quantfold @quant_fold - Twitter Kullanıcısı

quantfold

@quant_fold

yaklaşık 8 saat önce

@andreysuperior New alpha ! thanks for post

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quant_fold retweetledi

quantfold

@quant_fold

yaklaşık 10 saat önce

Ed Thorp, 20 years, 20% annual returns after fees, zero losing quarters. He took Kelly's formula out of a physics paper and used it to beat blackjack first, then beat Wall Street Before Thorp, professional gamblers just felt their way through bets. Casinos assumed the house edge was unbeatable, full stop Thorp read Kelly's paper, built the math into a card-counting system, wrote Beat the Dealer, and casinos across Nevada started barring him at the door. So he did the same thing to the market instead 1974, Princeton/Newport Partners. Kelly sizing on every trade. 20% annualized after fees. Two decades. Not one losing quarter The fund never blew up on its own math. It got shut down chasing Michael Milken's junk bond scandal at Drexel - Thorp was cleared, the firm wasn't spared The formula never failed him. Someone else's crime did.

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quantfold

@quant_fold

yaklaşık 9 saat önce

@0x_Ito It’s strange that I didn’t see this before – it’s a gem video, thanks

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quantfold

@quant_fold

yaklaşık 9 saat önce

@fomoliver Thanks for breaking down the timings in the video. It’s really handy

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quantfold

@quant_fold

yaklaşık 9 saat önce

@kryneeex An interesting point of view That��s worth bearing in mind

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quantfold

@quant_fold

yaklaşık 10 saat önce

Ed Thorp, 20 years, 20% annual returns after fees, zero losing quarters. He took Kelly's formula out of a physics paper and used it to beat blackjack first, then beat Wall Street Before Thorp, professional gamblers just felt their way through bets. Casinos assumed the house edge was unbeatable, full stop Thorp read Kelly's paper, built the math into a card-counting system, wrote Beat the Dealer, and casinos across Nevada started barring him at the door. So he did the same thing to the market instead 1974, Princeton/Newport Partners. Kelly sizing on every trade. 20% annualized after fees. Two decades. Not one losing quarter The fund never blew up on its own math. It got shut down chasing Michael Milken's junk bond scandal at Drexel - Thorp was cleared, the firm wasn't spared The formula never failed him. Someone else's crime did.

quantfold

@quant_fold

2 gün önce

John Kelly Jr., Bell Labs physicist one equation, 1956 built more billionaires than Harvard He wasn't solving gambling He was fixing noisy phone lines at Bell Labs One paper, not about money, about signal versus noise One line inside it became the most copied formula in trading history f* = edge / odds Ed Thorp used it to beat blackjack, then Wall Street Claude Shannon ran it on the stock market in his spare time Every fund that's survived three decades sizes its bets by some version of it Kelly never saw any of it March 18, 1965, a stroke on a Manhattan sidewalk, six packs a day, he was 41 The paper still doesn't mention gambling once

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quantfold

@quant_fold

1 gün önce

Harry Markopolos, a quant analyst, spent 9 years warning the SEC about the largest fraud in history. 29 red flags. 21 pages. They ignored him five times He wasn't guessing 1999, Markopolos was asked to replicate Madoff's returns for his own firm. He couldn't. Nobody could Not because the strategy was too good, because the math didn't work He ran the numbers and saw only two explanations Madoff was either the greatest trader alive, or running the biggest fraud in history He picked the second one, and started building the case By 2005 he had 29 separate red flags, mathematical proof the returns were impossible, laid out in a 21-page memo titled "The World's Largest Hedge Fund is a Fraud" He sent it to the SEC. Then sent it again. Five times, over nine years. He was so certain Madoff's money touched the Russian mob that he checked under his car for bombs and carried a gun The SEC opened a file, made a few calls, closed it. Every time. December 2008, the fraud collapsed on its own, exactly the way Markopolos predicted years earlier He was right the whole time. Nobody with the power to stop it wanted to hear it

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quantfold

@quant_fold

1 gün önce

@stat1x_x Thank you, I’ll look into this

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quantfold

@quant_fold

1 gün önce

Harry Markopolos, a quant analyst, spent 9 years warning the SEC about the largest fraud in history. 29 red flags. 21 pages. They ignored him five times He wasn't guessing 1999, Markopolos was asked to replicate Madoff's returns for his own firm. He couldn't. Nobody could Not because the strategy was too good, because the math didn't work He ran the numbers and saw only two explanations Madoff was either the greatest trader alive, or running the biggest fraud in history He picked the second one, and started building the case By 2005 he had 29 separate red flags, mathematical proof the returns were impossible, laid out in a 21-page memo titled "The World's Largest Hedge Fund is a Fraud" He sent it to the SEC. Then sent it again. Five times, over nine years. He was so certain Madoff's money touched the Russian mob that he checked under his car for bombs and carried a gun The SEC opened a file, made a few calls, closed it. Every time. December 2008, the fraud collapsed on its own, exactly the way Markopolos predicted years earlier He was right the whole time. Nobody with the power to stop it wanted to hear it

Noxie

@0xNox1e

9 gün önce

https://t.co/q8ZLVGcPsc

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quantfold

@quant_fold

1 gün önce

@A1xen_ yep

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quantfold

@quant_fold

1 gün önce

@0x_Ito yes man

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quantfold

@quant_fold

1 gün önce

@0x_Ito Youre welcome

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quantfold

@quant_fold

1 gün önce

Stanley Druckenmiller. One trading rule, 30 years, never broken. In 2023, he broke it Paul Tudor Jones asked him what his own obsession with the national debt had cost him "After the crash of 1987 I was so worried about debt to GDP, it caused me to be short the stock market for the entire decade of the 90s" Druckenmiller's rule for 30 years: never let my obsession with the debt interfere with my trading, because I felt it would never have market impact Then he explains what changed his mind Argentina, from 2020 to 2023, their central bank financed 60% of their deficit. They got 122% inflation The Fed, by the way, financed 60% of ours - just a kind of a fun fact By 2043 interest expense will be 7% of GDP That is 144% of all current discretionary spending So the politicians telling you they're not going to cut entitlements it's just an outright lie The position he's actually in right now I bought a massive leverage position in two years I'm short 30 years. I'm actually long fixed income for the first time since 2020