Rafehyll Capital

Ex-Global Macro & Strategic Positioning PM | Systematic Multi-Strat Economic Regime-Engine | Private Crypto Fund Manager

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

Does a hot IPO debut predict anything?

First-day pop vs. 12-month return across 35 completed listing-years: r = 0.05.

Figma popped +250% and was −82% six months later. Facebook barely popped at all — and also fell.

The open prices the allocation, not the business.

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

SpaceX IPO $SPCX (June 11th) context

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

Does a hot IPO debut predict anything?

First-day pop vs. 12-month return across 35 completed listing-years: r = 0.05.

Figma popped +250% and was −82% six months later. Facebook barely popped at all — and also fell.

The open prices the allocation, not the business.

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

2024-2025 IPOs have had a performance edge thus far, but not w/out on par DDs (median -56% on the year)

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

@mikefutia TRENDS

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

@BlackboxAIhost 👋

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

9/ Our bottom line.

The AI trade is real. The asymmetric alpha has always been, and remains, one layer beneath it — in the physical infrastructure the market still refuses to capitalize properly.

You cannot print copper. You cannot print molecules. You cannot scale intelligence without electrons and metals.

The supercycle isn't over. It's compounding.. The capital rotation is coming, and rotations of this size do not arrive gently.

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

Why the Commodity Supercycle Remains the Most Asymmetric Trade This Decade --
(updated May 2026)

📂1/10

The Street remains fixated on the digital layer of AI — model architectures, accelerator roadmaps, hyperscaler multiples. The carry, however, sits one layer below: in the atoms, molecules, megawatts, and metals that allow inference to scale at all.

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

8/ Positioning — core book unchanged, conviction higher:

Overweight hard assets. Tier-1 copper producers w/ brownfield optionality, diversified majors w/ disciplined capital frameworks, integrated energy names w/ through-cycle FCF & shareholder return programs.

The molecule complex. Grains and softs as the food-security expression. Uranium and the nuclear fuel cycle as the only scalable baseload complement to renewables-plus-AI load growth.

Underweight unhedged digital duration. Mag 7 CapEx is real and accretive — but the first marginal dollar accrues to the suppliers of atoms, not the consumers of them.

Tactical gold. Structural bid intact -> central bank accumulation, debasement hedge, reserve diversification. Near-term, EM official-sector selling to fund energy imports can produce clean mean-reversion entries.

This is a decade-long regime shift. It is not a 12-month trade and it should not be sized as one.

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

@KillaXBT Do you offset the funding rate w/ another arb trade, or just accept carry from funding?

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

@KillaXBT Most deserved recognition for the rigor put into your analyses/technical breakdowns👏🏼 Significantly enhanced countless features in my own systems; all the praise man!

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

@AravSrinivas 👏🏻

[Rafehyll Capital @rafeterminal]

@perplexity_ai Max subscriber, signed up for waitlist just now; cannot wait to run this on my Mac Studio Ultra!