孤帆

3年前万粉号被永封，目前小号瞎几把扯淡

[Citrini @citrini]

Since CPI is either going to be a clearing event or a thanos snap event, I figured it might be a decent time to be helpful.

If you’re relatively new to investing, then you’re bound to learn about what happens when your portfolio goes down.

Now, this is coming from someone who’s portfolio is up a paltry 20% YTD and hasn’t been gunning it on risk recently. Although also someone who’s been trading and investing their own money for the better part of a decade and has managed to not go bust (except for one, very painful time early on).

If you’re constructing a portfolio it’s important to realize it is its own position rather than a collection of positions. A stock is not just a company but the sum of its valuation, shareholder base, its sensitivity to liquidity, crowding, financing/rates and its catalyst calendar. High beta stocks are often five different trades in one ticker.

You should always have a working idea of your “tilts”. Does your portfolio go up/down more if tech rallies, if certain countries outperform, if a specific thematic is validated etc etc.

In general, you should not have a portfolio of 20 different stocks that all act the same. You might think you won’t, but getting the value of your book cut in half will make you do stupid things. (As an aside, this is also why even though buying the dip is generally a good strategy, progressively buying the dip early into a drawdown can make you mess up at the exact lows.)

High beta stocks come in all shapes and colors but in general they are selling the distant future. In good markets, the time out to that future is cheap. In bad markets, you start paying rent. That rent tends to appear as a lower multiple even while estimates stay the same.

A lot of times people will tell you the only thing that matters in a drawdown is “is the thesis intact?”. That’s one aspect, the other two are “how have expectations changed?” and “did you size like an idiot?”.

Don’t average down just to improve your cost basis, the market doesn’t care about your cost basis. Only add if you can truly underwrite the expected return improving, and that means taking a view that goes beyond a default return to multiples that may be unsustainable.

Price can become a fundamental and technical sell offs can manufacture fundamental problems - reflexivity cuts both ways.

The best question you can ask yourself in a drawdown is “from here, what is the range of outcomes and what’s the best use of the next dollar?”. If early in a drawdown you note that every time one sector goes up your portfolio goes down, it could be a decent idea to add exposure to that sector.

The ultimate goal is not to avoid every drawdown but to make sure no single drawdown takes away your ability to act on real opportunities when they arise.

No amount of truisms will help make anyone a better investor, but there is something you can do right now. If this is one of your first few drawdowns, you can observe how you react. Take notes on it. Find out what mistakes you make and then optimize your portfolio, sizing, strategy etc to compensate for those shortcomings. It’s a lot easier to do that than try to fight your own psychology - and anyone who pretends there’s a one size fits all answer to that is lying.

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@0xmagnolia @leto_bao 只知道点进来看不到是哪个傻逼就对了

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@mon1y_ 但你在最高位卖光了

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@Jiangzhuoer2 这是女拳吧，不是女权

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@Miiiho420 好的亲

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@bubblegold2 $OUST

[Star_OKX @star_okx]

CZ keeps misleading the public by claiming I’m jealous of him.

Jealous of what? His jail time as a convicted criminal? Or October 11, when millions of crypto users were liquidated and billions of dollars were wiped out, pushing the entire industry into a crypto winter? Or his tolerance of compliance violations and firing members of his own compliance team because they investigated accounts labeled as internal?

I’m not jealous of him. I’m ashamed of him.

I almost forgot his unethical conduct during the OKCoin days. Yet he mentioned me almost 10 times in his book which is full of bullshits, repeating false claims and misrepresenting the facts.

I have no interest in wasting my time revisiting those old events or digging through the evidence. But if he believes it’s necessary, I’m more than happy to go through the facts, present the evidence, and discuss it publicly with the media.

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@walsxbt 等空投的用户套保 然后被爆仓 项目方早已学会了套路

[孤帆 @qishou69]

卖了希望它跌，只是想证明自己是对的罢了

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@0xMilkRabbit 好好好

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@KuiGas 等1刀价值发现https://t.co/Z8krpoBFYS

[孤帆 @qishou69]

昨晚 solana:BPxxfRCXkUVhig4HS1Lh7kZqV6SPJhzfEk4x6fVBjPCy 0.14 的时候说哥哥姐姐们买点，说完微信群直接被封了，能报销下吗亲亲 @Backpack @Miiiho420

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@tradexyz_cn 胜宏科技上市了啊

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@icobeast 鲁迅：和市场反着来就行了

[孤帆 @qishou69]

涨吧涨吧，再涨涨就3倍了 @Backpack @Backpack_CN

[孤帆 @qishou69]

昨晚 solana:BPxxfRCXkUVhig4HS1Lh7kZqV6SPJhzfEk4x6fVBjPCy 0.14 的时候说哥哥姐姐们买点，说完微信群直接被封了，能报销下吗亲亲 @Backpack @Miiiho420

[孤帆 @qishou69]

币圈平台给了用户莫大的期望，以为能拿到多少额度，下午还在嘲笑罗宾汉只有1股，晚上人均600刀额度来了。

币圈还是2017年时候的粪坑，还是一如既往的涨退破发。

各个币圈平台：发之前跌破135了，就会全额分配给您的的呢亲亲

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@0xMilkRabbit @Maoborderless 根据大号没被封之前的经验，可能很多付费群都是洗的你的内容😅

[孤帆 @qishou69]

主方向是这样，但也要抓住每一次恐慌情绪赚点零花钱。

传统市场和宏观带来的影响，加密市场应该算提前反应过了，对应的利空消化了已经。

[孤帆 @qishou69]

今年10月大干一场

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@Gubloinvestor 你咋不说如果在0.01U买入了BTC呢？

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@knowyourself518 “行情差索性就不看钱包了”，是12万跑掉之后，后面跌下来进去了吗

[孤帆 @qishou69]

@0xMilkRabbit 来