it doesn't lie. The numbers are just not there to be strong everywhere. The flipside does not hold true for Ukraine. She has 1.2-1.3 million citizens under arms. Some will be service troops, doing rear area security, guarding against Belarussian perfidy etc. but of the troops she has for combat, she can concentrate them and act where she wants to. She has the ability to achieve overwhelming local and operational superiority and has the added benefit of interior lines so shifting reserves is much easier for her.

Her biggest risk is sustainment. This is where we come in as #NAFO #Fellas... Tomorrow starts the effort to canvas all 535 members of Congress. I will be calling @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill telling them to send more, better and now and to push @POTUS to declare that #RussiaIsATerroristState. I encourage all US based Fellas to join me by contacting your own leaders and for international Fellas to keep up the pressure on your own governments.

By the way, when you contact them, be respectful and also remind them that your vote follows your money and that you donate to Ukrainian causes. Today in the midst of all the death going around I felt lead to help save some small lives, the innocent victims of war. So, I have sent $50 to @catsonmars_ua Transaction ID
6DH17132Y35941515.

It's not much, but it's not nothing and I am part of a movement. A movement by the way that is doing Toonie Tuesdays and I made my donation, have you? @FellaSam79's link is here https://t.co/CYWM9rMead

: I just supported @BlueYellowUkr on @buymeacoffee! 🎉

Blue/Yellow USA is a non-profit 501(c)3 providing non-lethal aid to Ukraine. You can support by buying a coffee ☕️ here — https://t.co/QSHBPX9cKW

We can only do our part, but our part matters, we stand with Ukraine Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukrainii!

@mfa_russia <--- still losing 24/7/365 and what manpower reserves doing?

[Thomas Dudek @thomas_dudek]

Einfach nur dreist diese Ukrainer, weil sie sich trotz des Widerstands deutscher Möchtegern-Friedensaktivisten dafür bedanken, mit Unterstützung aus Deutschland ihre Freiheit verteidigen zu können. Und das auch noch bei einem Solidaritätsspiel mit der Ukraine.

[Nico Lange @nicolange_]

Muss es denn wirklich sein, dass nach fast 10 Jahren hybrider Kriegsführung und gezielter Desinformation und nach 16 Monaten Angriffskrieg deutsche Medien und Öffentlichkeit noch immer russische Agenturmeldungen 1:1 weiterverbreiten?

[putadelsultan2 tayyip @putadelsultan2]

#TillLindemann #Rammstein und „Tills Girls“: eine Rekonstruktion https://t.co/eEYQdaATGM via @RND_de

[Ben 🇩🇪 🇺🇦 🇮🇱🇺🇸🇪🇺🌍 @twidderix]

An alle normal denkenden Fellas hier.

Habt ihr nicht auch das Gefühl, dass es immer mehr Schwachköpfe, Verschwörungstheoretiker u. sonstige geistig Minderbemittelte bei Twitter gibt? Heute ist es besonders schlimm!

Und Russentrolls habe ich noch gar nicht mitgezählt. 👍😉