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11/ So what's this look like in practice?
When I'm evaluating a seed investment for example, I no longer put weight on my own opinion.
It doesn't matter what I think. It matters how the rest of the market will think.
This mental model is what helped break my stagnation
9/ Price doesn't bounce off your trendline because you're good at TA, price bounced because enough players were looking at the same level.
Smart money knows this, which is why they use common traps like stoploss hunts or support and resistance fakeouts to bait retail.
4/ In trading, there's 2 orders of thinking:
1st order: How do I interpret the info the market is presenting
2nd: How will others interpret the info the market is presenting
Most traders look for alpha within 1st order, while it's almost always actually found in 2nd order
2/ To further define illusionary alpha vs real alpha
real: arbitrage, MEV, mempool bots, exploiting inefficient marketmakers, to name a few
illusionary: order flow, TA, footprint, indicators, etc
95% of traders focus on "illusionary" alpha, so I'll focus this thread on that
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