When two "strongman" styles of leadership clash, the danger isn't necessarily that they want to fight, but that they feel they cannot afford to look weak.
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If IRAN gives in to U.S. demands while under the pressure of a 15% tariff and a naval blockade, it looks like a total surrender, which could trigger internal unrest in Iran.
Trump has campaigned on being the ultimate "deal-maker." If he walks away with nothing after sending an armada to the Gulf, his critics will call him a "paper tiger."
Iran is under immense economic pressure from the new tariffs and the blockade , they are likely looking for a way to save face while making enough concessions to stop the bombs from falling.
However, the "wild card" is the Feb 26 meeting.
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Unlike previous years, the U.S. has made it clear that "some" enrichment is no longer acceptable. If Iran doesn't budge, the U.S. may feel forced to "delete" the Fordow and Natanz facilities to maintain its credibility.
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If the Geneva talks fail and Iran refuses to stop enrichment, we might not see a "total war" (with ground troops), but rather targeted strikes.
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