quantdata21

AI - STOCKS - MACRO - BITCOIN

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

How I place my bias on higher timeframes (within the 3-5 year business/macro cycle) - using composites (of assets and/or indicators) - all are shared regularly in discord:

1. General market tops
2. General market bottoms
3. Bitcoin miner/crypto stocks
4. Bitcoin and crypto

1. General market tops: Timing works best for bitcoin/crypto and crypto/speculative stocks. Larger cap stocks and indices sometimes require more inputs.
Total of 8 indicators create the composite bar chart in white (at bottom of image).

Charts below are for
$WGMI $MSTR $COIN $BTC $ETH $OTHERS $SPY $QQQ $OKLO $IONQ $NBIS

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@Drew_Vish I think the volatility thats getting assigned to AI, is the normal path for late stage secular cycles. The 90s had many 10-20% drops on the way up (similar to what we keep getting since 2020).

Even if info moves faster, people and human nature is still slow and cynical.

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

Bitcoin x Onchain = Signal

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@Davalos_Furtado Sentiment is the slingshot that pushes prices to extremes in both directions on such an emtional asset like bitcoin.

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

Many factors:
This chart is onchain euphoria. The bigger the asset becomes, the longer it takes to run out of steam (no longer parabola blow off tops).
The China factor, as it came out of a bear market in 2023/24, and ran into late 2025.
Also DATs and ETFs setting a rising floor under price, as they dca'd for 1-2 years after ETF launch.

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@Drew_Vish Price peaks will continue to move further and further past onchain euphoria phases, but at the same time cycles will begin to shift further and further back (till potentially like gold, they run before other risk assets)

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@Skrubjayy Now or never

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

Its the same move every cycle.

U.S ISM manufacturing PMI goes up, and bitcoin goes up.

*For the haters, I added orange dots to show you can't call it useless YET.

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@OrionEngineApp 100%

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

Same same but different.

The longer the base, the higher in space.

FTSE 100 vs Ethereum.

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@trade_centurion Didnt have the typical euphoria, so not necessary for typical bear prices🤝

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@Osemka8 Absolutely. Quite the confluence

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

The convergence of the 200 week moving average and the estimated cost of production gives STRONG support historically to bitcoin.

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@trade_centurion Add all the exchanges closing down aswell

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

Saylor seeling the BTC lows, and crypto ETFs being withdrawn. Can only mean one thing.

[Phoenix » PhoenixNews.io @PhoenixNewsIO]

STRATEGY SOLD 1,691 BTC REDUCING HOLDINGS TO 840,447 BTC

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@lourenco_vs TIme to panic

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

Very interesting. Trendlines converging at the end of this month. Tick tock on $OTHERS and altcoins.

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@__LiqHunter__ TIme will tell. Lets see

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

Yes. No macro expansion has led people to give up.

It's been a cycle within a cycle, but not THE cycle. Atleast not yet...

[max profit @FIDO4186]

@quantdata21 Let's repeat again ther has been no bill market since 2021

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

Yes. No macro expansion has led people to give up.

It's been a cycle within a cycle, but not THE cycle. Atleast not yet...

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

@VikingQuant Depends on the macro outlook, how long it goes

[quantdata21 @quantdata21]

What are the odds that bitcoin peaks long after alts again?