CashflowCartel

The consensus is a trap for the undisciplined🩸
I aspire to cut past the fine print to find alpha in US & India equities🎯
TechnoFunda📊
No hype. Data driven 🗡

[Tom Doub | Arcadia Analytics @tomdoub]

Great process question. That's a lot to answer in a tweet, but at a very high level...

Take a discretionary idea that you have or find a promising one to test and try to define it as mechanically as possible.

Then backtest it as far back as you can - I usually go 6-10 years at least. Take a discretionary idea that you have or find a promising one to test and try to define it as mechanically as possible.

If you use AI to code, don't let it write custom backtests - make it use an event-driven backtesting platform like Nautilus Trader or Backtrader (both free).

Use a short window of the data to explore and refine. I use a lot of visual tools to understand data (box & whisker plots etc), and I'm also looking at performance in quintile or decile buckets to find weak spots. Then test on the data you held back (using walk forward and other methods). If it falls apart there, it was probably never real.

If something shows promise I'll spend a lot of time tracing through the actual trade logic on charts (agents can build charts and show entries/exits). Lots of trade logic issues get obscured when looking at summary data and I don't trust a backtest until I've traced through lots of trades (agents now help there too).

Vendor data quality is a big issue - it will matter more with some strategies than others.

Once you have a consistent trading edge, you can then look at how to get more out of it (i.e., how can you find more trade opportunities and retain the edge, how can you improve R:R, improve trade management, etc).

In my opinion, once you have something decent, there is a lot of benefit in going super deep and really squeezing every drop of value from it. I'll spend weeks or months digging into a single promising idea, many of which I'll eventually discard.

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@microcp2mltibgr They still have over 725 billion dollars to sell

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@TrendSpider Hope we don't fly before earnings. Need the big base and I'm greedy to buy at every opportunity

[Gaurav Srivastava @Gaurav_Cx10]

ADR is one of the most underrated filters in swing trading.
Been trading just high ADR stocks for past few years after Qullamaggie & results have been significantly better.
Hence, I backtested same swing setup across two markets:
NSE + NASDAQ : 10 years
~950+ stocks
Only variable that changed was ADR%.
1-Low ADR stocks, <=2.5%
NSE → Avg win +7.8% | PF 1.15
NASDAQ → Avg win +7.4% | PF 0.86 (losing system)
2-ADR 5-8% stocks
NSE → Avg win +22.3% | PF 2.30
NASDAQ → Avg win +21.8% | PF 1.40
ADR barely changes the win rate.
It changes the size of the wins.
Sweet spot is 4-6%

How I use ADR in my process:
For me, it's a filter.
First, look for stocks that can actually move:
→ Strong prior uptrend (Stage 2)
→ Showing relative strength
→ ADR above my minimum threshold, say 3%
Then I wait for the setup:
→ Pullback or consolidation
→ Tight range near key moving averages
→ Volatility contraction
and sort based on high to Low ADR and chhose top 2-3 High ADR stocks.
Example: Stock with 5% ADR that moved only 0.7% today is showing compression, basically volatility has dried up but can move avg 5%.
ADR determines whether the stock has enough fuel to become a big winner.
Bookmark and try adding in filter orEntry

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@Venu_7_ Fantastic business no doubt, not concerned about rate hikes ? A few more could follow.

They won't borrow in that case, they will have to dilute, won't it be prudent waiting for better entries in the 140 to 190 range ?

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@anupammahor Thesis on Saregama ? I've decided to buy in the 470 to 500 range for now. Curious to hear your thoughts

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@retail_mourinho Gives more chances for accumulation. Reward comes razor quick after some time.

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@space_mobster @wave3trades I expect Elon to shit on their plate eventually, full ported into Space X.

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@cmsinvests Honestly a re brand to X Corp would sound pretty cool

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@Asset_Architect Off topic, but thoughts on price action of Saregama India ?

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@MithunSarkari It'll grow earnings 15 percent bull case near term.

Capital market reforms will accelerate this dramatically. It was compounding at 25 percent annually before SEBI interventions and high taxes.

Sneaky suspicion that 2028 budget will have something considering 2029 election.

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@xvi_harley The CEO is not the technical brain of the company. His job is to run day to day operations and market the company well.

The market is supreme and it reflects in price action.

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@EndicottInvests Grok 4.8 may drop soon if Elon is straight on his timelines this time around.

[Ren @ren_stocks]

Everyone is chasing the humanoid logos. I did what I did with AI Infra -- looked underneath the hood.

The money is not in the robot, it is in the ~40 parts that repeat inside every body, the ones almost nobody can build.

Here is the whole stack, layer by layer. The bottleneck is marked.

The brain // the intelligence:
$NVDA Nvidia -- Jetson + GR00T. The obvious one, lowest humanoid alpha.

$QCOM Qualcomm -- RB6, lower-power industrial.

Also: Tesla, $GOOGL, $META, iFlytek (https://t.co/AnHlNfPKKY), Huawei (private)

Sensors & perception // how it sees and feels:
$OUST Ouster -- solid-state lidar pure-play.

$CGNX Cognex -- machine-vision incumbent.

$ALGM Allegro -- magnetic position sensors. The quiet winner, every joint needs them.

$VPG Vishay Precision -- strain gauges, force sensing.

$NOVT Novanta -- six-axis force-torque (ATI).

Also: Orbbec (https://t.co/yigg6uSi13), RoboSense (https://t.co/9FZ5k93HId), $HSAI Hesai, Sunny Optical (https://t.co/z85SfWI65E)

Edge AI inference // decisions on-device:
$AMBA Ambarella -- edge vision processors.

$LSCC Lattice -- low-power FPGAs for sensor fusion.

$CEVA Ceva -- DSP and inference IP. Pure licensing, pure obscurity.

Motors & motion // the muscles:
$NJDCY Nidec -- world's largest motor maker.

$AME Ametek -- precision instruments and motion.

$RRX Regal Rexnord -- motors and drives at scale.

$RBC RBC Bearings -- precision components.

Also: Moons' Electric (https://t.co/biPmDRhzpe), Zhaowei (https://t.co/z2rVCMvYv5), Leadshine (https://t.co/X4DZ3RWnLM), Veichi (https://t.co/irvupB1u8w)

Joints & precision motion // human-like movement --THE POTENTIAL BOTTLENECK:
6324.T Harmonic Drive -- strain wave gears. Every Optimus joint uses one.

6481.T THK -- planetary roller screws and linear bearings. Tokyo-listed, off the radar.

$ALNT Allient -- US-listed, integrated motion.

https://t.co/0smiDAWJcw Schaeffler -- roller screws.

Also: LeaderDrive (https://t.co/Js9Kra8NtE), Shuanghuan (https://t.co/OAcawGft1V), Zhongda Leader (https://t.co/hhYRcBq4B3)

Dexterous hands // a humanoid in your palm:
$INVN... none US-listed. China leads here.

Zhaowei (https://t.co/z2rVCMvYv5) -- hand drive modules.

Inovance (https://t.co/vaYwyLzCMa) -- servo and motion control.

Also: PaXini (private, tactile)

Actuator assembly // putting it together:
Sanhua (https://t.co/7qYkUd9HdF) -- assembly at auto-supply-chain cost.

Tuopu (https://t.co/ItXHpMG0q2) -- built for cost and volume.

Power electronics // energy into controlled motion:
$NVTS Navitas -- GaN, the asymmetric small-cap.

$TXN Texas Instruments -- motor-control MCUs at scale.

$STM STMicro -- broad motor-control portfolio.

$ON onsemi -- power management and sensing.

$MPWR Monolithic Power -- high-efficiency DC-DC.

$IFNNY Infineon -- automotive-grade power.

$RNECY Renesas -- automotive and industrial motor control.

$WOLF Wolfspeed -- SiC pure-play, the distressed wildcard.

Energy & rare earth // the raw fuel:
$MP MP Materials -- the REE pure-play everyone knows.

$USAR USA Rare Earth -- magnet manufacturing, the new entrant.

$LYSCF Lynas -- largest non-China producer.

$UUUU Energy Fuels -- diversified REE and uranium.

ethereum:0xc18360217d8f7ab5e7c516566761ea12ce7f9d72 EnerSys -- industrial batteries.

Also: CATL (https://t.co/aI6zHImx7t). The magnet, not the cell, is the scarce part.

The one maker I'd own: $CCXI

$CCXI Churchill Capital XI -- merging with Agility Robotics, trades as $AGLT on close. Only US-listed pure-play humanoid. Digit is real: 65k+ work hours, 300M+ in orders, backed by NVIDIA, Amazon, Foxconn. Pre-deal SPAC though, ~10 dollar floor, size it accordingly.

Goldman's own scorecard ranks them: harmonic gear (16) > dexterous hand (15) > actuator assembly + roller screw (14) at the top. Brain, battery and lidar (12-13) at the bottom. The money is in the middle, in the mechatronics.

The winners may not be the robot makers. They may be the companies inside the robot.

Now you know which floor to look at. ⚡

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@VedanttAsawa Turnaround stories create the biggest multibaggers.

People crying loot are just salty they missed out. Keep up the good work !

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@YodaStockInvest $SPCX will be gunning for their lunch money as well.

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@ishmohit1 @stockscansin @Shashank1171 Could we please get an option to see RRGs ( Relative Rotation Graphs ) anytime soon ? Great product btw, happy subscriber.

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@AlphaOwlTrading $SYM looks primed for a move as well

[CashflowCartel @Rahull_242]

@MithunSarkari I saw a window where the stock was down relative to it's median valuation over the past 5 years and bought it looking at forward earnings. 10/10 returns so far.

Even if somebody wants to replicate this business capability wise to commercial production, it'll take decades.