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Announcing Sakura no Uta -To Dance Over the Cherry Blossoms-
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What comes after happiness?
SCA-DI's award-winning visual novel is coming soon with an English TL & retouched HD art.
Wishlist Now: https://t.co/TCXHJPfb3g
(second-to)FINAL UPDATE!!!
TLDR: The new system is MATHEMATICALLY better because the free pulls carry tf out of it(if the free pulls add to the pity)
First of all, I'd like to apoligize for admittedly a lot of rushed math that unexpectedly blew up. It was never a final version, rather my first impressions upon seeing the announcement from my friends and before BA posted their blog post(to my knowledge).
I recently finished my new system, and my conclusions are... mixed... and I'll definitely make a video on it still but it's not 100% bad/good. It's just a mixed feeling that just never needed to happen.
Screenshot 1 is an average count of about 5000 players simulating 200 pulls per banner rotation for 10 banners. This is with the transferrable pity, rewards, AND REWARDS COUNTING TOWARDS PITY(who knows they might pull an endfield). It won 78.4% scenarios.
Screenshot 2, on the other hand, is the same, except if the rewards don't count towards pity(The old system wins 1.5% more scenarios, but honestly that can be seen as negligable/sidegrade)
In all honesty, the 40(200)-80(400) extra pulls carry the hell out of the new system. Without those, the new system gets cooked so hard it's not even funny. (Screenshot 3, 20 banners, 90% win rate)
However, I still have my thoughts on the new gacha system that stems beyond math and just into gameplay.
The fourth screenshot is comparing a typical banner rotation where you want BOTH students. There are notable spikes at 200, 400, and 300 (There should be one at 100, but this random seed was a bit more spread out).
Essentially, the way I interpret the data(you are free to disagree) is that each spike can be a source of excitement for a player, as thats when you get the student, or get a student for free since you already GOT the student.
In that regard, the new system essentially flattens out this graph much more, when the worst case scenario of 400 pulls for 2 is the exact same.
We are basically now getting rid of the feeling of cheating a system or "benefitting from a system" for the replacement of "getting lucky in a system's 50/50". In my opinion, 40 free pulls can't recreate that feeling to that level, even if you are legitimately benefitting from it.
There's this common psychology term called "negative asymmetry", which basically means that humans give more weight, attention, and impact to negative events, information, and traits than to positive ones. In this case, I believe it is just that. No math can change our brains, and this semi-upgrade/sidegrade was overall a net-negative.
Now, I can theorize all day long about why they did the change to seemingly flatten the curve or even seemingly benefit players when Nexon just announced a 7-trillion won revenue goal up from their 4.5-trillion, but I believe that is a discussion for another time.