David Rolando

Electromagnetics/RF/microwave engineer, outdoor enthusiast, Texas Aggie

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx It's a subtle feature, vorticity (as I showed earlier) looping over time definitely shows a local max propagating north from Mexico into Texas. The signature gets weaker as it merges with other dynamical features in Texas, but I'm not a professional.

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx Not sure I get the fixation on 1 or 2 forecast offices ... they probably didn't mention "Barry" because it wasn't a continuous low-level circulation coming from Mexico. But the WPC had a mesoscale discussion on July 3 that specifically mentioned a mid-level remnant in Texas.

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx I find overly simplistic, black/white, "it was this , not that" kind of causal explanations for complex physical phenomena to be suspect. Recognizing that remnant energy from Barry may have merged with other dynamics to produce the final effect in no way minimizes other causes

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx Not surprised that the forecast discussions didn't mention Barry. They're focused on the most immediate dynamics, not any and every plausible upstream influence. They're compact reports, not comprehensive research papers.

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx "people ... are grasping for straws". Including all the professionals who have cited Barry post storm? (like the WPC I mentioned?). Come to think of it, almost everyone (including you) is at least saying that "moisture" from Barry played a role in their "what happened" summaries.

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx Just because this is not a classic case of a tropical cyclone weakening over land and transitioning into a rain-maker with continuous radar-visible convection, it doesn't mean that moisture transport or upper level energy residuals didn't mix into the system that emerged in TX

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx "Barry's influence ... was negligible" seems inconsistent with the previous statement that "Barry brought tropical moisture"?

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx Vorticity (units - inverse seconds) @ 700 mb, which measures "rotation" in a single snapshot. The point is that a subtle burst of "upper level energy" from Barry was added to the dynamic mix that produced the MCV, rather than some "visible" rotation on radar or satellite.

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx Agreed on moisture transport, but a local vort max can be clearly tracked from Barry's demise up through Mexico, entering Texas near Amistad midday July 2, then drifting NW to near Midland/Odessa, before giving way to the dynamics you describe on July 3-4

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx Radar doesn't show the remnant mid-level circulation from 6/30-7/4 (e.g. as seen on 700 mb vorticity). The NHC even noted a MCV forming in Mexico on its final Barry discussion. Same circulation that drifted north then east into Texas. July 3-4 radar was just the endgame

[David Rolando @r25david]

@DerekDervinis @averytomascowx Big Sandy Creek (flowing into Lake Travis at Jonestown) is different than Sandy Creek.

[David Rolando @r25david]

@Prince_Opie @averytomascowx Barry had "dissipated" in terms of low-level circulation and convection, but its mid-level circulation/vorticity survived and is precisely what spawned the MCV as it drifted through Mexico into Texas

[David Rolando @r25david]

@hurricanetrack You're in the original home country of Buc-ee's. Lots of old, small ones around there.

[David Rolando @r25david]

#atxwx Cedar Park

[David Rolando @r25david]

SW Cedar Park, near ACC Cypress Creek Campus, from severe-warned storm. @averytomascowx @NWSSanAntonio

[David Rolando @r25david]

SW Cedar Park, near ACC Cypress Creek Campus, from severe-warned storm

[David Rolando @r25david]

@averytomascowx 5.67 inches in SW Cedar Park

[David Rolando @r25david]

@averytomascowx Recorded >2.9" at my place in Cedar Park in about 50 minutes before the rain rate finally started tailing off

[David Rolando @r25david]

@ChetGresham @NWSSanAntonio I'm in Cedar Park. It bottomed out at 36.7 around 2:30 in the morning but slowly drifted into the mid-40's by sunrise. Didn't realize how cold it got until I checked the log.