most forecasts never get checked. our team checked 2M+ of them. when a market says 70%, it happens about 7 out of 10 times, and it gets more accurate the closer you get to the deadline. the data's public, so you can run it yourself.
worth a read.
We ran a study on over 2 million markets to evaluate their calibration. To our knowledge, this is the largest replicable study on this topic.
Here are the results: 🧵
You can now set Claude Code's output style to Concise.
Claude leads with the result, keeps responses short, and still gives full detail when you ask.
Turn it on in /config → Output style, or set "outputStyle": "Concise" in settings.json.
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@imtomcurry wdym someone still has to clean that data, make it usable, and prove the model actually learned the right things from it. raw data is the cheap part
@AbhinavXJ why not? there is literally no ceiling to what they can build around voice-native AI interaction. everybody is working on it eleven labs, oai, etc