Quaizimo Sports Analytics

Models do the math. A human makes the call. CFB & NFL boards frozen before kickoff, graded in public. NFL 2026: 21-14, every win and loss shown.

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NFL Sunday receipts. 3-1 on the board.

Free pick Dolphins/Vikings Under 39 cashed with 25 total points, and the extra action ticket hit at +184 (Chiefs by 3, 57 total). Only miss was Rams/Eagles under 43, which landed on 44.

Week 5 board drops Friday. Which game are you circling?

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Updated card w/ Iowa QB change to Hecklinski

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Market barely blinked on the side. Still Iowa +2.5 and 74% of the moneyline money is on Iowa from 40% of the tickets. Where it moved is the total, over money dropped from 81% to 63% after this came out while 85% of the tickets are still on the over. Books think Hecklinski means fewer points, not a loss?

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@CaesarsSports Might be a solid bet with game at Mizzou and poor performance from A&M lately, but also a potential let down game for Mizzou after there huge win over Florida last week.

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No board play on tonight’s 5 games but I’m leaning Louisville -3.5 and the over 59.5. Louisville has 5 TD passes of 50+ yards this year, most in FBS, and their defense has given up 4. FSU had 10 sacks and 12 tackles for a loss last week but this is a different offense. The line went from 7.5 to 3.5 so the money doesn’t agree with me. Also watching the BYU total go from 50.5 to 45.5 with 86% of the bets on the over, same thing happening at Utah State and San Jose State.

Who’s taking the points with FSU or fading the over on BYU?

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@MikeyOver1 Like the old proverb says, if it looks too good to be true it probably is not true...will see how it plays out, as it was awfully enticing at that number.

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One that’s not on the list: LSU at Kentucky. Our kickoff forecast there has 21 mph wind with gusts to 37, the most of any game we checked. On Nebraska, Action Network had it opening 50.5 and down to 48.5, so it may have moved before this was posted. With GT and Memphis already down 7, is there anything left in those unders or is it all priced in?

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@ActionNetworkHQ Our kickoff forecasts on those 3: Kentucky has the most wind at 21 mph, gusts 37. Georgia Tech 18 mph with a 98% chance of rain. Nebraska 17 mph but dry. Nebraska already went 50.5 to 48.5 on it, is the 57% against the open or the close?

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My 3 leg combo looking pretty good at this point with Williams + Irving already in the endzone, now just need Lamb to come thru 😀

#Cowboys #Bucs

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Who wants to live on the edge and take the live +159 on DAL -13.5 to cover?

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@reasonlocker Looks decent so far but not going to last long running around like that taking hits.

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@CaesarsSports The question here is this Dak post-season form Dak from 2023?

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Love me some hockey! Two NHL games left tonight. Our matchup notes:

Avalanche at Flames, 8 CT. Colorado is on the second night of a back to back but scoring 5.3 a game. Calgary is 0-3, scoring 1 a game and Dustin Wolf is at a .797 save %. Colorado -238.

Leafs at Vegas, 9 CT. Vegas is scoring 4.2 a game with a 31% power play. Eichel has 10 points in 4 games, 8 of them assists. Toronto's PK is at 90.9% so that's the matchup to watch. Vegas -170.

Full notes for every game are on the site with a free account. Which one are you on?

https://t.co/C61kn508vx

#NHL #Avalanche #Flames #Leafs #Vegas

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@BookitWithTrent Whatever the result, -8.5 was the better number. It closed -9.5 at DraftKings and consensus with 74% of tickets and 71% of the money on Dallas. A point of CLV on a 9 point favorite is worth having. You still on it or hedging live?

[Quaizimo Sports Analytics @Quaizimo]

@ActionNetworkHQ By closing lines 2024 started worse, big favs went 2-13-1 ATS through week 4. Then they covered 55% the rest of the way. Since 2010, favs of 6+ cover 49% from week 5 on, slow starts haven't carried over. Fading Dallas tonight off a 4 week sample?

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@BeauLWagner This is where a +400 on Bucs ML to CYA comes in handy!

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@DaveMasonBOL We're with you on the TNF over, locked 48.5 this morning and it closed 49.5 at DraftKings. Other side on Liberty though, we have them -13.5 and it's 14-0 in the 2nd. South Bama up 14-7 early so the +3.5 looks good. Which one are you sweating most?

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@johnewing 💯

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@invisiblestats The Bucs money edge shrank all day. 12:51 it was +9, 4:18 it was +6, at 7:02 it's 29% money on 26% tickets, +3. The money that's still moving is on the total, 49 consensus and 49.5 at DraftKings, 83% of the dollars on the over. Is Pinnacle's 8.5 the last one holding out?

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@br_betting @FanDuel Lots! That is why even though I am one of them took a small position on Bucs ML @ +400 in case it goes sideways. Still doesn't help if they lose by less than -9.5 but makes me feel better 😀

[Quaizimo Sports Analytics @Quaizimo]

@CaesarsSports True but they haven't covered, but they haven't been blown out either. 4 losses this year by 6, 4, 7 and 3, and the GB game was a push. Last 14 games only 3 losses by more than 9. Tonight's +9.5. Is the streak the line or the team?