Ralf Elfving

Building, and running 12 ultramarathons in 2026
Progress: 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️
Prev. data/product @shopify @klarna & @gadget_dev

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@vaesmall @stspanho I'd assume it works for cycling as is.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

Shop Pay has higher conversion rate. Growing Shop Pay user base means more users that will convert better, in the future. Sounds like the 1st order impact on conversion wasn't negative (see Tobi's tweet), 2nd order should be positive in the long term through better conversion from more Shop Pay users.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@robjama Real crazy? City Hall. The contrast.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@ian_heyting @JonFraserTF High speed rail will be a slow-moving train wreck, figuratively speaking.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@tobi Libs said they would create high-paying jobs, and they are delivering.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

We have a spending problem, not a revenue problem.

[John Ruffolo @ruffoloj]

@digestibledata I dont think thats the point. The taxation system is in fact progressive. People who make more pay more disproportionately. And Canada is already one of the highest in the world. The issue is spending. We cannot continue to spend without serious repercussions.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

Building something from scratch and making the first X iterations that impacts 100s of early adopter customers will be faster than adding new features or iterating on an existing codebase with 1M users that rely on your product and how it has behaved for years.

The cost of change increases with scale and complexity, and coordination cost grows with a larger org. AI does a lot to bend the curve, but there still is a curve. Or to use physics: AI is a force, but bigger orgs are higher-mass objects so they have more inertia to overcome. The same push produces less acceleration.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@williambmclean @fortelabs This is the way.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@harleyf @Shopify The rest of Canada thanks you, they just don't know it yet.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@iannuttall This is so annoying. It was annoying pre-Gemini.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@Bonthoux @tobi There's a big window between now and the Dutch government admitting it's a clear failure that nations like Canada can use as cover to introduce something similar.

[Joe Wallin @joewallin]

Let's take a look at how Seattle's DoorDash law actually turned out.

In 2024, Seattle implemented "PayUp" — a minimum wage law for food delivery drivers, setting the rate at $26.40/hour. The intent was to protect workers. Here's what actually happened:

DoorDash added a $5 fee to every order. Customers stopped ordering. Within two weeks, 30,000 fewer orders. UberEats volume dropped 30%. Drivers — the people the law was supposed to help — saw their available deliveries cut in half and earnings per hour fall 25%.

A new National Bureau of Economic Research study confirmed what the numbers already showed: higher per-delivery pay was completely offset by fewer deliveries and lower tips. Active drivers saw zero net gain in monthly earnings.

KUOW reported this week that two years in, the results are undeniable — Seattle is now the most expensive delivery market in the country. Denver, Portland, and San Francisco, cities without these laws, saw delivery revenue grow 20-40%. Seattle stagnated.

The parallel to what's happening with WA tax proposals is obvious. SB 6346 would impose a 9.9% income tax on high earners. The QSBS add-back bills would strip federal tax exclusions from founders. The argument is always "just a small tax on those who can afford it." But capital moves. Founders move. Companies incorporate elsewhere.

The DoorDash data gives us a controlled experiment: same company, same product, same time period, different policy environments. The city with the heaviest regulation saw the worst outcomes — including for the workers it tried to protect.

Incentives matter. Every time.

https://t.co/0rusleqBbk

#StartupLaw #WashingtonState #PolicyMatters #QSBS #Founders #waleg

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@Beevor12 @ahesselbom Han pekar på en fråga om principer.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@MattSpoke But it sure feels good! And the people like it!

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@KerryBurgess @Tesco Legendary.

[Kai Baumgartner @kaibaumgartner]

Taxing the Unrealized: A View on the Netherlands’ Planned 36% Capital Levy 🇳🇱

The Dutch merchant tradition was built on one principle: tax realized trade, not hypothetical valuation. A 36% tax on unrealized capital gains is not a technical tweak — it is a structural intervention into capital formation.

I) The Mechanism

a) Starting position
500 shares
Value Jan 1, 2028: €50,000
Value Jan 1, 2029: €100,000

Unrealized gain: €50,000
You did not sell. The state treats it as income.

b) Exemption
€3,600 (married)
Taxable: €46,400
Tax at 36%: €16,704, payable in May. Liquidity irrelevant.

c) Market correction scenario
Portfolio falls to €60,000.
Tax bill remains €16,704 (based on peak valuation).

d) Forced sale
After paying tax: €43,296 left.
Shares drop from 500 to 360.
28% of ownership permanently gone.

e) Economic result
Final value: €43,296
Original cost: €50,000
Net: –€6,704

A €10,000 real gain becomes a loss. This is not taxation of profit. It is confiscation of volatility.

II) Why This Is Destabilizing

a) It Violates the Realization Principle
Prices reflect expectations, time preference, and risk. Taxing unrealized gains assumes certainty where none exists. It turns market signals into tax liabilities.

b) It Forces Pro-Cyclical Selling
Bull markets expand the tax base. Corrections force liquidation into weakness. Volatility is amplified, and long-term holders are penalized.

c) It Destroys Compounding
Capital formation requires reinvestment and deferred taxation. Annual taxation of appreciation weakens equity ownership and private wealth accumulation.

III) Outlook

If capital is taxed independent of liquidity, behavior adapts.

Migration
HNWIs shift domicile toward lower-tax jurisdictions (Switzerland, UAE, Singapore). Holding structures move abroad.

Wealth Drain
Entrepreneurs delay IPOs, avoid domestic listings, and build offshore.

Money Drain
Capital rotates from public equities into private vehicles, hard assets, gold, and bitcoin — assets harder to mark annually.

Brain Drain
Talent follows capital. When upside is taxed before realization, risk-adjusted innovation declines.

IV) The Deeper Shift

This policy moves:
- From taxing transactions → to taxing appreciation itself.
- From taxing income → to taxing expectation.

The Netherlands 🇳🇱 prospered through merchant accounting, realized profit, and capital preservation. Detaching taxation from realization may raise short-term revenue.

- Medium term, it raises emigration.
- Long term, it erodes the capital base.
- And capital is what sustains prosperity.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@forgebitz The government will pass legislation that requires blue collar work to be done by a certified blue collar worker.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@SamMendelsohnW6 You're describing @gadget_dev

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@livetefterfire Det som kan gå riktigt fel är att andra länder tar efter.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

@SimJoSt @rdraward @Shopify If you know anyone please send them my way, looking for early adopters for feedback as I roll it out on app store.

[Ralf Elfving @ralfelfving]

Built a real-time globe activity feed for a project that didn't launch. Turned it into the @Shopify app Glowb, a live order feed that lights up the shipping location of new orders (and more)

100% novelty, but also 100% delight. :) Any brand interested in giving it a spin?