A soft landing is not just about jobs.
It is about a ratcheting up the cost of capital (rate hikes) and having the economy (borrowers) *accept* that cost (take out new loans) without causing a downturn. Credit must roll at the new cost of money in order for the cycle to "land".
That's not happening today.
Everywhere you look right now, borrowers are doing everything possible to avoid paying higher rates. They don't want to accept them. Mortgages are at multi cycle lows. Bank lending is the slowest of ANY ERA outside recessions. Private credit is all amend & extend games. There is no acceptance of current rates. We're still floating along on income strength and old debts from the 0.25% Fed Funds regime.
The "landing" cannot be secured until we see credit rolling at higher borrowing costs without an interruption to growth. So far we're dancing around that outcome in hopes that Powell cuts TREMENDOUSLY before anyone needs more credit. It's a Mexican standoff.
No soft landing until this is resolved.
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Trump speech recap:
- US to become crypto capital of the world
- To create strategic Bitcoin reserve for US
- To fire Gary Gensler on day 1
- Views stablecoins as pro dollar
- To end Operation Chokepoint 2.0
- To bring Bitcoin mining to the US
@reflexerfinance Explore non-USD-connected indices.
A good index should be (i) easily measurable, (ii) not too manipulable, (iii) credibly neutral, (iv) reasonably stable.
Random ideas:
* World GDP
* Weighted basket of world currencies
* DAO manages a CPI-like basket
@DavidSacks Do you really want the full story of what you did to Parker to be told publicly? Because it's the worst case of an investor maltreating a founder that I've ever heard, and I've heard practically all of them.
This answers why altseason didn't arrive this cycle. Times when almost all alts moon no watter what are in the past. Now you have to pick. Altmarket is diluted. Cashflow level might be same or more.
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❖ TWO SEC LAWYERS RESIGN AFTER AGENCY CENSURED FOR ABUSE OF POWER IN CRYPTO CASE
Two Securities and Exchange Commission lawyers resigned after a federal judge sanctioned and sharply rebuked the Wall Street regulator for “gross abuse” of power in a crypto case.
https://t.co/F7feq2Yz11.
The @Scroll_ZKP zkEVM is becoming 10x cheaper!
Our latest protocol upgrade, Bernoulli, introduces important optimizations such as added support for EIP-4844, as well as the SHA-256 precompile.
Lemme elaborate 🧵