Rajkumar Chavan

IT Professional | Interested in Investing | Momentum, Long Term Investor | Bullish on 🇮🇳. Views are personal.

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

🌟 Milestone Achieved! 🌟
I've reached the 1 Crore (Equity + MF) mark in my investment journey, This achievement is a testament to the power of patience, dedications , and consistent effort. Here's to many more milestones and continued growth.
1/n

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@ujwal_kr Medium-sized entry. Strong volume, tight risk, and constructive price action with tight closes over the last few sessions. After a healthy post-rally consolidation, the stock is now near the 10DMA (blue).add aggressively once it breaks above the mother candle on convincing vol

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@AnkurPatel59 Sir, how does down fill function? Do you have a video that explains its operation?

[abhay jain @abhayjainp]

Data Center proxies are outperforming broader markets, so i created a basket of key beneficiaries.

Players i am tracking and notes:

[Rajkumar PR @RajkumarPR8]

Journey of 10L invested in Midcap fund 10 years back. Many investors are worried today abt mkt volatility.

Mkts always reward the patient investors in the long term

The journey was not smooth at all!
10L grew 70-80% by 2018, fell to 10L by 2020 March (COVID). Bounced again in Dec 2020

Grew ~4-6X (in 8yrs) by Sep 2024 & today we are almost at the same level of 5-6X in Average

Impressive work by @NipponIndiaMF @SunilBSinghania @EdelweissMF @iRadhikaGupta @avasthiniranjan @hdfcmf @KotakMF @NileshShah68

When you have a long term view, any market volatility shouldn't impact you in wealth creation journey

[Vivek @Vivek_Investor]

This is the Portfolio of Raamdeo Agrawal Ji from 1987-2017.

Ups & Downs are part of the game. Never quit.

[Radhika Gupta @iRadhikaGupta]

The market hasn't made money for 18 months!

Since I am hearing this quite a bit, a perspective on what historically followed the "dead 18 month period".

Source: @EdelweissMF

[Intrinsic Compounding @soicfinance]

Capex numbers for 2026

Amazon $200 Billion
Alphabet $185 Billion
Meta between $115-$135 Billion
Microsoft at $120 Billion

Capex pegged by hyperscalers are $650 Billion

Many more winners will emerge in the data center buildout phase.

From storage, to optics, to power plant equipment suppliers and much more. Even base metal suppliers shall do well.

Unprecedented tailwinds for Proxies

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@ItsVinay01 In a sector like solar, which is largely a commodity-style business, valuations tend to mean-revert once the hype phase is over. Up to 2024, the market has already assigned valuations factoring in the next 2–3 years of expected growth.

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@ItsVinay01 They have already priced in the solar theme. Waaree delivered multibagger returns during 2021–2024, and at peak valuation it was trading close to 250x P/E, which shows the market had already discounted strong growth for the next few years.

[Vivek @Vivek_Investor]

🔥 🔥

From "The Joys Of Compounding"

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@ItsVinay01 In TA terms, how do you objectively identify laggards and avoid false pullback entries?
Are there specific rules you use around relative strength vs index, 50/200DMA behavior, vols contraction/expansion or base quality that signal a stock is only ‘calling’ but not worth entering?

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@ujwal_kr One of subsidiary is expected to full operate from Q3. mentioned in AR.

[Intrinsic Compounding @soicfinance]

10 Vital Things To Check Before Investing In Any Business Or Stock

Here’s a practical checklist to level up your stock selection process-

1) Past Revenue Growth

Check revenue growth over the last 3–5 years. Double-digit CAGR is preferred.

For cyclical companies — study how they perform in upcycles and downcycles. Studying old cycles can give you a clue about how future ones might play out.

2) Competitive Intensity

How many players are there in the industry? The lesser the better. If there are a lot of players, check if everyone makes money or not? Competitive intensity matters a lot. Also check if the business you are studying has something unique like — cost advantage, brand, distribution, etc.

3) Consistency Of Margins

Are the margins volatile or consistent? Check the margins of the last 10 years. If current margins are unusually high, don’t overpay. Margins eventually revert. Buy when they’re expanding — not peaking.

4) Operating Leverage

Look for companies where fixed costs are done & sales are now scaling. Capex cycles and management commentary will help you to spot this. Getting this right can lead to powerful re-ratings.

5) Check The Cash Flows

Is the company able to convert its EBITDA into cash flows? Some companies have epic income statements and profits. However, when you look at their cash flows, everything is stuck in the working capital. This is an important question to ask when looking at stocks.

6) Market Penetration

How much headroom is left to grow? If a product has >90% market penetration, growth might be limited. But companies creating new categories can grow exponentially.

7) Focus On Volume Growth

Revenue = Price × Volume

The best quality of growth is when the number of units sold or volumes sold keeps going up. Double digit volume growth over an extended period of time can lead to big winners in the stock market.

8) B2C > B2B > B2G

Generally B2C valuations are > B2B Valuations > B2G Valuations. Thus, if you see consumption businesses growing at double digits, do not ignore them!

9) Margin Of Safety

Have a Margin Of Safety or be cautious of the valuations you are paying for a stock. You can be right on all the things but one can forget that sometimes accidents happen. At high prices, small mistakes might lead to derating of PE Ratio. A great business bought at the wrong price may prove to be a bad investment.

10) Learn Stage Analysis

Learning Stage Analysis is a blessing for fundamental investors who are good at valuing companies. It will help you to understand where the stock is in its cycle.

Few books which can help you to understand the cycle of a stock from fundamental and technical perspective- 1) Understanding Michael Porter by Joan Magretta, 2) Capital Returns by Edward Chancellor and 3) Secrets For Profiting In Bull and Bear Markets from Stan Weinstein.

Hope this post gave you a rough checklist to evaluate stocks better!

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@ItsVinay01 One more example ACE during the same time
-- One of Multi beggar in 23-24.

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@ItsVinay01 Happy birthday Vinay..🎉

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@Investor_Mohit A couple stocks made Bullish Engulfing on a weekly basis.

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

Metal n Mining

[Vinay @ItsVinay01]

What do we look for as a Trigger in leaders for the Next bull run ?

Growth possibility over next 3-5 years, longer the better.

Sectors with growth coming for 3-5 years becomes possible candidates for rerating over the time.

Go through Metal and Mining companies, many names are expanding there capacities drastically over next 3-4 years.

Technically also they are showing leading characteristics.

[Rajkumar Chavan @rajchavan82]

@ADX_Learner Seems like we will see these levels...

[True market Leader @TmarketL]

Great books

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Solar electricity will become by far the biggest source of power for civilization