Rahul Sharma

📈 Executive Director & Head – Technical & Derivatives Research | Market Strategy
⚡ High-Conviction Insights |
🚀 Performance | Precision | Alpha

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

My first podcast is LIVE! 🚀🔥

If you’re into Equity Markets, this one is a must-watch.

Hit play, drop a comment, and let me know your biggest takeaway!
🎧👇

https://t.co/eOHe1l7ofZ

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

One question for traders & investors:

What is one thing you wish you had understood about the stock market 5 years earlier?

Could be a mistake, a lesson, a habit, a strategy, or simply a mindset shift.

I’ll share mine in the comments.

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

🇮🇳 Happy Independence Day!

“Work as if you live in the early days of a better nation!”

This is one quote that has stuck with me recently. It reminds us that building a better India is not just about what we inherit, but what we contribute every day.

May we cherish our freedom, honour those who fought for it, and work towards a stronger, happier and more prosperous India.

Jai Hind! 🇮🇳

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Three days in Kolkata. New city, new conversations, and a little time to soak in the character of this incredible place. ❤️

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Nifty Pathfinder | 10-08-2026

What mattered in the last week?
·         US jobs weakened → Fed expectations turned more dovish.
·         Dovish shift → Gold/Silver up and US equities remained strong.
·         Oil lower → positive macro for India.
·         RBI pause + earnings + improving FII flows → Indian equities stayed resilient.
·         Nifty was steady, but broader-market participation remained stronger → underlying risk appetite was better than the headline index suggested.

Nifty: Weekly Technical & Derivatives Picture

Nifty formed a Doji candle on the weekly charts indicating a pause in the market momentum however it did manage to add 0.77% for the week. Broader market did relatively better as Smallcap 100 Index was up 2.73% to register a new life high.

Nifty Futures saw closure of 1.6% in COI for the week along with positive price action. Midcap Nifty Futures added 4.8% in longs while FINNIFTY Futures added a substantial 28.8% in open positions while remaining marginally negative for the week. Amongst Nifty components, short covering was seen in HINDALCO, SHRIRAMFIN, INFY and ETERNAL, while Long buildup was seen in GRASIM, SBIN and INDIGO.

Nifty PCR was down by 36% for the week and settled at 0.89 while Banknifty PCR remained flat at 0.94 level. Options concentration is seen at 24,600 Puts and 25,000 Calls.  

FII Data was broadly bullish in the cash segment with net buying seen for the week for Rs. 2907 Crs. Index short positions did dip below 1.5 lakh contract mark once in last week and for any further upmove from here these shorts have to get challenged.

Key Domestic Triggers This Week

• CPI inflation: July CPI data is due on 12 August. Key for the RBI’s future rate trajectory and bond yields.
• WPI inflation: July WPI data is due on 14 August. Important for tracking wholesale price pressures and corporate input costs.
• FII/DII flows: After improved FII activity last week, continuation of foreign buying would be an important positive for Nifty.
• Rupee: USD/INR movement remains important, particularly for IT, financials and foreign flows.
• Crude oil: Brent around the $80–85 zone remains important for India’s inflation, current account and overall macro sentiment.
• Monsoon: Progress of the monsoon and rainfall distribution will remain important for rural demand, FMCG, autos and agriculture-linked stocks.
• Sector rotation: PSU Banks, Auto, IT and Metals showed strong momentum last week. Whether this leadership continues will be important for the next leg of the market.
• US CPI: 12 August. Probably the single most important global macro event of the week. A softer-than-expected number would reinforce Fed-cut expectations and could support equities, gold and bonds.

Pathfinder View

Nifty bias remains buy on dips with the range shifting from earlier 24,000-24,500 to 24,400 and 24,800. Once we cross, 24,800 expect further short covering which can take the Nifty higher. Broader market is suggesting positive bias.

Support: 24,400 & 24,300. Bias remains positive as long as we are above 24,400.

Resistance: 24,800 (minor) & 25,000 (major).

Regards,
Rahul Sharma
JM Financial Services Ltd.

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

The most important number after an earnings result is not EPS. It is the stock price reaction.

I have learnt this repeatedly by watching markets.

A company can report excellent numbers and still fall.

Another can report average numbers and rally sharply.

Why?

Because the market doesn’t trade the result. It trades the difference between expectations and reality.

This is where Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis work beautifully together.

Fundamentals tell you what happened.
Price tells you what the market thinks about it.

After an earnings result, I look at three things:

1️⃣ Were the numbers good?

2️⃣ Were they better or worse than expectations?

3️⃣ What did the stock do after the result?

If earnings are strong and the stock breaks resistance, sees strong volumes and continues to show relative strength, the market is effectively saying:

“I believe this story.”

But if good results are followed by selling, I don’t ignore it.

Sometimes expectations were already too high. Sometimes the market is looking beyond the current quarter.

That is why I believe the best opportunities often come when fundamental improvement and technical confirmation arrive together.

Numbers tell the story.

Price tells you whether the market believes the story.

#TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #StockMarket #Investing #IndianMarkets

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Ever since Tukaram Mundhe took charge, the change in Mumbai’s food scene is real! From Shivsagar to local vada pav stalls—cleaner kitchens, real paneer, no fake additives, and food-grade paper. Inspiring to see what ONE dedicated officer can achieve for Amchi Mumbai. Imagine if the whole machinery worked like this!

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

This pattern has taken a lot of time to get formed (since April 2026) so once the breakout takes place, the move in Nifty can be highly rewarding over the next 1-2 months.

Support: 24,200 & 24,000. Bias remains positive as long as we are above 24,200.

Resistance: 24,530 (minor) & 24,600 (major). A sustained trade above 24,600 would indicate shift in market mood from range bound to breakout.

Bottom Line:
This is a key week for the markets as we attempt to breakout for the 4th time. Keep an eye on mentioned levels for trade placement.

Regards,
Rahul Sharma
JM Financial Services Ltd.

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Nifty Pathfinder | 03-08-2026

What mattered in the last week?

1. Sharp Drop in Global Crude Oil Prices
The Driver: Brent crude plummeted from previous highs near $95–$100/bbl down to ~$85–$88/bbl as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cooled and US-Iran strike risks abated.
Impact on India: Lower crude prices significantly reduced inflation expectations, improved India's current account outlook, and strengthened the Indian Rupee toward 95.60–95.90/USD.

2. Rebound in FII Flows & Global Risk-On Sentiment
The Driver: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who were net sellers in previous sessions, turned back into net buyers during the week.
Impact: Reduced currency volatility and lower energy costs encouraged foreign inflows back into Indian equities after five consecutive days of declines.

3. Sectoral Rotation: Heavyweight Rally in IT, Financials, & Auto
IT & Tech Surge: Positive quarterly guidance from US big tech companies sparked a massive rally in Indian IT stocks (Led by INFY).
Banking & Financials: Solid earnings and improved credit growth outlook drove a ~4.2% jump in Nifty Financial Services (led by Bajaj Finance).
Auto Momentum: Strong monthly auto sales updates and earnings outperformance propelled Nifty Auto up ~3.8% (led by M&M and Bajaj Auto).

4. US Fed Policy Outcome & Global Central Bank Clarity
The Event: The US Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
Impact: The hold was widely anticipated, eliminating interest rate uncertainty and fostering stability across emerging market currencies and equities.

Nifty: Weekly Technical & Derivatives Picture

Nifty formed a strong bullish candle on the weekly charts led by higher than average volumes. Similar strength was seen in Midcap and Smallcap Indices as well indicating that broader market participation was also present.

Nifty Futures saw short covering as COI was down by 28.5% for the week. Infact Nifty COI has hit lowest level in last one year. Similarly, all other major Index Futures like BANKNIFTY, MIDCPNIFTY and FINNIFTY witnessed short covering. Amongst Nifty components, biggest short covering was seen in BAJAJ Twins, ETERNAL, INFY, M&M and TECHM while long build-up was seen in JIOFIN.

Nifty PCR has inched upto 1.39 highest in last 10 sessions. (Recent high was 1.43 on 13th July). Options concentration is based at 24,000 Puts and 24,600 Calls. Friday’s session saw writing across strikes from 24,400 to 24,200.

FII Data was strongly Bullish on Friday in Nifty Futures as they bought 13,129 contracts. FII Index positions have come down to 1.73 lakh contracts short vs 2.70 lakh contracts short of last week – a reduction of 36% in one week. FII’s are also on a buying streak for last 4 days in cash segment worth Rs. 9,296 Crores. Infact in the last 30 Days, FII’s sell figure is a meagre Rs. 7,388 Crs against a buy figure of Rs. 52,528 Crores by DII’s.

Key Domestic Triggers Next Week

• RBI MPC outcome — most-watched domestic event; a rate cut/CRR move would be a strong positive for Banks/NBFCs/rate-sensitives.
• Q1 FY27 earnings continue: BHARTIARTL, ONGC, SBIN, TITAN, HINDALCO etc
• Crude oil direction — sustained hold below $85 is constructive; a spike above $90 on fresh Iran escalation flips sentiment.
• FOMC minutes (Aug 5) — hawkish-dissent language could pressure FII flows via dollar strength.
• USD/INR near 95.6–95.7 — a tailwind for FII inflows if it holds.

Pathfinder View

Nifty has reclaimed the 200 DEMA on daily and weekly closing basis along with above average volumes in last four trading sessions. The overall setup is expected to breakout above 24,600 and it can lead to fresh long additions and renewed buying interest in the largecaps.

There is also a triangle pattern placed on weekly charts of Nifty the breakout of which is placed at 24,500 on weekly closing basis.

(1 of 2)

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

3 of history’s greatest thinkers (Frankl, Jung, Watts) all agreed on the exact same 5 rules for a meaningful life. Here’s what they found:

There’s an unsettling moment that happens as you get older. You realize your life isn’t changing because you’re making better decisions. It’s changing because you’re repeating the same unconscious ones. The same fears, the same arguments, the same invisible habits.

Nearly a century ago, three radically different thinkers, Viktor Frankl (Holocaust survivor & psychiatrist), Carl Jung (founder of analytical psychology), and Alan Watts (Eastern philosophy scholar), approached human psychology from completely different angles. Yet they all arrived at the same five principles to break out of that cycle.

Most people don’t ignore these because they’re complex. They ignore them because accepting them requires becoming someone entirely different.

1. Stop searching for happiness. Search for meaning.

Chasing happiness directly is like trying to smooth water with your hand. The harder you push, the more chaotic it gets. Meaning often arrives disguised as responsibility. Frankl famously noted that humans can endure almost any how if they have a why.

2. Everything you refuse to face eventually controls you.

What remains unconscious shapes your life from behind the curtain. Jung warned that the things we sweep under the rug don’t disappear. They turn into anxiety, burnout, or perfectionism. The growth you seek is almost always in the work you are actively avoiding.

3. Your identity is more flexible than you think.

Saying, “This is just who I am,” sounds like self acceptance, but it’s usually surrender. Identity is simply repeated action over time. Your future isn’t created by discovering yourself. It’s created by becoming someone your past couldn’t predict.

4. Life changes when you stop trying to control everything.

Control feels like safety, but it becomes exhausting. You cannot control outcomes, time, or other people. Psychological maturity isn’t mastering the world. It’s mastering your response to uncertainty through your attitude, effort, and response.

5. The greatest prison is the one you can’t see.

Freedom doesn’t start when your external environment changes. It starts when your internal perception does. Most people spend decades trying to fix their circumstances while carrying the prison around in their own heads.

The tragedy of life isn’t that it’s short. It’s that so many people never truly live it because they’re too busy defending a version of themselves they built years ago.

Which of these five resonates with you the most right now?

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

BREAKING: 🇮🇳 Large caps now account for just 58% of India’s total market capitalisation, the lowest share on record.

I have a strong feeling that large caps are gearing up for a meaningful comeback over the next few months.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Nifty crosses 27,000 by the end of the year.

Here’s why:
• From a technical standpoint, Nifty has largely completed both its time and price correction.
• Q1 earnings have, so far, held up better than market expectations.
• FII selling pressure has eased significantly, with net outflows falling to their lowest levels in the last 4 to 5 months.

Sometimes, the biggest opportunities emerge from the most under-owned segment of the market.

Chart credit : WhatsApp

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

FII SELLING PRESSURE IN INDIAN MARKETS HAS PLUNGED 95% IN JUST FOUR MONTHS, SIGNALING A MAJOR EASING OF FOREIGN OUTFLOWS.

March: -₹1.22 lakh crore
April: -₹70,000 crore
May: -₹55,000 crore
June: -₹49,000 crore
July: -₹6,056 crore

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

On this Guru Purnima, I bow in deep gratitude to all the mentors, teachers, life lessons, and quiet guides who have lit the way forward. Your patience, vision, and unwavering belief inspire me every single day to keep growing, learning, and striving for excellence.

May we always remain humble students of life, open to wisdom from every direction.

Wishing everyone a deeply blessed, joyful, and peaceful #GuruPurnima! 🌟

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Mirabai Chanu weighs 49 Kg, and lifts 205 Kg to win a Gold.
👍🏽👏🏽

Normal Indian wife's weighs around 65 kgs, does not want to lift a vegetable bag of more than 3 kg, asks husbands to carry it…

And Still Wants Gold !!

🤪😔🤪

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Loved this!

"Peace doesn’t come from the places you go; it comes from the mind you carry. Never compare your life to that of others. There’s no comparison between the Sun and the Moon—they shine only when their time comes."

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

📊 𝗡𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 | 𝟮𝟲-𝟬𝟳-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, but it rarely ignores macro realities forever.”

This week, 𝗰𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗶𝗹 became that macro reality.

The correction has now become unmistakable. 𝗡𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟮𝟯,𝟴𝟬𝟬 after its fifth consecutive negative session. The biggest trigger has been the sharp spike in 𝗰𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 $𝟭𝟬𝟬/𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹, reigniting inflation concerns, weakening the Rupee and forcing the RBI to defend the currency.

🌍 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀

🇺🇸 𝗨𝗦: Wall Street ended weak as Alphabet's AI capex plans, Tesla's margin disappointment and rising bond yields weighed on sentiment.

🇪🇺 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲: Stable PMI data, easing UK inflation and an unchanged ECB policy supported modest gains.

🌏 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮: Markets remained under pressure due to Middle East tensions and soaring crude prices.

🔎 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱

• Crude oil > 𝗨𝗦$𝟭𝟬𝟬
• Stronger US Dollar Index & higher Treasury yields
• Mixed global PMI readings

📈 𝗡𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

• Weekly loss: 𝟮.𝟯𝟯% (-𝟱𝟲𝟲.𝟴𝟱 pts)
• Close: 𝟮𝟯,𝟳𝟲𝟳.𝟰𝟱
• Fifth consecutive weekly decline
• Strong bearish weekly candle

𝗙𝗜𝗜 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴

• Index shorts: 𝟮.𝟭𝟲L ➜ 𝟮.𝟳𝟬L contracts
• FII Cash: -₹𝟳,𝟭𝟴𝟮 Cr
• DII Cash: +₹𝟴,𝟲𝟯𝟴 Cr
• Net Flow: +₹𝟭,𝟰𝟱𝟲 Cr

📊 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗣���𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲

✅ Outperformers
• FMCG (+0.60%)
• Media (+0.40%)
• Auto (+0.40%)

❌ Underperformers
• Realty (-4.00%)
• Fin Nifty (-3.69%)
• Bank Nifty (-3.12%)
• IT (-1.57%)

🧭 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘄

𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀 until Nifty decisively reclaims 𝟮𝟰,𝟬𝟬𝟬.

𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁: 𝟮𝟯,𝟲𝟬𝟬-𝟮𝟯,𝟲𝟱𝟬
Break below could open 𝟮𝟯,𝟯𝟱𝟬.

𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲: 𝟮𝟯,𝟵𝟬𝟬-𝟮𝟰,𝟬𝟱𝟬
Only a sustained close above 𝟮𝟰,𝟬𝟱𝟬 would indicate the correction is losing momentum.

📅 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿:
• Monthly & Weekly F&O expiry
• Q1 FY27 earnings
• Crude oil & Rupee movement
• FII positioning

📌 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲

The market has shifted from 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗽 to 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱.

Until global macros stabilise and FIIs begin covering shorts, remain selective, manage risk and avoid catching falling knives.

𝗜𝗻 𝗺����𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀, 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

Rahul Sharma
JM Financial Services Ltd.

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Markets Have Memory. Price Remembers Where Business Was Done.

One thing I have realised over the years is that price itself tells only half the story.

We spend a lot of time looking at support, resistance, moving averages, breakouts etc.

But there is another question worth asking:

Where has the market actually done the most business?

This is where Volume-at-Price becomes interesting.

Imagine a stock trades between 900 and 1,100 for a few months.

But nearly 40% of the total volume during this period happens between 980-1,020.

That zone is not just another support/resistance on the chart.

A large number of market participants have positions anchored there.

Which means they also have memory there.

Now suppose the stock moves to 1,150 and then corrects back towards 1,000.

Different participants will react differently.

Someone who missed the rally may see an opportunity to enter.

Someone stuck from higher levels may want to exit.

Someone who accumulated around 1,000 may defend the position.

Suddenly, that old high-volume zone becomes active again.

This is why I believe all support and resistance levels are not equal.

A level where very little business happened is very different from a level where thousands of crores worth of positions changed hands.

I also like combining this thought process with Anchored VWAP.

Anchor VWAP from an important event like a major breakout, earnings gap, panic low or structural high.

It gives you an approximation of the average price paid by participants since that event.

Now imagine three things coming together:

→ A previous high-volume price zone
→ Anchored VWAP from an important market event
→ A technically important support/resistance level

That confluence can become extremely powerful.

Because technical analysis is ultimately not about drawing more lines on a chart.

It is about understanding where participants are positioned, who is comfortable, who is trapped and where behaviour is likely to change.

Price tells us where the market is.

Volume tells us where the market has committed capital.

And sometimes, that difference tells you much more than the chart itself.

#TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #StockMarket #EquityMarkets #VWAP #MarketStructure

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

🚨 SUZLON: Follow the Smart Money.

Three unusual data points are flashing at once:

🔥 Futures OI at a 5-year high → 483.5 million shares

📦 Delivery volumes exploded 263% on Friday

🎯 ₹60 Call (July) has the highest Open Interest across every Call & Put strike
This isn't normal positioning.

When Futures + Delivery + Options all point in the same direction, the probability of a significant move increases.

The next few sessions could get interesting. 👀

#SUZLON #Stocks #NSE #StockMarket #Trading #Options

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Nifty Pathfinder | 20-07-2026

It was a divergent week for US Equity markets as Nasdaq corrected around 3.57% for the week while Dow Jones fell relatively lesser at 0.93%. Europe remained flat to negative while spike in Brent Oil prices was back as it has bounced back 26.5% in last two weeks from the recent bottom of $70.2/barrel. The meltdown has started in some key Asian markets as Nikkie was down 6.26% last week while KOSPI has corrected 30% in last 4-5 weeks. China too was down by 4% while Gold and Silver have failed to see any uptick yet.  

https://t.co/ywdLz1xmmH

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

A stock doesn’t rally 50% in 5 days just because revenues grew 38%. So what really happened? 📈

The recent move in Kalyan Jewellers is a fascinating lesson in how markets actually work.

The trigger was fundamental: a strong Q1 business update showing ~38% YoY revenue growth.

But then came the technical shift.

Positive Surprise → Technical Breakout → Momentum → FOMO/Short Covering → Rapid Repricing

This is where Fundamentals 🤝 Technicals becomes powerful.

Fundamentals explained WHY the stock deserved attention.

Technicals indicated WHEN the market started recognising the change.

And price action showed HOW aggressively expectations were being repriced.

The biggest lesson?

Markets don’t price the present. They price the change in expectations about the future.

Some of the most powerful stock moves happen when three forces align:

Fundamental Change + Technical Breakout + Market Psychology 🎯

The news may light the match.

But expectations determine how big the fire gets. 🔥

#StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #Trading #Investing #IndianStockMarket

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

@VicV_15 Thats amazing!

[Rahul Sharma @rahul2506]

Instead of flying back from our Goa offsite, decided to do something different this time… took the train back to Mumbai. 🚂🌿

And boy, what an experience!

The Konkan route was absolutely stunning. Lush green landscapes, misty highlands, endless monsoon vibes… there’s something magical about seeing this side of India from a train window. 💚

And if you listen closely, you can hear the rhythmic chugging of the train in the background. That somehow made the whole experience even more surreal.

Sometimes, the journey really does become the destination. ✨