Rahul Saraf

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

Volatility this financial year is one of the lowest on record - five expiries have all finished around 24,000, within 100-200 points of each other.

Implied volatility is also near its lowest, around 11.5%, versus almost 23-24% during periods of stress.

But the market hasn't bounced back. Investors make money when markets go up, and with all the bad news, that hasn't happened.

Another 2-3 months of pain is possible but earnings should start showing up in prices soon.

#StockMarket #Volatility

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

"I just want ₹1 lakh a month after I retire."
Before the amount, you need your expense at retirement, that's the number that matters. Everything else is just an SIP calculator.
Solve for your non-discretionary expense - rent, electricity, food. Multiply it by 2 every 10 years. Over 30 years, that's 8 times.
Spending ₹50,000 today? Retiring in 30 years? That becomes ₹4 lakh.
And that's before medical inflation, which is far more astronomical.

#RetirementPlanning #FinancialPlanning

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

If Nifty has given you near-zero returns over the last 3 years, that's actually a very good time to buy.
If the last 3 years gave you more than 15% compounded returns instead, be more circumspect, a little more scared.
Right now, Nifty's 3-year return is almost zero. So which part of the cycle you're in completely depends on the rear-view mirror. If things look very good, the future might be a little bleaker.
Whenever the last 3 years' equity returns are less than 10%, it's a good time to accumulate. Can it fall further? Of course. Be assured, the market doesn't care whether you bought or not. It will fall 10-15% every year regardless. Keep that in mind, and buy whenever recent equity returns are low.

#Nifty #stockmarket

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @ZeeBusiness with @AnilSinghvi_, the conversation focused on sector opportunities after the recent market uncertainty.

Defence continues to remain positive, while OMC pressure has started improving. FMCG may see gradual recovery, especially in smaller names.

For bottom up stock picking, the focus was on aviation, fertilisers, and smaller FMCG stocks. IT may also offer buying opportunities over the next 2 to 3 months.

The opportunity now lies in sectors where earnings are improving and valuations are still attractive.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @moneycontrolcom, the conversation focused on why banking looks attractive from a long-term perspective.

Banks remain one of the strongest pillars of the Indian economy, yet many leading private sector banks are trading below their long-term average valuations.

This is not because their businesses have weakened. Large Indian banks are part of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, where global investors have recently allocated more capital to markets such as Korea and Taiwan, driven largely by the semiconductor theme. This has shifted investor attention away from Indian private sector banks despite their healthy fundamentals.

When strong businesses are available at attractive valuations despite healthy fundamentals, they deserve a closer look.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @_groww’s Podcast, the discussion was about when to invest a lump sum and when to stagger your investments.

The formula is simple.

- Check Nifty’s last 3 year compounded return.
- If it is above 15%, avoid a lump sum.
- If it is below 7%, you can invest a lump sum.
- Between 7% and 15%, decide based on your risk appetite.

Investment decisions become better when they follow a framework rather than emotions

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @ZeeBusiness with @AnilSinghvi_, the discussion looked back at four market calls made in the after the war, and each has played out as anticipated:

- Oil was expected to cool off, with mean and median prices moving towards $85. It is now near $78.
- Small caps were expected to outperform when confidence was low.
- Gold profit booking was discussed when gold was near $4,700. It is now around $4,172.
- The view was also that equities may not fall more than 5 percent to 7 percent from 23,500.

Markets need courage, but courage must come from data.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @ZeeBusiness's panel discussion, the conversation focused on whether mutual funds can create wealth in volatile markets.

Volatility does not affect every investor the same way.

When markets were near their September 2024 peak, a lumpsum investor in one scheme could be negative, while an SIP investor in the same scheme over the same period could still be positive.

Volatility should not be feared. It is a normal part of markets, and consistent investing is one of the best ways to turn it into an advantage

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

The best investment strategy isn’t the one with the highest expected return.
It’s the one that gives you the highest probability of achieving your financial goals.
Investing should begin with the destination, not the product.

The quality of your investment decisions is determined long before the markets open - by the quality of your process.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @_groww's Podcast, the discussion was about what a retail investor should do while investing independently.

First, do not do anything fancy.
Second, do not fall for FOMO. If past returns look very attractive, that is exactly when discipline is needed the most.

For a retail investor with limited capital, mutual funds are usually enough.

Simple is not boring.
Simple is what survives.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @ZeeBusiness's panel discussion, the conversation focused on whether mutual funds create wealth.

The answer lies in time and compounding.

Across long holding periods, the oldest Indian equity mutual fund schemes prove that disciplined investing can deliver outcomes that are often missed when investors only focus on short term market fear.

Volatility is not the same as permanent loss. While markets move up and down in the short term, compounding rewards investors who stay invested through those cycles.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

In conversation with @AnilSinghvi_ on @ZeeBusiness, the discussion focused on the next key market triggers.

Three data points matter.

Equity mutual funds have already seen nearly ₹23,000 crore of provisional inflows this month, with about ₹5,700 crore in ETFs and around ₹18,000 crore in other equity flows.

The next triggers to watch are the India US trade deal and July quarter results.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @ZeeBusiness's panel discussion, the focus was on direct equity and what truly matters when selecting stocks.

If you want to create wealth through direct stocks, remember BLOC.
Base effect in your favour.
Low volatility in earnings.
Overlooked stocks.
Concentrated allocation.

Direct equity is not about buying what everyone is already discussing. It is about finding quality before it becomes obvious.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

It’s easy to believe in long-term investing when markets are making new highs. The real test begins when headlines turn negative and portfolios turn red.

History has rewarded those who stayed disciplined, not those who waited for certainty.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @_groww's Podcast, the discussion was about understanding risk.

Risk is not one number.
Standard deviation tells you how much you can deviate from your expected path.
Beta tells you how bumpy the ride can be.
Value at Risk tells you what can happen in an extreme fall.

Each measures a different dimension of risk.

Better investment decisions begin with measuring the right risk.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @_groww's Podcast, the discussion was about the journey from ₹1 crore to ₹10 crore.

The first ₹1 crore is usually built through professional hard work.

The mistake often begins after that. Someone will say buy TSMC, someone will say Bitcoin, someone will say derivatives. That is how many people move from ₹1 crore back to ₹50 lakh.

The next ₹9 crore is created by staying invested, remaining disciplined and allowing compounding to work over time.

That is how wealth compounds from ₹1 crore to ₹10 crore.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @_groww's Podcast, the discussion was about Gen Z spending habits.

Spending is not the issue. Spending beyond your earning potential is.

There is nothing wrong with aspiring for better things. In fact, aspiration often becomes the motivation to achieve more.

But as your lifestyle moves up, your income and investments should move up with it. Your effort must grow, and your money must work harder too.

That is how ambition remains sustainable.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

On @_groww's Podcast, the discussion was about why investing needs a clear target.

The journey to the first ₹1 crore is driven mainly by career growth and savings. The journey from ₹1 crore to ₹10 crore is driven by disciplined investing and compounding.

That is where aimless investing becomes a problem.

If you do not have an emotional goal, start with a number target. A portfolio needs a destination, otherwise discipline becomes very difficult.

[Feroze Azeez 🇮🇳 @feroze_azeez]

In conversation with anchor @LovishaDarad on @moneycontrolcom the discussion focused on crude oil prices and why fear needs to be measured through history.

We studied 12 to 13 major oil rallies since 1971 where crude rose more than 50 percent. In most supply driven rallies, crude corrected meaningfully within 1 year.

Only 2 demand driven phases did not follow that pattern.

For this financial year, crude’s mean and median price could remain around $85 to $88.

[Rahul Saraf @rahulsaraf0203]

@feroze_azeez @AnilSinghvi_ I have sold gold worth ₹1.24 lakhs.
#Isoldmygold