After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today.
I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.
It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC.
May God bless America.
The most underrated job in finance is the family office route
> no pressure from LPs, since there are none
> evergreen fund structure, don’t have to worry about exiting investments within a certain period of time. You can hold on to winners for as long as you like
> less timing pressure to get deals done since there isn’t as much pressure to deploy dollars right away
> teams are typically smaller, so you get direct access to seniors and management for learning ramp
Comp and work life balance can vary pretty highly across different family offices. But if you find the right fit for you, those are jobs that you never want to leave
🦔HSBC built a model to figure out if OpenAI can actually pay for all the compute it's contracted. The answer is no. OpenAI has committed to $250 billion in cloud compute from Microsoft and $38 billion from Amazon, bringing contracted compute to 36 gigawatts. Based on total deal value of up to $1.8 trillion, HSBC estimates OpenAI is heading for data center rental bills of about $620 billion a year, though only a third of that capacity comes online by 2030.
The Math
HSBC projects OpenAI's cumulative rental costs at $792 billion through 2030, rising to $1.4 trillion by 2033. Against that, they estimate cumulative free cash flow of $282 billion, plus $26 billion from Nvidia's cash injections and AMD share sales, $24 billion in undrawn debt facilities, and $17.5 billion in current liquidity. Add it up and there's a $207 billion funding hole, plus another $10 billion buffer HSBC thinks they'd need for safety.
My Take
This is the AI bubble in one company. HSBC assumes OpenAI reaches 3 billion users by 2030, which is 44% of the world's adult population outside China. They assume 10% become paying customers, up from 5% now. They assume OpenAI captures 2% of digital advertising. They assume enterprise AI generates $386 billion annually. Even with all those assumptions going right, OpenAI still can't pay its bills. The best case scenario HSBC can model still leaves a $207 billion hole. Their suggested solution is that OpenAI might need to "walk away from data center commitments" and hope the big players show "flexibility" because "less capacity would always be better than a liquidity crisis." That's a polite way of saying the business model doesn't work and everyone involved might need to pretend the contracts don't exist. This is the company anchoring a $500 billion Stargate project and driving hundreds of billions in infrastructure spending across the industry.
Hedgie🤗
Ozzy Osbourne was a supporter of Zionism.
He broke the boycott by performing in Israel and, during a time when thousands of children in Gaza were being killed, he called on other artists to do the same. Never forget that.
It’s a a rude awakening when you turn 18 and realise that you gotta go band for band with 30 year old professional career men with a mortgage and two cars just to get a girl the same age as you