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Our proprietary #DARTindex continues to underpin economic recovery now in 6th consecutive week of expansion. June marks a decisive turnaround; with ~65% of loss in economic activity owing to second wave having been recouped following calibrated yet swift opening up by states.
The Week Everyone Decided to Work Overtime
A Budget that chose continuity over momentum. Bond markets uneasy not because of the headline deficit, but the way the numbers were made to work. States quietly absorbing more stress. A clear nudge to corporate India that surplus cash should build capacity, not chase buybacks.
Then, late at night, the trade deal announcement landed. Big statements, yet plenty left unsaid.
BasisPoint Insight covered the ground across fiscal, markets, and geopolitics.
Check out the newsletter for the full coverage:
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@kkalyanram, @politicalbaaba, @Dhananj89102936, @_ChokkalingamG, @MadhaviArora7, @yuvika_singhal, @Quant_Eco, @nrbmurthy73, @rajeshmahapatra, @krishnadevanv, @MayaramArvind, @SVenkat_Delhi, @IndianDebt_DCM
#Budget2026 #TradeDeal #Economy
India's #CPI inflation eases to 11-month low at 4.83% in April.
@PallaviNahata in conversation with BOB Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis and @Quant_Eco's @yuvika_singhal.
Read: https://t.co/1BEyjUeA6v
https://t.co/8ckVBknCt6
From a broader perspective, the post COVID recovery, waning of supply bottlenecks, resilience in domestic demand and policy support through ease of doing business reforms, PLI scheme (Production Linked Incentive) among others, appear to have played a cumulative role.
@Quant_Eco
Dec-23 IIP growth at 3.8% marked the end of a year of strength.
On CY basis, 2023 IIP growth at 5.7%YoY marks the strongest growth seen in the last decade, barring the post-COVID recovery year of 2021. Clearly, in recent economic cycle, 2023 has proved to be a year of inflexion
States have taken the lead on capex: @Quant_Eco
12-month trailing cumulative capex growth in Sep 23
All states: 28.3% YoY
Center: 25.3% YoY
Over the last 12-months, the correlation between states and central capex has been negative (at -0.67), with states improving upon capex even as momentum in central capex has eased from record high levels.
States now have a share of 43.9% in government capex (on 12m trailing basis), up from its recent low of 41.7% in Oct-22.
@ShubhadaRao
Today's Core Report is out, tune in !
▫️Inflation moderates to 6.8% but cereals, pulses & vegetables levels still high. With Vivek Kumar @Quant_Eco
▫️IPhone 15 sold in India could be made in India too.
▫️The US is launching fresh rounds of Covid vaccine shots, should India take note ? With @DrLahariya
https://t.co/RGDNte3Yyp
Will be participating in a panel discussion on 'Internationalisation of Rupee' on Aug 3rd at 4:30 pm IST. Thanks to @thyagufx from @SYFXTF for the invite. Look forward to an eclectic exchange of ideas. Login details below. Do join.
@Quant_Eco@ShubhadaRao@yuvika_singhal
India and the UAE have signed a currency swap agreement that allows the use of the rupee and dirham for cross-border trade.
@vikramchandra talks to Ajay Sahai, DG & CEO, @FieoHq and @ShubhadaRao, founder, @Quant_Eco, for perspective on #TheIndiaStory
Column | #IMF data suggests that India has not just seen one of the best improvements in investment rate in the post-Covid phase, but more importantly, it is expected to significantly outperform peer groups in the longer run
@VK_2021
https://t.co/ny6xrCdndq
Despite a formidable economic backdrop in last few years, India boosted its market share in global trade to a record high.
PLI has just started to have early impact while India's comparative advantage in services is expanding. Interesting times ahead!!
@Quant_Eco
Protectionism, pandemic, war....now let's skip to the good part...
India increased its global trade (goods+services) share to an all time high of 2.4% in 2022 - out of which, post COVID phase saw a gain of 30 bps.
@nsitharaman@PiyushGoyal@NITIAayog@EACtoPM@ShubhadaRao