Rational Investor

Long Term Investor
Believer of one universe one energy

Tweets about stocks are educational not recommendation

[Rational Investor @rakeshkr87]

Learn from the legend - Vellayan Subbiah , how to win in business and life.Great insights
#CGPower #Cholamandalam #TII

https://t.co/iRBO1biS93

[Arun Mukherjee @Arunstockguru]

From my personal stock market learnings. Hope it helps. Also do add your learnings too so that those too gets added and we have a great checklist in hand.

[Rational Investor @rakeshkr87]

@wittysiddharth Doing hatha yoga practice daily for 2-3 hours.Body & mind is calm and meditative effortlessly,still long way to go
would suggest start slowly & gradually increase the sadhana time.Mind can't grasp anything about meditation,it can work on existing data only so never trust it .

[Rational Investor @rakeshkr87]

@DeeptiLyer @DelhiPolice @PMOIndia Please check authenticty of this post. Post is shown as advertisement in twitter feed.

[Branko @brankopetric00]

You will get a question you cannot answer. Every single interview. Here is how to not blow it.

Wrong move: freezing, bluffing, or making something up. Interviewers smell a bluff instantly and now they doubt everything else you said.

Right move, say this:

"I have not worked with that directly, but here is how I would reason about it."

Then actually reason. Out loud. Break the problem down. Compare it to something you do know.

Example. They ask about a tool you never used. You say: "Never touched it, but it sounds like it solves the same problem as X, which I have used. So I would expect it to handle Y and Z."

That answer is stronger than a memorized correct one. It shows you can think when you do not have the answer handed to you.

That is literally the job.

[Kuntal Shah @Kuntalhshah]

Most investors sell their best compounders way too early. They see “fair value” in their mind and exit lock, stock, and barrel. Do NOT sell merely because something is fairly valued. Why?

As a great business compounds earnings and scales, it attracts big institutional money. Their required rate of return is much lower than yours. They happily pay higher multiples → your “fairly valued” stock keeps running. This is literally how multi-baggers are made after the initial re-rating.

Combine the 4 zones with Reverse DCF, instead of building a dreamy DCF to justify the price. Use reverse DCF — not to justify the price, but to interrogate whether the market’s embedded expectations can realistically come true.
Ask: “Under what conditions would the market’s current expectations actually come true?” If those conditions look unrealistic → you’re probably in Zone 3 or 4.

Liquidity and Interest rates are the gravity that pulls all these zones. When rates rise and liquidity dries, the zones shift left, and that's the time to sell.

Some practical aspects of invetsing and portfolio construction

Model 1: Use AI like a Ferrari, not autopilot
AI is incredibly powerful for retail investors — but only if you respect its limits.

• Data cleaning is 80% of the work (don’t dump raw 600-page PDFs)
• Create a curated “binder” document first
• Make the model confirm it understood context
• Run 4-5 LLMs as a “council” playing devil’s advocate
• Then apply human judgment, experience & justification.

AI narrows the search dramatically. It does not replace thinking.

Model 2: Ruthlessly eliminate 99.5% of stocks first. There are 4,000+ listed companies. You only need ~20 high-conviction ideas.

Eliminate top-down on fragility, leverage, stressed promoters, anything outside your competence or time horizon. This removes ~97% of the universe.

Then go deep, not wide. Missing some gems is a feature, not a bug. The science ends at 97-98%. After that, qualitative judgment (promoter behavior, runway, treatment of minorities) takes over. Investing is the last liberal art.

Model 4: Prepare for asymmetric bets (don’t try to predict).

You cannot predict black swans. But you can prepare. Best asymmetric opportunities appear when frightened or leveraged sellers are forced to sell (2008, 2020).

• Map the full range of outcomes + probabilities
• Seek disconfirming evidence (when you like a company, read only the bad reports)
• Do a pre-mortem before investing
• Fix a ruthless sell trigger in advance
• Keep a “tenth man” in your process

Downside should be finite and knowable. Upside can be open-ended.

Model 5: Portfolio construction & temperament. Concentration is powerful but behavioural, not scientific.
• Barbell: ~80% in 7-8 stable core compounders (sleep-well-at-night) + ~20% in 10-12 small optionality bets
• Only 16-18 genuinely non-correlated ideas are enough
• As your capital base compounds and you have more to lose → become more conservative (he now leans 20:80 instead of 80:20)

Invest bottom-up, but always worry top-down.

These 5 models work together: AI helps you process information faster →Ruthless filtering reduces noise →
Valuation zones + reverse DCF keep you disciplined →
Asymmetric bet thinking protects capital → Barbell portfolio + temperament lets you stay invested through cycles.

The goal isn’t to be right on every stock. It’s to build a process where good things happen more often than bad ones over decades. The biggest edge in investing today is not more information. It’s better filters, clearer mental models, and stronger temperament.

https://t.co/0etO30hyb0

[Meet Shah @MeetshahV]

Good Read Here.

[Antifragile Thinking @unseenvalue]

I may be invested in some or all of the companies mentioned. This is not a recommendation in any form.

The list is not exhaustive and will evolve as more data is incorporated.

[Mohnish Pabrai @MohnishPabrai]

This was my 3rd session with @ShaanVP - and the most enjoyable. Esp. because of the surprise letter from @gspier that I first saw and read during the session. The letter starts at 1:28:07

https://t.co/4URH5qqdyE

[Antifragile Thinking @unseenvalue]

I may be invested in some or all of these. Nothing here is a recommendation. I’ll be sharing the 91/100 candidate soon, along with both the thesis and antithesis.

[Allen Braden @allen_explains]

50 WEBSITES GOOGLE DOESN'T WANT YOU TO KNOW

1. 12ft. io — bypass any paywall
2. libgen. is — millions of free textbooks
3. sci-hub. se — free research papers
4. alternativeto. net — find free app alternatives
5. justwatch. com — find where to stream anything
6. archive. org — access any old webpage ever
7. gutenberg. org — 70K free classic books
8. pdfdrive. com — free PDF downloads
9. openculture. com — free courses from top unis
10. wolframalpha. com — solve any math instantly
11. photopea. com — free Photoshop in browser
12. squoosh. app — compress any image free
13. remove. bg — remove image backgrounds free
14. cleanup. pictures — erase objects from photos
15. unscreen. com — remove video backgrounds
16. carbon. now. sh — turn code into art
17. ray. so — beautiful code screenshots
18. shots. so — free product mockups
19. smartmockups. com — mockups without Photoshop
20. haveibeenpwned. com — check if you were hacked
21. virustotal. com — scan any file for malware
22. privnote. com — send self destructing messages
23. temp-mail. org — disposable email instantly
24. file. io — share files that auto delete
25. archive. ph — save any webpage forever
26. similarsites. com — find any site alternatives
27. radio. garden — listen to any radio worldwide
28. everynoise. com — explore every music genre
29. tunefind. com — find songs from any show
30. musicforprogramming. net — music to focus with
31. mynoise. net — custom focus soundscapes
32. coffitivity. com — cafe sounds for productivity
33. elicit. org — AI research paper assistant
34. consensus. app — search what science agrees on
35. connectedpapers. com — map research visually
36. semanticscholar. org — free academic search
37. scispace. com — understand any research paper
38. summarize. tech — summarize any YouTube video
39. phind. com — AI search for developers
40. regex101. com — test any regex instantly
41. codebeautify. org — format any code cleanly
42. jsonformatter. org — read JSON like a human
43. explainshell. com — understand terminal commands
44. raindrop. io — bookmark manager that works
45. downdetector. com — check if any site is down
46. tineye. com — reverse image search
47. fast. com — check your internet speed
48. smallpdf. com — edit PDFs free
49. ilovepdf. com — merge and split PDFs
50. 10minutemail. com — temp email in seconds

The internet is bigger than Google shows you.

Most people never leave the first page.

[Arti Shah @TechByArti]

1. The Brutal Reality Check:

1. "Act as a financial strategist. Using my income [amount], fixed costs [list] and current side income [amount] - lay out my true financial position. Show me the three biggest opportunities I'm overlooking and the one change to make this month to get closer to financial freedom."

👉 Most people dodge this conversation. Claude doesn't judge. It just hands you the truth.

[Tommi Pedruzzi @TommiPedruzzi]

If I got laid off tomorrow & had to replace my salary in 60 days, here's exactly what I'd do:

1. Open Google trends. Search this:

[Ekansh Mittal @EkanshMittal_KW]

8 Signs Promoter Selling Is a Warning — Not Routine

This week: Check promoter shareholding across 4-8 quarters

It takes 10 minutes and free on BSE/NSE, Screener

If you find 3+ signs below → Dig deeper before the next quarterly result

1. Promoter stake down 2-3%+ in 12 months without open offer or buyback
→ Routine tax planning is 0.5-1%. Consistent reduction is a signal

2. Stake sold in small tranches — ₹5-10 crore each, every quarter
→ Designed to stay below block deal disclosure thresholds, stealth exit

3. Promoter pledging >50% of promoter holding
→ Already leveraged against shares they own. Margin calls = forced selling

4. Pledge % increasing every quarter even as stock price rises
→ Rising price should reduce pledge ratio. If it's still rising, new loans are being taken

5. Capex guidance given but promoters selling while "expansion" is ongoing
→ Promoters selling into a fundraise story while diluting retail confidence

6. Promoter group entity transfers between related parties before public sale
→ Reorganising before exit. Watch for "inter-se transfers" followed by market selling

7. Salary + sitting fees to promoter family rising faster than PAT
→ Extraction through the P&L rather than shareholding changes

8. Promoter not participating in rights issue
→ Dilution without contribution. Lets public shareholders fund growth while they step back

Research desk -> https://t.co/WyQP2Q0mgT

SEBI RA - Ekansh Mittal Proprietor Mittal Consulting, INH100001690

[Rational Investor @rakeshkr87]

@AimInvestments Yes

[pratik.jain @pratikjain1310]

"The Joy of investing is the joy of becoming a good person"
~Sanjoy Bhattacharya

Timeless lessons!!

Vry rarely we find someone so honest & outspoken of own mistakes, journey,etc

https://t.co/de93ozDtJ9

@unseenvalue
@chokhani_manish
@nrmangal

[Mahesh 🇮🇳 @invest_mutual]

Super stuff. Do listen to him.
The points he makes are 👌👌👌

[Value | Compounding @oldschoolinvest]

Portfolio's return from:(2018-2025)
Sep 18 to Sep 19: 26%
Sep 19 to Sep 20: 25%
Sep 20 to Sep 21: 64%
Sep 21 to Sep 22: 12%
Sep 22 to Sep 23: 10%
Sep 23 to Sep 24: 99%
Sep 24 to Sep 25: -6.5%

7 years CAGR: 28.93%.
P.S.: I am just lucky. God has been kind.🙏

[Value | Compounding @oldschoolinvest]

I’m going to create a thread of books I’ve read and can recommend to the investor community.🧵👇

[Antifragile Thinking @unseenvalue]

The lens that worked for Laurus in 2023 and Neuland in 2022 … was completely sector-agnostic.

It wasn’t about pharma.
It wasn’t about molecules.
It was about terminal value compounding.

Now… let me show you how that exact same lens applies just as powerfully to Sansera, Unimech, Azad, and Sona and dozens of "hybrid CDMOs" globally.

Different industries.
Same frame.
Same game. Framing business uncertainty!

[Value | Compounding @oldschoolinvest]

Update: I have completely exited Neuland today. It has been my fastest ever 25x (in 4 years).
P.S.: There is nothing wrong with the business but I got a better opportunity hence I sold.