Roy Gulluoglu

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[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Rationale is my research service that provides actionable trade ideas and in-depth market analysis across equities, FX, futures, ETFs, and crypto.📊📉

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[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

The $ABBV / $MRK ratio is forming a symmetrical triangle following a prolonged downtrend. A breakout to the upside would signal a potential shift in relative performance within the healthcare sector.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

The $XOM / $CVX breakdown is following through. The divergence within the #oil industry might continue to deepen.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

The $XOM / $CVX ratio is forming a symmetrical triangle following a strong uptrend, with price compressing toward the lower boundary. A breakdown from this structure would favor $CVX over $XOM on a relative basis.

The technical setup is clear. What is driving the divergence within the same sector is the more interesting question.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$IWM / $SPY ratio breakout from the three-month-long rectangle chart pattern remains valid!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$BAC / $XLF ratio is breaking out of a symmetrical triangle. $BAC may outperform the broader financials sector.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

The $ADBE / $CRM ratio is breaking down below a well-tested support level. A divergence developing within the same sector.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Formasyonun teorik fiyat hedefi, trade edenler için bir tercih mekanizmasından çok potansiyel bir hedef vermek amacıyla kullanılıyor.

‘Tercih etme’ kısmında ise RS ve benzeri indikatörlere ek olarak makro görünümden sektörler arası farklılaşmalara kadar birçok farklı etmen devreye giriyor. Genel piyasa koşullarına göre hangi kriterlerin daha fazla ağırlık kazanacağı ve tercih mekanizmasının nasıl şekilleneceği değişkenlik gösterebiliyor.

Örnek vermek gerekirse, iki adet rectangle chart pattern adayı varsa ve piyasa koşulları risk-on ise, bu iki aday arasından defansif sektörde yer alan hisseyi (şirkete özgü güçlü bir katalist bulunmadığı sürece) tercih etmemeyi daha doğru buluyorum.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Trade Ideas Equities: TBBB(NYSE), BROS(NYSE), INTC(NASDAQ), AMT(NYSE), AKSA(BIST), MTY(TSX), MAU(TSX), 8316(TSE)
https://t.co/TuzoTzld1h

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

@ugurguray Evet, newsletter özelinde pure classical chart patterns paylaşıyorum.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

@ugurguray Çok teşekkürler 🙏

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$IWM / $SPY ratio is breaking out of a 3 month long rectangle chart pattern!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

The $IWM / $SPY ratio is consolidating within a rectangle pattern following a strong uptrend. If this structure acts as a continuation, it would favor small caps over the broader S&P 500 on a relative basis.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$BROS

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$TBBB

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$IBB - Biotech ETF is forming a symmetrical triangle just above the 200-day EMA(yellow line), with price action tightening. Monitoring the direction of the breakout.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

The $XOM / $CVX ratio is forming a symmetrical triangle following a strong uptrend, with price compressing toward the lower boundary. A breakdown from this structure would favor $CVX over $XOM on a relative basis.

The technical setup is clear. What is driving the divergence within the same sector is the more interesting question.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

The $IWM / $SPY ratio is consolidating within a rectangle pattern following a strong uptrend. If this structure acts as a continuation, it would favor small caps over the broader S&P 500 on a relative basis.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$NVDA / $QQQ ratio is back at a well-tested support level!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$MS - Cup & Handle chart pattern formation breakout then moved well. Monitoring the 10-day EMA(yellow line) as it managed to act as a support along the recent run up.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Trade Ideas Equities: CMP(NYSE), TAL(NYSE), FTNT(NASDAQ), CNOB(NASDAQ), MS(NYSE)

https://t.co/qcvR1vhRoq

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Trade Ideas Fx-Futures-Etf-Crypto: EURGBP, XPDUSD, XPTUSD, ITA(CBOE), UK100
https://t.co/Dn0Q9jLSWP

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Yes, that is exactly the tricky part. Yields and equities do not maintain a simple inverse relationship at all times.

When yields are rising on the back of structural growth, both can move higher simultaneously. However, the relationship becomes more complex when you decompose what is actually driving yields.

Nominal bond yields reflect three components: growth expectations, inflation expectations, and term premium. If the move is growth-driven, equities can continue to perform. The concern arises when rising yields are driven by term premium or persistent inflation expectations rather than growth. In that scenario, the discount rate applied to future earnings rises without a corresponding improvement in the earnings outlook, creating a genuine headwind for equity valuations regardless of near-term earnings momentum. This is why understanding what is behind a yield move matters as much as the move itself.

[MightyApe.x @0xMape]

@rationaletrade strong growth and earnings can still push stocks up even if this breaks to the upside