Rajpurohit

Indian Hindu, born in the US. Thinking about foreign policy, Indian and US politics, tech, and markets. Ex-Meta, ex-Wall Street. MA IR, BA Econ. Views mine 🌎

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

Jai Shri Ganesh Ji
We Hindus recognize Lord Ganesh as the god of auspicious beginnings
Believe it's fitting for my first post while also on my current trip to India with my beloved grandparents during Ganesh Chaturthi
One of my familys favorite Jodhpur ancestral mandirs

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@pdicarlotrader The indicator that I prefer to watch is bonds and they seem to me to be talking a lot

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@leadlagreport The way I see it the bond market is the correction of the entire economy

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@KobeissiLetter The signs are literally telling you what's coming next in the global economy. The bond market is in my opinion the finest indicator that everyone loves to ignore

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@championswimmer The mysteries of the market are great and many

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

Everyone is watching amazon and apple earnings today but I will be watching the bank of Japan meeting today. The BOJ could very well decide the market momentum based on their rate decisions.
$AMZN $MSFT #BOJ

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@GerberKawasaki @GerberKawasaki but doesn't this mean we banking a whole lot of risk mitigation on both parties doing what is in their best interest, which may not be the case. Regardless every war is settled with a negotiation.

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@BradDijon47s @NoLimitGains And let's follow that reasoning on energy, oil prices are a coiled viper and globally we are still looking at potentially very odd spreads for a long time, if the conflict continues

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@zerohedge As they say easy come easy go

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@chandra84512220 Namaste and hello

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

Jai Shri Ganesh Ji
We Hindus recognize Lord Ganesh as the god of auspicious beginnings
Believe it's fitting for my first post while also on my current trip to India with my beloved grandparents during Ganesh Chaturthi
One of my familys favorite Jodhpur ancestral mandirs

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@satyanadella Never bet against nadella $MSFT

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

In my opinion the Fed just reinforced what the world hasn't fully priced in. The paradigm has changed.
1) Rates may stay higher for longer — as they may need to in a healthy economy. The free-money era was the anomaly, not the baseline.

2) Japan is out of perpetual deflation. The last anchor of cheap global capital is lifting.

3) The megacaps that held more cash than small countries' GDPs are pouring it into the AI arms race. The fortress balance sheet era is ending.

4) German and European fiscal prudence is giving way to spending. The world's most disciplined saver may now be borrowing.

This market will demand maneuverability, maturity, and a great deal of deference to history.
$SPY $QQQ #FOMC #AI

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

The market, like life, hands out different rewards for the same deed.
Google raised its capex guidance and lost 7%. Microsoft just posted a $90B quarter, ran Azure past $100B, guided capex higher for next year — and the after-hours tape is applauding.
The difference is not the spending. It is the trust in the operator doing the spending. One promised free cash flow stays positive. The other let it go negative.
Worst Mag7 stock of the first half in my opinion. Three straight quarters of beat-and-drop. Tonight that streak may have ended. The world is still underestimating Satya Nadella.
$MSFT $GOOGL

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@Mr_Derivatives Worst losing streak since 2016, and the Fed just looked at it — inflation above 4, oil at 83 — and didn't raise or cut anyway.

What strikes me is the messaging. Nobody is coming to catch this one. The market gets to find the floor by itself.
$QQQ #FOMC

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

Alas, the position of Volcker's heir remains unfilled. Inflation above 4, oil at 83, a committee full of hawkish dots — and no hike.

The bonanza gets its extension. Somewhere, Volcker's spirit sits unimpressed.

$SPY $QQQ #FOMC

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@unusual_whales This is what deleveraging looks like in a market a fraction our size. If this ferry reaches American and Indian shores, the margin calls won't be a wave — they'll be a tide going out with everyone.

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@zerohedge Ask and ye shall receive, he is setting the new normal for the market and the market needs to accept it or be caught unaware.

[Rajpurohit @rajpurohit]

@rishibagree Believe it or not, this is what a very large part of India thinks of the CJP farce. India watchers need to give the indian political median a lot more credit. #cjp