Peter van der Welle

Strategist at Robeco, Winner Savvy Investor Awards - Best Asset Allocation Paper 2015, 2019. Best Investment Paper 2021.

[Negocios TV @negocios_tv]

"Europa entrará en recesión técnica a finales de 2023 y en 2024 terminará el proceso de desinflación" PETER VAN DER WELLE

@pvanderwelle @Robeco

#Europe #economy #Mercados #bolsa

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Our 13th edition of Expected Returns 2024-2028 sees the end of monetary lenience, the rise of labor and the dawn of multipolarity as pivot points shaping economic outcomes and asset returns over the next five years. https://t.co/SL6wlX2WgE

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Despite widespread gloom, global equity markets have not priced in anything beyond a severe midcycle slowdown.. perhaps they don't have to if we are close to peak #inflation

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

@HannesMinnaar Thanks!

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

@HannesMinnaar hoi Hannes, geef je ook pianoles? Loop vast in Vallee d’obermann #recitativo

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Delighted to see our 5Y “Roasting Twenties” publication been awarded “Best Investment Paper” by @savvyinv !
https://t.co/vKRpmHM73B @LaurensSwinkels

[jeroen blokland @jsblokland]

US Owners' Equivalent Rent: +2.9% and rising!

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Near term equity risks skewed to the downside according to cyclical proxy #silver/#gold ratio

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Today we are releasing the new edition of our Expected Returns! #2026 #equities #inflation #multi-asset #commodities https://t.co/ich418opC2

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Yet another sign of the stagflationary undercurrent in this expansion

[Jack Neele @jackneele]

The chip shortage is a widely known phenomenon, but this impact is huge..

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Stronger CPI #inflation has forced S&P 500’s real earnings yield into negative territory (blue); still higher than 10y Treasury yield (orange); looking back, rarely has S&P’s nominal earnings yield been lower than CPI & 10y Treasury yield at same time

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

"House price gains to date suggest an eventual acceleration in shelter inflation from the current rate of 2.0 percent annualized to about 4.5 percent. If house price growth continues at the current pace, shelter inflation would likely move even higher."

From Fannie Mae

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Looks like end of April was peak in consumer ⁦@Google⁩ search activity for getting out & about … rolling 3m change has started to decline as we continue to get back to more normalized environment ⁦@DataArbor⁩

[Matthew C. Klein @M_C_Klein]

What an amazing pair of charts from this paper on the timing of UST yield changes:

https://t.co/GaFIlg6Pao

ht @arpitrage

[jeroen blokland @jsblokland]

#Bitcoin as digital #gold - a multi-asset perspective!

- potential as digital gold
- attractiveness in a smart mean variance optimization
- impact on total portfolio level
- other considerations
- 1% allocation

Summary below, full paper next week.

https://t.co/IOgtDyBOvv

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

With economies about to re-open further, the supply side has to catch-up. Already a large gap has opened up between actual capex spending and intentions #CAPEX #US

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Global PMI manufacturing rising to 53.9 shows accelerating momentum for the global economy

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Our latest outlook @jsblokland #equities #fiscal #capex #multipliers
https://t.co/GTj873GkwF

[Peter van der Welle @pvanderwelle]

Most likely sheer coincidence but the US inflation risk premium (or rather an estimate of the concept) had its annual peak exactly on March 8 in 2013,2017,2018,2019. #reflation #inflation