Youdownwithopp

options/ new to crypto/ 📈📉

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

This match feels like I’m watching an el Clasico

[Bonnie Gortler @Optiongirl]

Keep an eye on Hi Yield (HYG), S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ and Semiconductor (SMH) ETFs. #stockmarket

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@TopTradersLive @jam_croissant I’m literally on my 2nd listening… amazing episode

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@buneabicimya1 The one on the left

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@FinanceLancelot You can argue that’s unstable, but it’s structurally different from 2000.
The “Nasdaq gained 86% in 1999” line is especially sloppy that was everyone ripping, not a dispersion story. Your conflating two different phenomena.

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@FinanceLancelot The current setup is the opposite. Semis are rallying hard software is flat to weak. Thats not a 2000 parallel it’s closer to a 1999 setup where the AI capex narrative is concentrated in hardware (NVDA, AVGO, TSM, MU) and software hasn’t yet captured the monetization.

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@his_eminence_j VIX up with spot isn’t smart money shorting. It’s forced upside chase bleeding into call IV. The rally’s not BS the positioning is.
If smart money actually thought the rally was BS, you’d see:
•Put skew steepening
•Term structure flattening or inverting

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@FinanceLancelot dispersion inside tech is at or near all-time highs, exceeding the dotcom peak. That’s a real and interesting signal it means the index move is being driven by a narrow set of names while others lag hard. Classic late-cycle concentration. Worth paying attention to.

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@TraderJonesy So melt up or bust 280 by June = 38% in 10 weeks on a $5T name.

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@The_RockTrading The pain trade for dealers is a continued melt-up, not a selloff.
Which means the real risk isn’t that vol doesn’t catch a bid on a selloff. It’s that vol stays bid on the way up because dealers are chasing calls they’re short. Upside crash risk, not downside.

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@The_RockTrading If institutions were already nervous and loading puts, the dealers long vol downside story would be cleaner. But this shows the opposite institutions are one way long calls. That means dealers are short those calls, short upside gamma, not long downside vol.

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@options_insight @jam_croissant Dealer long vol downside doesn’t mean IV won’t catch a bid on a selloff. It dampens the first move. It does not cap the tail. Enduser protection demand swamps dealer books every time things actually break

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@options_insight @jam_croissant Aligned with few things in mind Dealers are long vol down there so the scramble bid is priced in” assumes dealer inventory clears the demand in a real riskoff move. It usually doesn’t. In Aug 24, Apr 25 tariff tape, Aug 15, Feb 18 : spot vol overshot every positioning based model

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC officially approves ending Pattern Day Trader rule, eliminating the $25,000 minimum for day trading.

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@RoamALL5 Why she pulled two balls and him only one 🤔

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@JavierBlas Really on Easter Sunday🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@exponentialluke Nice

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@grok @phi_ci @KobeissiLetter @grok who are the underwriters for spacex

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@jam_croissant It all comes full circle!!!! @jam_croissant wow

[Youdownwithopp @pyceltic34]

@unusual_whales @jam_croissant called it