quY

banner artwork by @curry_boi_8

[UserTM 用户哥 @UserTMCS]

The 5th sticker has been applied!

[ZukwiZ @zukwiz]

Very pleased to see such a statement from Valve.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Dirty Sánchez is a tyrant and traitor to the people of Spain 💩

[鈴森はるか 『haruka suzumori』 🇯🇵 @harukaawake]

🇯🇵☪️ Japanese politician Mizuho Umemura has continuously spoken out against the attempts by Muslims in Japan to build Islamic cemeteries.

She's mentioned that "we need to learn from what's happening in Europe". I agree with her completely. Do not make Europe's mistakes.

[quY @quyy112]

@zukwizCS @csfloatcom Congratulations!!

[Tyler Oliveira @tyleraloevera]

I Exposed Scammers in Tokyo! *attacked*

[quY @quyy112]

@TheBoldrini Fair enough. It is better to quit with dignity.

[quY @quyy112]

Respect to all the people who were panic sellers and yet did not reverse. So far got 1/3 of my purchases reverted.

[quY @quyy112]

@Krieke_CSGO Congrats! I also got more items than I expected, would say around 65% went through.

[quY @quyy112]

@MitaoCatCS @YouYouYouPin898 this guy works! goat

[quY @quyy112]

@spankyskins Got a few extra reverts these past few hours. First batch of items went through tho

[quY @quyy112]

@KatoBuff Agree. As mitao said he is a piece of shit.

[Chinchilla @ChinchillaisGod]

Change your policy @csfloatcom

Make it so if a buyer cancels a trade or if a seller cancels they receive a permanent ban, but if they are the buyer they receive a permanent ban and have to pay 100% of the item’s value to the seller. There will be so many bans handed out this week, prevent some of them by making them pay regardless.

[Rambofight 🇩🇪 @Rambofight]

Rare Special Item Trade-ups - The Great Reset

This will be a rather long text in which I ramble about the update, so buckle in:

Todays update has seen the most severe changes the skin ecosystem had to endure since the introduction of Tradelock in 2018.

People got a harsh reality check why skins are considered a high-risk asset. For too long, it was considered an infinite moneyglitch with no downsides.
For those unaware, Valve has introduced a trade-up feature for rare special items (Gloves/Knives) by using 5 skins of the covert rarity grade.

At the same time, Valve has also adjusted the way trade-ups work in general, factoring in the floatcaps of not only the potential outcome but also the inputs. @BrongoCS has made a great summary of the changes if you wanna read up on them further.

[Sooo… what now?]
The obvious impact of this is that the price of Coverts will go up and the price of Knives and Gloves will go down. Pretty obvious.
However, all other case weapon skins will follow the Coverts simultaneously, creating an overall boost in prices and Case ROI.

Hightier knives, especially non-gems, are in a terrible spot and I honestly wouldnt be surprised to see -80% crashes. The same goes for expensive FN Gloves, eventho the new tradeup formula might protect them slightly.
Overall, the spread between Coverts and Knives/Gloves overall, as well as the spread between cheap and expensive Knives/Gloves will decrease significantly.

[Why did Valve do this?]
While I can only speculate on this topic, to me, the only logical explanation is that they want more items back on the Steam Community Market. As the $2,000 limit is a legal threshold in the US which they can not increase, bringing down skin prices is the only other treatment.
This is in line with recent updates such as the Trade Protection (which does not affect items purchased on the SCM) and like the Genesis Uplink Terminal, which focuses much more on buying skins directly with Steam wallet funds.
I dont think theres any legal or regulatory background to this, as trade-ups are just as much like gambling as cases.
In my opinion, the benefits for Valve will be greater control over the ecosystem, the ability to collect more fees, and a wider variety of skins for users to choose from .

[Are skins dead? Is trading over?]
No.
While today has seen significant financial losses across all big traders in the market - me included - I view it as some kind of cleansing.
Ever since the introduction of tradelock 7ish years ago, we have been in more or less an up-only economy, which had its peak in multiple rounds of price manipulation, most noticeably showcased in the recent surge in price amongst cheaper gloves and playskins.
People forgot risk exists, made huge deals on tiny margins, speculated more and more and thought they would end up with generational wealth.
Todays prices reflect a much healthier skin market, where actual players can afford most items and do not have to spend multiple monthly salaries on a slightly more vibrant knife.
Although chaos, panic and uncertainty will dominate the coming weeks, this could be another 2018 moment, which could be followed by years of organic growth resulting in a more healthy and stable market, something we have not experienced for multiple years.

Thanks for reading.

[SAC @SAC_IG]

Wild CS2 update tonight. I’ve spent the last few hours digging through market data and built this projection chart to show how I think things play out.

Knives and gloves drop fast (40–50%) as the new trade-up path floods supply, while Covert skins surge short-term as everyone scrambles for inputs. Over time, those spikes cool off and the market settles about 5–10% lower overall, not a crash, just a correction.

The CS2 skin economy’s still healthy. This chart just shows the market finding its new balance.

#CS2 #counterstrike2

[CSFloat @csfloatcom]

Wonder about the impact of the new trade-ups?

There are ~20 million coverts (excluding knives and gloves).

Even if you traded up every single lower-tier skin to a covert, it only adds ~9M more.

In the worst-case scenario, if all ~29M of those Coverts were traded up, it would roughly double the supply of Knives & Gloves from ~5.5m to ~11m.

However, that would require every single skin to be traded to a Knife/Glove. It is more likely that the total supply increases far less.

[frankfurda @frankfurdaa]

right now there are approx ~5-8 million golds (knives+gloves)

trading up all the blues adds +400k knives to the supply, purples add +400k, pinks +1.28 million, and reds +4 million knives

so the supply of golds can only 2x, which is a lot of knives and gloves but not dire

[GamerPay @GamerPayGG]

These bangers just got listed on GamerPay by @quyy112 🔥

Remember you only pay 0.5% in seller fees if you sell skins for €5000+ 😎🔥

Check out all of his skins in his GamerPay shop down below⬇️

[quY @quyy112]

@RexTribution 4

[quY @quyy112]

RT @CsDealsOfficial: 🚀 CHECKOUT OUR NEW CS2 P2P MARKET!

We are excited to introduce our new P2P CS2 Market!
https://t.co/0GX5aZPQzw

✅ In…