Southwest monsoon has become weak over South India.
Northeast monsoon would make onset around 20/10/25 (#deepavali time) in TN&Puducherry.
For next 5 days we can expect good rain (Light to mod)in most parts of TN&Puducherry.
Pic credits Tropic Ssec
#ChennaiRains#Chennai
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Sunday update (28/9)
Mostly dry weather is expected in most parts of TN&Puducherry till 1/10/25.
From 2/10 Monsoon would weaken. So parts of North TN, Delta districts and interior TN can expect Light to Moderate rain from 2/10 including #Chennai.
Pic credits Nwp Imd
Did anyone notice the SST over the Arabian sea dropping off crazily ? Its almost 27c over EC/SE Arb sea, Subsequently there is a significant reduction in the rains in the forecast charts as well..
SE Arb sea is known for its tendency to hold the warm waters around the year but anomalous cooling in the Season trend is getting spread & alos turning out to be remarkable one.
Actually It rains plenty over the east central Arb sea adj SE Arb sea off the west coast ..
In fact waters adjacent to Goa/Coastal karnataka is the 2nd rainiest spot next to North Bay of Bengal waters during JJAS monsoon season.
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Now the cooler tendency is expected to get enhanced in the coming weeks pushing the temperature to 26.5/26*c& this will turn out very interesting in the coming weeks as we all know the threshold to hold the deep convection is 26.5/27c..
Strong LLJ increased the rate of evaporation, also caused significant vertical mixing leading to the massive drop??
Now what will be the impact to the monsoon when ocean & atmosphere both gets suppressed at the same time...
DC @TropicalTidbits@GHRSST
#Monsoon #SWM2025 #Arabiansea #Alarming #Indianocean #Monsoon2025 #Kerala #Karnataka #Mumbai #Konkan #Goa #Gujarat #Cooling #ENSO #LaNina
Kelvin waves are eastward propagating Atmospheric Ocean coupled waves which moves faster than MJO near equator.
Credits Australian Met Bureau
#mjo#kelvin
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is Atmospheric Ocean coupled oscillation which moves close to equator in the direction West to East. It's strength is identified using amplitude and location using phase. Phase 2,3,4 represents Indian Ocean.
More details:
https://t.co/JKcYkRue3Z
From 10/7 to 17/7/25 we could expect good thunderstorms rain in parts of TN&Puducherry north of #Madurai (including #Chennai). Winds are favorable in this time period.
Monsoon would also gradually strengthen in #Kerala and Coastal Karnataka from 15/7/25.
Continued
The global large scale sub-seasonal wave train - MJO to positively interfere with the weakening stationary background low frequency signal in the days to come. The large scale eastward propagating convective center is forecast to move towards the Maritime Continent from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in the week ahead. As a result, the Australian monsoon trough could get enhanced associated with a poleward propagation. SST anomalies over Nino 3.4 region have started to exhibit a decreasing tendency in the past 2 days and may continue to do so in the days to come with anomalous easterlies picking up. Models also predict the anomalous rainfall over the east central equatorial Pacific to persist for a while probably associated with the recent positive SST anomalies there. Overall, it looks like the tropical rainfall anomalies forecast for the next few weeks could arise from a suite of multi - scale interactions.
Images sourced from @NOAA cpc CFS model outputs. @TropicalTidbits
Currently a circulation is present in Southeast Bay of Bengal. This would move towards South BoB around 11,12/3/25. Due to this system we can expect Moderate to Heavy rain in Delta and South TN on 11/3,12/3/25. Chennai can expect Light Rain on 11,12/3/25.
Pic credits Tropic Ssec
From 30/1/25 to 1/2/25 parts of Coastal TN&Puducherry (especially Delta and South #TN) can expect Moderate Unseasonal Rains due to easterly winds induced by circulation in South Bay of Bengal. #Chennai can expect Light Rain on the above mentioned days.
Pic credits Nwp imd