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tim | quant
@quantlibrary
german swing trader | orderflow analyst | quantitative trading
London
Joined October 2025
41 Following
338 Followers
538 Posts
ย Pinned Tweet
https://t.co/WtzQzISVmm
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
After the brutal selloff, we finally saw meaningful absorption around the 60k region.
More importantly, order flow showed a clear change in character.
On the way down, retail finally stopped aggressively trying to catch the bottom. One of the key signals for this was funding flipping from positive to negative, indicating capitulation from longs.
At the same time, spot demand started to return.
We could see this through improving CVDs and a steadily recovering Coinbase Premium, suggesting that actual accumulation was taking place in these regions.
All of this resulted in a positive reaction from price and eventually led to a break of structure.
We have now moved from a lower value area into a higher one, establishing a new region of balance.
Michael Saylor hinting at additional BTC purchases also acted as a catalyst for the impulsive move that brought us into this higher range.
For now, I remain in my long position from 60k.
The key question from here is whether this new value area can be accepted and defended. As always, order flow will tell the story.
@TedPillows We need spot to be active now for this rally to be sustained.
US open will be Important today. Also in terms of potential correlation between TradFi markets and BTC
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
After the brutal selloff, we finally saw meaningful absorption around the 60k region.
More importantly, order flow showed a clear change in character.
On the way down, retail finally stopped aggressively trying to catch the bottom. One of the key signals for this was funding flipping from positive to negative, indicating capitulation from longs.
At the same time, spot demand started to return.
We could see this through improving CVDs and a steadily recovering Coinbase Premium, suggesting that actual accumulation was taking place in these regions.
All of this resulted in a positive reaction from price and eventually led to a break of structure.
We have now moved from a lower value area into a higher one, establishing a new region of balance.
Michael Saylor hinting at additional BTC purchases also acted as a catalyst for the impulsive move that brought us into this higher range.
For now, I remain in my long position from 60k.
The key question from here is whether this new value area can be accepted and defended. As always, order flow will tell the story.
@tienzyee Yes, spot demand is again fading out again, itโs not what we want to see. I donโt any immediate danger because of this but itโs a factor which we definently need to consider for position management!
@TedPillows It is crucial for the rally to not loose its spot demand right now. If we stall out in these regions, the picture can flip very quickly again
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
After the brutal selloff, we finally saw meaningful absorption around the 60k region.
More importantly, order flow showed a clear change in character.
On the way down, retail finally stopped aggressively trying to catch the bottom. One of the key signals for this was funding flipping from positive to negative, indicating capitulation from longs.
At the same time, spot demand started to return.
We could see this through improving CVDs and a steadily recovering Coinbase Premium, suggesting that actual accumulation was taking place in these regions.
All of this resulted in a positive reaction from price and eventually led to a break of structure.
We have now moved from a lower value area into a higher one, establishing a new region of balance.
Michael Saylor hinting at additional BTC purchases also acted as a catalyst for the impulsive move that brought us into this higher range.
For now, I remain in my long position from 60k.
The key question from here is whether this new value area can be accepted and defended. As always, order flow will tell the story.
@The_JDK99 GM, exiting week ahead in the markets.
The Longs opened at rVAL were a great play. Important to see how we develop from here. Primary scenario is still some relief to the upside for me.
As you said as well, as long as spot doesnโt fade the relief should sustain.
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
After the brutal selloff, we finally saw meaningful absorption around the 60k region.
More importantly, order flow showed a clear change in character.
On the way down, retail finally stopped aggressively trying to catch the bottom. One of the key signals for this was funding flipping from positive to negative, indicating capitulation from longs.
At the same time, spot demand started to return.
We could see this through improving CVDs and a steadily recovering Coinbase Premium, suggesting that actual accumulation was taking place in these regions.
All of this resulted in a positive reaction from price and eventually led to a break of structure.
We have now moved from a lower value area into a higher one, establishing a new region of balance.
Michael Saylor hinting at additional BTC purchases also acted as a catalyst for the impulsive move that brought us into this higher range.
For now, I remain in my long position from 60k.
The key question from here is whether this new value area can be accepted and defended. As always, order flow will tell the story.
@AshCrypto Anticyclic thinking worked again. Late shorts which entered right at 60k got absorbed by passive buyers.
Then Saylor stepped in as a catalyst which started this small upwards impulse
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
After the brutal selloff, we finally saw meaningful absorption around the 60k region.
More importantly, order flow showed a clear change in character.
On the way down, retail finally stopped aggressively trying to catch the bottom. One of the key signals for this was funding flipping from positive to negative, indicating capitulation from longs.
At the same time, spot demand started to return.
We could see this through improving CVDs and a steadily recovering Coinbase Premium, suggesting that actual accumulation was taking place in these regions.
All of this resulted in a positive reaction from price and eventually led to a break of structure.
We have now moved from a lower value area into a higher one, establishing a new region of balance.
Michael Saylor hinting at additional BTC purchases also acted as a catalyst for the impulsive move that brought us into this higher range.
For now, I remain in my long position from 60k.
The key question from here is whether this new value area can be accepted and defended. As always, order flow will tell the story.
@MylesGinvest interesting play. legitamicy for higher is definently given but entering on a sunday pump is a risky play in my opinion.
https://t.co/qHnCgHlewJ
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
Price has now broken out of the range we discussed in the previous update.
In that post, I already mentioned that I had a slight bullish bias, and so far that turned out to be the correct directional call.
Now that we are trading above the range, two scenarios become particularly interesting:
๐ท Scenario 1:
This breakout quickly fails and price returns back into the range. In that case, the move would likely have been nothing more than a liquidity grab.
๐ท Scenario 2:
We successfully retest the rVAH / range highs and break out from there. This would open the door for price discovery into a new region of balance.
Looking beneath price, order flow is looking fairly constructive. Spot is participating in the move, which is exactly what I wanted to see.
However, there are still two red flags:
๐ถ Open Interest continues to rise with price, meaning part of the move could still be driven by short covering rather than fresh conviction buying.
๐ถ This breakout is happening on a Sunday. Weekend books are thin, meaning price can move with relatively little effort. Historically, many weekend moves end up getting faded once full liquidity returns.
For now, I will remain in my smaller-sized scalp long from 60k and continue monitoring how price reacts around the breakout area.
@cryptorover caution remains justified, but so far I will take it as a good start.
spot is participating and the move is not just perps pumped like in previous relief attempts
https://t.co/qHnCgHlewJ
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
Price has now broken out of the range we discussed in the previous update.
In that post, I already mentioned that I had a slight bullish bias, and so far that turned out to be the correct directional call.
Now that we are trading above the range, two scenarios become particularly interesting:
๐ท Scenario 1:
This breakout quickly fails and price returns back into the range. In that case, the move would likely have been nothing more than a liquidity grab.
๐ท Scenario 2:
We successfully retest the rVAH / range highs and break out from there. This would open the door for price discovery into a new region of balance.
Looking beneath price, order flow is looking fairly constructive. Spot is participating in the move, which is exactly what I wanted to see.
However, there are still two red flags:
๐ถ Open Interest continues to rise with price, meaning part of the move could still be driven by short covering rather than fresh conviction buying.
๐ถ This breakout is happening on a Sunday. Weekend books are thin, meaning price can move with relatively little effort. Historically, many weekend moves end up getting faded once full liquidity returns.
For now, I will remain in my smaller-sized scalp long from 60k and continue monitoring how price reacts around the breakout area.
@XBTkaz sounds like a great plan bro. I agree with this viewpoint.
a bounce becomes increasingly more likely. what is also interesting to observe is that longs are starting to give up entirely.
over $30bn in positioning delta skewed to the short side
https://t.co/qHnCgHlewJ
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
Price has now broken out of the range we discussed in the previous update.
In that post, I already mentioned that I had a slight bullish bias, and so far that turned out to be the correct directional call.
Now that we are trading above the range, two scenarios become particularly interesting:
๐ท Scenario 1:
This breakout quickly fails and price returns back into the range. In that case, the move would likely have been nothing more than a liquidity grab.
๐ท Scenario 2:
We successfully retest the rVAH / range highs and break out from there. This would open the door for price discovery into a new region of balance.
Looking beneath price, order flow is looking fairly constructive. Spot is participating in the move, which is exactly what I wanted to see.
However, there are still two red flags:
๐ถ Open Interest continues to rise with price, meaning part of the move could still be driven by short covering rather than fresh conviction buying.
๐ถ This breakout is happening on a Sunday. Weekend books are thin, meaning price can move with relatively little effort. Historically, many weekend moves end up getting faded once full liquidity returns.
For now, I will remain in my smaller-sized scalp long from 60k and continue monitoring how price reacts around the breakout area.
@cryptorover dont forget that we have sunday price action. caution is still needed within these regions. books are thin and price is moved easier.
https://t.co/qHnCgHlewJ
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
Price has now broken out of the range we discussed in the previous update.
In that post, I already mentioned that I had a slight bullish bias, and so far that turned out to be the correct directional call.
Now that we are trading above the range, two scenarios become particularly interesting:
๐ท Scenario 1:
This breakout quickly fails and price returns back into the range. In that case, the move would likely have been nothing more than a liquidity grab.
๐ท Scenario 2:
We successfully retest the rVAH / range highs and break out from there. This would open the door for price discovery into a new region of balance.
Looking beneath price, order flow is looking fairly constructive. Spot is participating in the move, which is exactly what I wanted to see.
However, there are still two red flags:
๐ถ Open Interest continues to rise with price, meaning part of the move could still be driven by short covering rather than fresh conviction buying.
๐ถ This breakout is happening on a Sunday. Weekend books are thin, meaning price can move with relatively little effort. Historically, many weekend moves end up getting faded once full liquidity returns.
For now, I will remain in my smaller-sized scalp long from 60k and continue monitoring how price reacts around the breakout area.
@TedPillows illiquid weekend markets cause a lot of fakeouts.
orderbooks are thin and price moves quicker via less effort.
https://t.co/qHnCgHlewJ
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
Price has now broken out of the range we discussed in the previous update.
In that post, I already mentioned that I had a slight bullish bias, and so far that turned out to be the correct directional call.
Now that we are trading above the range, two scenarios become particularly interesting:
๐ท Scenario 1:
This breakout quickly fails and price returns back into the range. In that case, the move would likely have been nothing more than a liquidity grab.
๐ท Scenario 2:
We successfully retest the rVAH / range highs and break out from there. This would open the door for price discovery into a new region of balance.
Looking beneath price, order flow is looking fairly constructive. Spot is participating in the move, which is exactly what I wanted to see.
However, there are still two red flags:
๐ถ Open Interest continues to rise with price, meaning part of the move could still be driven by short covering rather than fresh conviction buying.
๐ถ This breakout is happening on a Sunday. Weekend books are thin, meaning price can move with relatively little effort. Historically, many weekend moves end up getting faded once full liquidity returns.
For now, I will remain in my smaller-sized scalp long from 60k and continue monitoring how price reacts around the breakout area.
$BTC | Morning Briefing โ๏ธ
Price has now broken out of the range we discussed in the previous update.
In that post, I already mentioned that I had a slight bullish bias, and so far that turned out to be the correct directional call.
Now that we are trading above the range, two scenarios become particularly interesting:
๐ท Scenario 1:
This breakout quickly fails and price returns back into the range. In that case, the move would likely have been nothing more than a liquidity grab.
๐ท Scenario 2:
We successfully retest the rVAH / range highs and break out from there. This would open the door for price discovery into a new region of balance.
Looking beneath price, order flow is looking fairly constructive. Spot is participating in the move, which is exactly what I wanted to see.
However, there are still two red flags:
๐ถ Open Interest continues to rise with price, meaning part of the move could still be driven by short covering rather than fresh conviction buying.
๐ถ This breakout is happening on a Sunday. Weekend books are thin, meaning price can move with relatively little effort. Historically, many weekend moves end up getting faded once full liquidity returns.
For now, I will remain in my smaller-sized scalp long from 60k and continue monitoring how price reacts around the breakout area.
for the funding, it is important to consider which exchange you are looking at.
In Velo I would recommend using โaggregatedโ funding. This means that it takes in the data from all exchanges at once.
If you look at other sources they most offenly just give you one exchange
$BTC | ๐ Order Flow Update
After arriving at the range low, BTC is once again entering consolidation and compression.
Followers of this page know that we've discussed this market phase extensively over the past few weeks.
Balance โ Compression โ Impulse.
The market is gathering energy for its next larger move.
Looking at the data:
๐ถ Coinbase Premium is becoming less negative. That's a positive development, but for me the real bullish signal would be a flip back into positive territory.
๐ถ Funding has turned negative for the first time. This suggests that longs are finally starting to capitulate and traders are no longer aggressively trying to catch the bottom.
๐ถ Spot CVD is slowly rising again. This is encouraging because it indicates that actual coins are being accumulated in these price regions.
However, everything needs to be viewed in context.
While Spot CVD is improving, the buying remains steady rather than aggressive.
These are good first signs, but personally I would like to see stronger confirmation before calling for a sustainable bounce.
That said, confirmation can arrive quickly in these environments.
I will remain very sensitive to changes in order flow and won't hesitate to open first longs if conditions continue to improve.
@AshCrypto its part of the game. everyone trading perps should be aware of this.
https://t.co/50Go3krDrB
$BTC | ๐ Order Flow Update
After arriving at the range low, BTC is once again entering consolidation and compression.
Followers of this page know that we've discussed this market phase extensively over the past few weeks.
Balance โ Compression โ Impulse.
The market is gathering energy for its next larger move.
Looking at the data:
๐ถ Coinbase Premium is becoming less negative. That's a positive development, but for me the real bullish signal would be a flip back into positive territory.
๐ถ Funding has turned negative for the first time. This suggests that longs are finally starting to capitulate and traders are no longer aggressively trying to catch the bottom.
๐ถ Spot CVD is slowly rising again. This is encouraging because it indicates that actual coins are being accumulated in these price regions.
However, everything needs to be viewed in context.
While Spot CVD is improving, the buying remains steady rather than aggressive.
These are good first signs, but personally I would like to see stronger confirmation before calling for a sustainable bounce.
That said, confirmation can arrive quickly in these environments.
I will remain very sensitive to changes in order flow and won't hesitate to open first longs if conditions continue to improve.
@TedPillows btc is starting to gather strength for its next impuslive move.
lets see if it is enough to break above
https://t.co/50Go3krDrB
$BTC | ๐ Order Flow Update
After arriving at the range low, BTC is once again entering consolidation and compression.
Followers of this page know that we've discussed this market phase extensively over the past few weeks.
Balance โ Compression โ Impulse.
The market is gathering energy for its next larger move.
Looking at the data:
๐ถ Coinbase Premium is becoming less negative. That's a positive development, but for me the real bullish signal would be a flip back into positive territory.
๐ถ Funding has turned negative for the first time. This suggests that longs are finally starting to capitulate and traders are no longer aggressively trying to catch the bottom.
๐ถ Spot CVD is slowly rising again. This is encouraging because it indicates that actual coins are being accumulated in these price regions.
However, everything needs to be viewed in context.
While Spot CVD is improving, the buying remains steady rather than aggressive.
These are good first signs, but personally I would like to see stronger confirmation before calling for a sustainable bounce.
That said, confirmation can arrive quickly in these environments.
I will remain very sensitive to changes in order flow and won't hesitate to open first longs if conditions continue to improve.
@TedPillows yes, this will likely be a slow moving enviroment for now. lots of bids below us supporting but also not enough buyers yet to push us higher for a V-Shape recovery
https://t.co/50Go3krDrB
$BTC | ๐ Order Flow Update
After arriving at the range low, BTC is once again entering consolidation and compression.
Followers of this page know that we've discussed this market phase extensively over the past few weeks.
Balance โ Compression โ Impulse.
The market is gathering energy for its next larger move.
Looking at the data:
๐ถ Coinbase Premium is becoming less negative. That's a positive development, but for me the real bullish signal would be a flip back into positive territory.
๐ถ Funding has turned negative for the first time. This suggests that longs are finally starting to capitulate and traders are no longer aggressively trying to catch the bottom.
๐ถ Spot CVD is slowly rising again. This is encouraging because it indicates that actual coins are being accumulated in these price regions.
However, everything needs to be viewed in context.
While Spot CVD is improving, the buying remains steady rather than aggressive.
These are good first signs, but personally I would like to see stronger confirmation before calling for a sustainable bounce.
That said, confirmation can arrive quickly in these environments.
I will remain very sensitive to changes in order flow and won't hesitate to open first longs if conditions continue to improve.
@The_JDK99 many market participants are not thinking anti-cyclic enough.
https://t.co/50Go3krDrB
$BTC | ๐ Order Flow Update
After arriving at the range low, BTC is once again entering consolidation and compression.
Followers of this page know that we've discussed this market phase extensively over the past few weeks.
Balance โ Compression โ Impulse.
The market is gathering energy for its next larger move.
Looking at the data:
๐ถ Coinbase Premium is becoming less negative. That's a positive development, but for me the real bullish signal would be a flip back into positive territory.
๐ถ Funding has turned negative for the first time. This suggests that longs are finally starting to capitulate and traders are no longer aggressively trying to catch the bottom.
๐ถ Spot CVD is slowly rising again. This is encouraging because it indicates that actual coins are being accumulated in these price regions.
However, everything needs to be viewed in context.
While Spot CVD is improving, the buying remains steady rather than aggressive.
These are good first signs, but personally I would like to see stronger confirmation before calling for a sustainable bounce.
That said, confirmation can arrive quickly in these environments.
I will remain very sensitive to changes in order flow and won't hesitate to open first longs if conditions continue to improve.
yes, this is a key observation. it adds further confluence for a potential bounce. Coinbase premium becoming less negative is good, however only really bullish if we flip green.
As for spot itโs definently a good sign which we want to see for a bounce. Shows that actual coins are being accumulated in these price regions.
However we have to see everything in relation to eachother. While CVD is rising, it is doing so in a steady and slow manner rather than aggressively. Overall good first signs but for a sustainable bounce I personally want to see more!
$BTC |ย Weekend Briefing ๐
Yesterday, BTC set a new bear market low and breached 60k for the first time.
So far, however, price has failed to find sustainable acceptance below that level.
The move below 60k actually looked more like a liquidity sweep accompanied by notable absorption.
When we initially broke lower, many late shorts entered the market. But those sellers were absorbed by passive buyers, which quickly pushed price back towards 61k.
Because of that absorption, I opened a first small scalp long around 60k.
From an MTF perspective, the market is now extremely oversold and the probability of a corrective bounce is increasing.
However, I would only consider larger long positions if order flow starts providing stronger relief signals. Right now, that is still not the case.
It's important to remember that bears remain firmly in control of the market.
Positioning is extremely stretched, with roughly $30B in long/ short delta. While that increases the probability of a bounce, it does not guarantee one.
As long as order flow remains fragile, lower prices are still possible.
For now, patience and risk management remain key.
(NFA)
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