Roy Gulluoglu

Delivering multi-asset research & strategy

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Rationale is my research service that provides actionable trade ideas and in-depth market analysis across equities, FX, futures, ETFs, and crypto.📊📉

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https://t.co/yLH0zokPXB

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$ICLN Update!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$ICLN - iShare Global Clean energy ETF daily chart formed 6 month-long H&S top chart pattern formation.

A potential breakdown below the neckline would make the pattern act as a reversal. A potential breakout above right sholder would make the pattern act as a continuation.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Corn vs Wheat - Divergence in agricultural commodities!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Corn/Wheat ratio chart - $ZC_F / $ZW_F

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$IXJ Update!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$IXJ weekly chart

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$XMHQ Update!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$XMHQ - Breakout, pullback, resuming higher?

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Semiconductors are the center of attention for the AI cycle. I’ll try to tune out the noise and follow the price action on this chart.

The information I am willing to focus on:

1) $SMH - VanEck Semiconductor ETF daily chart is consolidating in a range and may form a symmetrical triangle.
2) It is currently finding support at the lower boundary, which lines up with the 200 day EMA, the main trend setter for me.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Cybersecurity is one of the hottest sectors this year, and $CRWD / $PANW ratio chart is testing the upper boundary of a year long range in the daily chart.

Let’s see if there is going to be a breakout or a continuation of the range bound activity.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$GOOG / $SPY update!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$GOOG / $SPY

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$ACWI / $GLD - A breakout would signal global equities outperforming gold.

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

$ACWI Rebounding from support.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$SPY / $GLD update!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$SPY / $GLD is testing resistance for the fourth time. Higher yields seem to be hurting #gold more than #equities. Let’s see if we get a breakout above this boundary.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$SMH / $SKYY - VanEck Semiconductor ETF vs First Trust Cloud Computing ETF daily chart is breaking the neckline of a H&S top.

Semiconductors divided by cloud. Is this a potential rotation from semis into cloud within the AI cycle?

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$KCCA (KraneShares California Carbon Allowance Strategy ETF) tracks California carbon allowance futures.

Weekly chart formed 20 month-long ascending traingle chart pattern acting as a reversal after aprior downtrend.

California is cutting the number of carbon allowances available by 11% per year through 2030, up from 4% before. Fewer permits, same number of emitters who legally need them. Less supply and ongoing demand could support higher futures prices over time. The triangle may be pricing that in.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$US10Y real yield weekly update. After the symmetrical triangle breakout, the yield pulled back and is finding support at the pattern high. If this continues, pressure on precious metals and long duration equities would increase.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Update on the US10Y real rate weekly chart!

For those interested in macro dynamics, understanding how real rates impact other financial instruments is crucial. Real rates are one of the most important macro variables to monitor. They represent the return an investor actually receives after adjusting for inflation, making them the primary driver of capital allocation decisions across asset classes.

To understand the relationship between yields and inflation expectations check the quoted post.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$IJH - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF daily chart formed a 4 month-long H&S top.

If it breaks out above the right shoulder (74.35), the pattern acts as a top failure. If it breaks below the neckline (71.55), the pattern acts as a top reversal.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$RDVY - First Trust Rising Dividend Achievers ETF daily chart formed a 3 month-long H&S top.

If it breaks out above the right shoulder (80.43), the pattern acts as a top failure. If it breaks below the neckline (78.44), the pattern acts as a top reversal.

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$XSW weekly chart. B/O Alert!

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

@offshoreboss 🙏

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Trade Ideas Equities: GEV(NYSE), BCPC(NASDAQ), SPOT(NYSE), PEGA(NASDAQ), VIST(NYSE)

https://t.co/sougFbbKEB

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$WTRG

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Trade Ideas Equities: $QBTS(#NYSE), $AL(NYSE), $WTRG(NYSE), $BWFG(#NASDAQ), $DESPC(BIST)
https://t.co/AUtPNRlfoM

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

$SIG

[Roy Gulluoglu @rationaletrade]

Trade Ideas Equities: SIG(NYSE), LW(NYSE), OGS(NYSE), DIN(NYSE), CORZ(NASDAQ), VFC(NYSE), CPA(NYSE)

https://t.co/1CtVaO2pgK