Qwantify

The Chain, decoded.

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

HIP-3 Index Markets: @tradexyz vs @markets_xyz (Flow Breakdown)

TLDR: XYZ100 (@tradexyz) looks materially more mature: 66.65% HFT-like volume, 18.54% farm, 14.82% retail-like. US500 (@markets_xyz) in week two skews heavily incentive-driven: 51.68% HFT-like, 40.20% farm, 8.11% retail-like.

Following up on our last deep dive into flow on @markets_xyz (shared last week), we ran one more study: a direct comparison between US500 on @markets_xyz and XYZ100 on @tradexyz. We picked these two because they’re the most liquid and active index venues among HIP-3 markets from Kinetiq Markets and TradeXYZ.

Snapshot window: Jan 19, 8:00 AM UTC to Jan 23, 10:00 PM UTC.

Within this window, we analyzed 77% of total volume on US500 and 86% on XYZ100.

Methodology is similar to last time, using directionality, fill cadence, trading patterns, and other metrics. The full breakdown and details are explained on the results page.

XYZ100 has been around for a while and is still the most liquid and mature HIP-3 index venue. The data backs it up: 66.65% of analyzed volume looks like HFT strategies. The rest splits between what we think is farm volume (18.54%) and retail-like flow (14.82%).

US500 is much newer (this was week two). It comes in at 51.68% HFT-like volume, 40.20% farm volume, and only 8.11% retail-like flow, which is likely just incentives doing what incentives do.

HIP-3 index markets are still breaking volume and open interest ATHs basically every day. We think there’s a clear path to real adoption here.

At the same time, volume alone isn’t the only proxy for “real demand” or adoption. If you look at volume in isolation, a lot can get skewed, especially when incentives are doing a lot of the work.

The real question is whether these venues graduate out of the incentive phase, or whether the moment incentives fade, the flow just snaps back to the main venue. We’ll keep tracking it and rerun the same breakdown on later windows to see which way it actually goes.

For more in-depth look, feel free to visit
https://t.co/bb0mU0MrUR

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

New month, new core contributor distributions.

For June, a total of 533K HYPE was distributed to 13 wallets. Almost 20% of that, 103K HYPE, was retained either on spot or staked.

The remaining 430K HYPE was sold via OTC and on the open market.

Over the last 7 months of distributions, the team received a total of 4.47M HYPE, valued at $302M at current market price. Out of this, 14% has been retained.

This is significantly different from what some popular sites are reporting. One of them claims the team has received up to 72M HYPE, when the reality is about 6% of that number.

And only around 5% of that claimed amount has been sold so far.

For the latest updates on team distributions, feel free to check:

https://t.co/7YIxtF8EEq

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

@0xhyperfury @DonDegenDefi TWAP /= flow (delta), also a fair bit of these twaps are "spoofing"

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

Disclaimer: It is not entirely possible to fully avoid doxxing, at the end of the day it's a public blockchain, with enough information you can deduce the owner

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

Obfuscate your shared posters and let others verify that your positions are real.

In today’s update, we are bringing a small feature that lets you share your positions publicly while making it harder for others to dox your wallet.

Importantly, you can only mint an obfuscated poster for your own wallet. This means we can verify that the poster was created by the wallet owner, not someone else pretending to hold that position.

You can configure how much obfuscation you want, and choose whether to include a chart with your approximate entry. The feature is currently available for both perps and spot positions.

Try it today and let us know what you think.

Enter your wallet and share your positions with others.
https://t.co/dzf1hdFKgQ

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

Execution Bots Public Release

After a few weeks of internal and alpha testing, we are releasing Execution Bots to the public today.

The first strategy is the well known dollar cost averaging strategy, DCA, with more strategies coming in the future.

All orders are executed server side, so you do not need to keep your browser open. Just set your monthly spend and forget about it. All you need to do is occasionally check your available balance and deposit more if you want the plan to continue.

Importantly, your funds remain in your custody at all times. You do not have to deposit into any vault. Each agent is unique to your wallet and can be rotated at will.

If you want to stop, you can pause the plan at any time, revoke agent access on the execution page, or revoke it directly through the Hyperliquid frontend.

For this strategy, we do not charge any builder fee. Execution is optimized around market price using maker orders to reduce execution costs as much as possible.

At launch, we are supporting HYPE, BTC, and ETH, with plans to add more assets in the future, especially as more RWA markets come onto the scene.

If you have been a Bitcoin believer, a HYPE bull, or just a fan of the future of finance, it has never been easier to position yourself.

Set it and forget it.

https://t.co/AVUKaIfh4p

[qwan @qwanthl]

Day 11 of the 70/30 HYPE/BTC DCA
BTC avg. price: $77,180
HYPE avg. price: $40.95

The first calendar month of running this DCA strategy is complete.

Currently in a slight drawdown, but that is kind of the whole point of DCA. You do not really care about short term volatility as long as the long term fundamentals are still intact.

It might not maximize ROI in every scenario, but it keeps you consistent, and makes it much easier to keep buying when the market gets uncomfortable.

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

In the last 24h, liquidation flow on Hyperliquid was mostly led by HIP-3 TradFi markets.

Total liquidations came in around $48.6M, with $37.1M longs and $11.5M shorts wiped out.

TradFi HIP-3 markets dominated the tape, accounting for roughly 73% of notional, led mostly by the oil move:

CL: $23.7M
Brent: $4.1M
SP500: $5.1M
XYZ100 / Silver / NVDA: another ~$3.4M combined

Crypto markets were closer to 20%, led by:

BTC: $6.7M
ETH: $1.4M
FARTCOIN: $715K
SOL: $521K

The largest individual liquidation cluster came from 0x7d54…2794, with ~$14.5M liquidated across CL, Brent, and SP500, resulting in a ~$1.3M loss.

It is becoming increasingly clear that HIP-3 markets are taking real market share here, helping Hyperliquid sustain volume even during crypto winter, when exchanges usually suffer the most.

More stats here:
https://t.co/yQNe5Qu628

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

Introducing Execution Bots

Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve been building the next extension of our platform, and today we’re opening early access to Execution Bots.

To make sure the rollout goes smoothly, access will be whitelist-only for the first few days. You can apply by joining the waitlist on a first come, first served basis. We’ll notify you once your access is approved.

A bit more about the bots: they enable server-side execution through agents acting on your behalf. No deposits are required. Agents cannot withdraw funds, you keep full custody at all times, and you can revoke access whenever you want, either directly on the Execution Bot page or through the Hyperliquid frontend. Security is our top priority.

The first bot we’re releasing is DCA. You set your monthly budget, choose your execution mode, either a fixed order size or a number of fills per month, and let it run. All orders are executed post-only and chase the current market price to reduce execution costs. If you believe in Hyperliquid’s long-term success, this is a simple way to put that view into action and get exposure to the ecosystem.

Out of the box, we currently support spot markets for HYPE/USDC, BTC/USDC, and ETH/USDC, with more spot pairs planned over time.

Importantly, we do not charge any builder fee on DCA spot execution.

To help put things into perspective, we also released the DCA Simulator a couple of weeks ago, where you can test different assets and execution modes against historical data.

Applying for early access will not only give you priority access to the DCA bot, but also to future features that will be rolled out in a gated way.

If this sounds interesting, check it out here:

https://t.co/2FQJl05cSU

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

Liquidation Analytics

We’re finally adding more insight into liquidation flows on Hyperliquid, so you can get a clearer view of what’s actually happening in the market.

This is still in alpha, and we’re currently testing different parameters to improve the anomaly alerts.

Going forward, we’ll be adding more granular data and even deeper insights to help you make better trading decisions.

For now, you can check it out here:
https://t.co/yQNe5Qu628

Try it for yourself.

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

New month, new team distribution.

This month, the Hyperlabs wallet distributed a total of 333,335 HYPE, worth $12,295,561.48 at the current market price.

Of that amount, 300,000 HYPE has already been sent to HyperEVM and will likely be sold OTC.

April is currently the 3rd highest month for distribution, but it is still far below December and January, which came in at 1.7M and 1.1M HYPE, respectively.

You can track team distributions directly https://t.co/7YIxtF8EEq

[qwan @qwanthl]

If you’ve been following me for a while, you can probably guess that my two highest conviction plays have been, still are, and for the foreseeable future will be BTC and HYPE.

I’ve also said before that if I had stable income, the most sensible approach would be to allocate part of it into these assets on a monthly basis and just DCA over a long period of time. My view is simple: both of them should trade higher over time.

Yes, past performance does not predict the future, but it can still give you useful context.

So let’s run a few simulations.

First, a single-asset DCA. In this case, we buy $100 of HYPE every day from January 1, 2025 until today, and use BTC as the benchmark.

The results:
HYPE: 44.16% ROI, 73% of buys currently in profit, average cost basis of $27.687.

Over the same period, BTC returned -25.58%, which puts the delta between the two at 69.74%.

But let’s also look at a basket instead of just DCAing into one asset. For this example, take HYPE, BTC, and ETH over the same time horizon.

Target weights:
40% BTC
40% HYPE
20% ETH

The result is much weaker, with the basket returning just 3.31%. HYPE is doing all the heavy lifting here, being the only asset in profit and growing its actual portfolio weight to 55.8%.

The last experiment I wanted to check was how a basket of longs and shorts would have performed over the same period.

For this example:
Long BTC (40%)
Long HYPE (60%)
Short ETH with equal notional size to the long basket

That strategy would have returned 18.44% ROI.

The long leg returned 16.27%, while the short leg returned 20.61%.

Interesting setup overall. The single-asset HYPE DCA clearly outperformed, the spot basket got dragged down hard, and the long/short structure held up much better than I would have expected.

Obviously, looking purely at the end return is not and should not be the only metric that matters. You also have to take into account the risk curve over time and find what actually fits your own risk appetite best.

You can head to https://t.co/FvMFh8fg3B and try different settings, different assets, and see what would make the most sense for your own portfolio.

The toolbox is still in alpha, so there may still be bugs. We’re adding new features and will keep updating it accordingly. If you have any requests or suggestions, let me know in the comments or DMs.

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

In the last 30 days, HYPE moved from a local low of $25.5 to a high of $43.8 right after the TradeXYZ announcement, a 71% move.

From the flows we tracked over the past month, we believe most of that strength and buy pressure came from CEXs, with Wintermute buying over $115M worth of spot HYPE for arbitrage. The Assistance Fund was the second largest buyer, picking up $43M of HYPE.

The largest individual open market buyer was 0x96de02546bde61e6a62e3f242ea4c55265311445, which bought 335K HYPE ($11.5M) at an average price of $34.41 and is currently sitting on roughly $2M in uPNL.
https://t.co/rsdtxRNGZP

Followed closely by:
0x9dd54f70c19154ccb6513b82827b4c94c6318ed9 bought $8.8M of HYPE at $36.39
https://t.co/X1Dc0cnkib

0xc38ac1a5fdd12fbe60b5b27e61c3990e1d5b7b1f bought $7.4M of HYPE at $34.03
https://t.co/I0lgJY8WYO

What is interesting is that since the announcement, which initially pushed price higher, we have seen a significant drop in spot delta over the last couple of days: almost $41M of negative spot delta, while perps have stayed relatively flat.

Are participants taking profit into the news? Markets are usually forward-looking, so there is a decent chance this outcome was already priced in during the recent run-up.

Not financial advice, just something worth watching.

[qwan @qwanthl]

Qwantify Toolbox

I’ve been playing around with a few new tools over the last couple of days and decided to put out a very early pre-alpha toolbox (more tools and interesting stuff coming up later).

The first tool live is a simple DCA simulator, where you can check different metrics and benchmark the strategy against whatever coin you want.

I’m still working on adding more features to the DCA simulator, including more benchmarks, metrics, modes, and strategies. But even in its current state, some of you might already get value out of it, especially in this phase of the cycle.

Feel free to leave any feedback, what works and what you'd like to see added.

Head to:

https://t.co/9V8RfLNO9R

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

@lukecannon727 wow, thought the limits were generous enough, but I guess not for u

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

Hypurrscan Imports for Entities and Wallets

Over the last couple of days, we’ve been working on a new system for entities, wallets, and tracking. The big update: you can now import aliases and bundles directly from Hypurrscan (we map those to wallets and entities in Qwantify).

To import everything, head to https://t.co/399pS6trcT and export the files you want to bring into Qwantify.

We also introduced some new limits. The limits for entities and wallets you can store in our system are very generous. The only stricter limits we introduced are on entity tracking, plus how many wallets you can link to an entity you want to track. This is mainly to roll out new features safely without stressing the system.

If you’re already using Qwantify and you’re over the new limits, you’re not getting clipped. Your existing setup stays as is. The only restriction is that you won’t be able to add more wallets to entities that are already over the cap, or start tracking new entities if you’re already above the limit.

These tracking limits only apply to your own entities. System entities provided by Qwantify are excluded.

To try it out, head to https://t.co/6DCPC5WNcC.

Late update: the team distribution was also updated and refreshes automatically on the 6th of every month.

In the meantime, if there’s anything you want us to add, feel free to comment or drop a DM.

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

Wallet Tracking UI Updates

In the last couple of days, we’ve been working heavily on the account dashboard and tightening up the UI.

The goal was simple: surface the important info immediately, cut the BS, and ship a few genuinely useful features.

New features:

TWAP tracking for wallets. You’ll find it right below the open positions section.

We also noticed a lot of users get into positions via multiple partial fills. To make that easier to read, we added a toggle in the trades section to aggregate fills, so you can quickly see total notional, average execution price, and aggregated PnL.

On top of that, we revamped the transactions section. You now get more detail per transaction, plus filters at the top to slice it however you want.

Mobile wasn’t an afterthought either. The page is much cleaner and more usable on smaller screens.

Last thing: there’s now a quick action button to add the wallet you’re viewing to your tracked wallets list, directly from the page.

Check it out with your wallet, or any wallet you’re tracking:
https://t.co/dzf1hdFKgQ

[Hyperliquid @HyperliquidX]

HyperCore will support outcome trading (HIP-4). Outcomes are fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. They are a general-purpose primitive that are useful for applications such as prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments. There has been extensive user demand in both of these areas, and builders will likely think of novel applications as well.

Outcomes bring non-linearity, dated contracts, and an alternative form of derivative trading that does not involve leverage or liquidations. The outcome primitive expands the expressivity of HyperCore, while composing with other primitives such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM.

Outcomes are a work in progress and currently only being tested on testnet. Canonical markets based on objective settlement sources will be deployed once technical development is complete. Canonical markets will be denominated in USDH. Pending user feedback, the infrastructure will be extended to permissionless deployment.

[MLM @mlmabc]

Garret Bullish (@GarrettBullish) just got fully liquidated for more than $700M and is now down ~$270M over the past two weeks on Hyperliquid.

He’s also down more than $128M in all-time PnL since he started trading on this account in early October.

https://t.co/ZeuGr2XvsM

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

In the last few hours, we’re starting to see a lot of longs from the low $20s closing out their positions.

Notably, 0x1bbfb3a33600338d5a948618189649a4588d5fc4 closed their $11M long, securing $3.8M.
That was followed by 0x0f991873aab3e14191978946d48f30f624ae9867, which closed ~$10M worth of long positions at an average $33.01, and 0x939f95036d2e7b6d7419ec072bf9d967352204d2, which closed ~$7.8M worth of longs at an average $31.1 (they still hold an ~$11M long position), rounding out the top 3.

At the same time, we’re observing spot getting top blasted, with the top 5 bidders all averaging above $31. 0x9d26f5bc7e5c7f767eade0b9de58d94f49301bff is still bidding and has ~$18M in stables left, which we assume is going to get used to keep buying.
https://t.co/xptHGeBnQl

Top 5 Spot Buyers (24h)
0x9d26f5bc7e5c7f767eade0b9de58d94f49301bff - $26,977,477.51 - avg $33.46
0x97f8219e401f07752a60ddb0a75efda96d1389d9 - $11,170,644.73 - avg $32.33
0x6ed3c871ac6aae698a9d6e547a3f54873b091e18 - $3,469,143.26 - avg $32.33
0x11afccc503d20af253e586a25235235d446a2d18 (TechnoRevenant?) - $3,199,998.71 - avg $31.01
0xc7bfd896cc6a8bf1d09486dd08f590691b20c2ff - $2,999,999.92 - avg $33.03

https://t.co/e39wUvsJg6

[Qwantify @qwantifyio]

@GarrettBullish closed in the last 30 minutes $37M of his ETH long, realizing $3.4M loss.

He is still $607M ETH long, and together with his BTC and SOL position, he is $757M net long, sitting on $66M unrealized loss.

https://t.co/sDd9ghfHx8

If you want to get notified when any activity happens on tracked entities, make sure to sign up and setup TG bot. You can also create your own entities and track them privately.