Galbraith

Tweets do not reflect my views. Ex @GoldmanSachs and @MorganStanley. Now in greener pastures.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@JeremyWS Excellent as always, based on your quadrants it feels like steepeners (1s10s, 2s10s) may be good R/R!

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@btharris93 @AtticumFloreat Like Saturn, the revolution devours its children. Milliband will soon find out that nothing he does will be enough for these guys. Spinelessly pandering to this part of the Labour (Green?) base rightly produces these results.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.”

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@JeremyWS That is fair enough hahah - good chat!

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@JeremyWS Official data (tho it last datapoint is March) shows foreign positioning essentially at multi-year lows. Think there is quite a bit of room for tourist money to flow in.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@JeremyWS The amount of 320 digis I have seen… My mind is flirting with the idea that they don’t cut in June, 7 out of the last 8 CPI prints were downside surprises. I’ll probably be wrong because Kurali has effectively signalled it.

On HGBs I think the real money still needs to come.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@JeremyWS Agree, think a lot of people are positioned for a sharp move lower in EURHUF to 330/320, I am more sceptical and feel like a lot is priced in the very front. I like long 10y HGB vs Bund if Karman kickstarts euro adoption.

POLGB ASW remains a great trade imo (alongside xccy).

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@JeremyWS Hahaha yes. Any thoughts on CE3 here? I think HUF is safe-ish, CZK still a pay and PLN not sure - the data is quite soft still.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@K_AminThaabet What is crazy is that they all have the same ideas. There isn’t even a shadow of self introspection. The tragedy of the coddled modern western mind is unfolding before us.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@gbrumfiel @shashj @latimes @nabihbulos @shashj I know it’s chilling (I guess this is how modern war looks like), but isn’t this exactly how precise targeting looks like? People can’t scream genocide (I am not saying you do) and then complain when the targeting is so precise.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@JeremyWS @spoiler_albert @Credit_HY Feels like the very front-end like 6x9 FRA is a bit stretched no? Inflation will pick up into year-end, ECB will hike and base effects are not great in Q1 2027, but I guess with EURHUF here they can cut.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@ecommerceshares But also every shortage is followed by a glut..

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@VKMacro I think so far this year the increase is not massive, my sense is that ILS strength is mainly due to repatriation flow that started already in November 2024. BNP wrote a good piece about it last year.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@sidprabhu Think it should be clear to everyone that the effective inflation target is now 3%.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@ParanoidPol I kind of agree with most of what you said but Israel scored some incredible PR own goals - there isn’t yet a good English spokesman for the government (only the IDF). Three years into the conflict there isn’t yet a public diplomacy czar because Netanyahu and Sa’ar are bickering.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@darioperkins Genuinely hope that the ECB will hike even if the conflict is over so that other central banks can understand what NOT to do.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@Credit_Junk You should look at COA not CO1, CO1 still is the old contract which is squeezing a bit today. COA is essentially flat.

[Galbraith @QualityChaoss]

@darioperkins You Kippur War is in 1973* (nice chart!)