Jake Randall

Investing in marketplaces, fin-tech, health-tech, and more.

Committed to incremental self-improvement.

All views expressed are my own.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@AravSrinivas Do hedge fund analysts just put market share on line graphs and pie charts?

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@icon Icon just changed the game for brands looking to scale ad creation. Big moves happening.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@BasedTorba The rift explained:

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

Trump’s Fracturing Coalition
In 2024, Trump rode an unlikely alliance to victory. Working-class populists and a small group of influential technocrats banded together to deliver a MAGA mandate.

This coalition swept Trump back into the White House. But months into his term, the seams are splitting. Aggressive tariffs, pressure on NATO, and a flood of executive orders targeting deregulation and austerity measures have sparked tension within his ranks.

The real fight isn’t with Democrats, who remain adrift. It’s inside Trump’s own coalition. Two factions, the Carhartt Army and the Barbour Brigade, are attempting to pull the country in opposite directions.

This piece dissects their makeup, motivations, and the fault lines threatening to break them apart.

It ends with a contentious prediction.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@JosephPolitano Explanation below:

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

Trump’s Fracturing Coalition
In 2024, Trump rode an unlikely alliance to victory. Working-class populists and a small group of influential technocrats banded together to deliver a MAGA mandate.

This coalition swept Trump back into the White House. But months into his term, the seams are splitting. Aggressive tariffs, pressure on NATO, and a flood of executive orders targeting deregulation and austerity measures have sparked tension within his ranks.

The real fight isn’t with Democrats, who remain adrift. It’s inside Trump’s own coalition. Two factions, the Carhartt Army and the Barbour Brigade, are attempting to pull the country in opposite directions.

This piece dissects their makeup, motivations, and the fault lines threatening to break them apart.

It ends with a contentious prediction.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@balajis My take on the divide driving discord on the American right - trying to please two factions at once.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

Trump’s Fracturing Coalition
In 2024, Trump rode an unlikely alliance to victory. Working-class populists and a small group of influential technocrats banded together to deliver a MAGA mandate.

This coalition swept Trump back into the White House. But months into his term, the seams are splitting. Aggressive tariffs, pressure on NATO, and a flood of executive orders targeting deregulation and austerity measures have sparked tension within his ranks.

The real fight isn’t with Democrats, who remain adrift. It’s inside Trump’s own coalition. Two factions, the Carhartt Army and the Barbour Brigade, are attempting to pull the country in opposite directions.

This piece dissects their makeup, motivations, and the fault lines threatening to break them apart.

It ends with a contentious prediction.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

[6] Personal Prediction: Bet on the Evil Empire

In the long history of battles between the wealthy and powerful minority vs. the poor and meek majority, the elite have dominated the matchup thus far.

I don't think the decision-making apparatuses that operate around the Presidency and government are built to tolerate successive multi-trillion-dollar downward swings in the economy for long.

If Trump's populist experiment causes too much damage to equity markets and the real economy, incumbent elites (with vested interests worth gargantuan sums of money) will exert maximal influence to put a stop to asset holders' pain.

My bet is that 10% further down on the SPY and Trump's coalition will fracture to a nightmarish degree.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

Trump’s Fracturing Coalition
In 2024, Trump rode an unlikely alliance to victory. Working-class populists and a small group of influential technocrats banded together to deliver a MAGA mandate.

This coalition swept Trump back into the White House. But months into his term, the seams are splitting. Aggressive tariffs, pressure on NATO, and a flood of executive orders targeting deregulation and austerity measures have sparked tension within his ranks.

The real fight isn’t with Democrats, who remain adrift. It’s inside Trump’s own coalition. Two factions, the Carhartt Army and the Barbour Brigade, are attempting to pull the country in opposite directions.

This piece dissects their makeup, motivations, and the fault lines threatening to break them apart.

It ends with a contentious prediction.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

[5] The Breaking Point: A Coalition on the Edge
Donald Trump’s presidency rests on a fragile alliance between Populists and Technocrats, two factions with irreconcilable visions. Populists demand tariffs, border security, and economic nationalism to shield working-class Americans from globalization’s fallout. Technocrats, wealthy innovators like Elon Musk, push for free markets, deregulation, and policies favoring growth over protectionism. These aren’t just policy rifts, they’re clashing worldviews: government as savior versus government as obstacle.

Recent multi-trillion-dollar market drops have tilted the balance toward the Technocrats. Each dip amplifies their influence, nudging Trump toward market-friendly moves over populist promises. Their ambition goes further: they aim to swap old corporate giants, Boeing and Raytheon, for disruptors like SpaceX and Anduril. It’s a slick power play, less about public good than replacing one elite with another.

Trump’s instincts lean populist, directing his early-term energy towards immigration and protectionism, but market pressures test his resolve. With Democrats sidelined, the real fight is internal. His coalition, held together by the President's forceful personality, teeters on this fault line.

Whether it holds or fractures will shape his presidency and American conservatism’s future.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@SaladBarFan Heavy rail. We need to be rail-maxxing.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@paulg Mimetic contagion and mimetic recovery

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

I view use of LLMs for knowledge work like use of an exoskeleton for physical work.

You can achieve more using technology but the natural muscles underlying the technical exterior will atrophy.

Sometimes, I think you have to tackle a problem without LLM-guidance in order to actually learn something.

Also LLMs take you along highly-probable chains of logic, so maybe they naturally prevent you from arriving at contrarian and/or ground-breaking perspectives.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@growing_daniel Also maybe private fire prevention and fire fighting services are warranted in a state as defunct as California.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@levelsio I'm a massive advocate of the white shoe but I don't know why they seem to work so well.

When you say "they are the secret trick" are you alluding to any scientific rationale?

Curious why the white shoe is such a staple for men across class and culture.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

@greg_price11 The beginning of the American Imperial phase.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

Deer Valley does an incredible job managing daily skier populations. They also prevent the scourge of snowboarders from entering the resort (a wise and brave choice).

However, they also charge $300-600 per day during peak season for a lift ticket. Season passes are ~$3K. With an Ikon pass, you can get 7 days in at DV (and ski elsewhere) for ~$1.5K.

I hope the future of American skiing is not one where only the exorbitantly wealthy can attend. Pricing out normal people to prevent lines is not the answer and is not what skiing is about.

[Jake Randall @randalljm2]

Petition to create a walkable NYC-density urban center somewhere near San Diego.

An American Tel Aviv that produces elite startups, while simultaneously de-nerdifying the technology industry due to high proximity to some of the most attractive women on the face of the Earth.

Endless possibilities.