Raulin

The skydiver who steps out before big drawdowns 🪂
7 yrs allocating capital · upside when risk pays 📈
Stocks · Trends · real money, dated decisions

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Every rule I have was paid for with a loss.

None of them came from a book. They came from positions I held into conditions I hadn't understood, and from the bill that followed.

That's the only reason I trust them: each one has a receipt.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

When you finally realize a −50% loss needs a +100% gain to get even — that's the whole game.

Down 20, you need 25 to be flat. Down 35, you need 54. Down 50, you need to double.

The hole gets deeper faster than the climb gets easier. That's why I'd rather give up part of a rally than sit through the drop.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Trading is the only job where doing nothing can be the best decision of the year.

Activity feels like progress. But every trade you don't need costs you spread, attention, and the position you actually wanted to keep.

The plan tells me when to act. Not my boredom.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Sea Limited since April 2025: my signal +20%. Just holding: −17%.

Out at $163. From there it fell to $78 — I wasn't in it for a single day of that.

Four trades. Two worked, two cost me a few percent.

Follow and I'll tell you when the label changes.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

The "$1M by 65" table going around your feed runs on 15% a year.

The market has done about 10%.

That gap is the whole trick. At 15% an 18-year-old needs $11 a month to get to a million. At 10% it's $78 — seven times more. At 40 it's $754 a month instead of $308.

Nobody checks the rate. They just repost the table, and it quietly tells you that a million is easy.

It isn't easy. It's still possible, which is a different sentence.

I post the numbers with the assumption written next to them.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Monday +1%. Tuesday +2%. Wednesday +1%. Thursday +1%. Friday +2%.

7% a week. Compounded: $10,000 becomes $370,000 in a year and $500m in three.

If it were real they'd be the richest person alive, not selling you a course.

Follow if you want the version with the losses in it. That's the only kind I post.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

I only catch about 2/3 of every rally. I still end up with 2.5x the money.

Nasdaq, 26 years: $100k just held becomes $804k. Following the signal: over $2m.

The difference isn't the upside. It's the falls I wasn't in.

Follow and I'll tell you when the signal changes.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

You don't beat the market by being brave. You beat it by being out in time.

Conviction is not a risk process. A number is.

Mine tells me to step back long before it feels necessary — and that gap, between what feels right and what the level says, is where most of the damage happens.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Everyone's calling a crash. Nobody shows you the hedge.

Puts cost you time. Shorting can cost you the account. Mine is cash: 63% in early June, 64% into July, 64% on Sep 10 — the day before CPI. 27% the day after.

Next date: Oct 14.

Follow and I'll tell you when I go up in cash again. The number always comes with a date.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

POV: you realize you can beat the market with less upside — by skipping the drawdowns.

I give up part of every rally. What I get back is not sitting through the big drawdown years. Over time that trade pays.

Follow — I show the real decisions, with dates.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Will markets crash in 2027? I don't know. The month I'm watching is February.

Into the midterms the rally gets stretched. Then the Fed cuts into a slowdown, not into strength. Bad combination.

I don't trade a scenario. I trade the light in front of me.

Follow for the next one.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

POV: the bond market just flashed red — and you're not buying this dip.

Red light means one thing for me: less risk, more cash. Not because I know what comes next, but because I don't have to.

Follow for the next one.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Three months ago Honeywell Aerospace traded near $270. Today it's $169.

Same planes, same parts in ~90% of aircraft in service. Guidance cut on supply chains, not demand.

Fresh spin-offs get dumped mechanically. I own HONA.

Not advice. Follow for more special situations.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

$WOLF trades at ~$1.5B. The North Carolina fab alone was a ~$5B project.

Chapter 11 wiped most of the debt, so the shares own the assets again — and AI data centres need silicon carbide.

Risky? Yes. That's why I don't marry it. I own it.

Follow for more special situations.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

About $1 trillion in this market doesn't watch earnings. It watches volatility — and when it jumps, it sells.

Add 55% passive money, and one VIX spike triggers more selling. Aug '24: up to $170B of forced selling in days.

I'd rather step back early. Follow for the next light.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

The stock picker's era is over. Bag holding shouldn't be a religion.

$WOLF is a good stock — still I stepped out 3x this year: twice around jobs, once around CPI.

Back in 10% lower, then 27% & 5%. Same stock, same thesis but my entry is 38% better.

Follow to see when it flips.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Holding $IREN since April: −6%.
My trades: +45%.

Sold at +50%. It fell another 21% without me. Bought back lower.
Took a loss in July. Caught the next 31%.

"Let your winners run" doesn't work when regimes shift weekly.

Follow & I'll show you when I buy & when I step back.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

"Code 100" in Iran — their highest military alert, reportedly issued today. Headlines move oil, oil moves inflation and yields, and therefore equities.

That's a red light for new risk, not a reason to panic. Glad to still be at 43.7% cash.

Follow to see when I step back in.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

The Fed hiked for the first time in 3 years.

My view: at least 4 cuts in 2027.

I went up to 64% cash into CPI and the Fed. Now buying the dip — slowly, selectively.

Next test: CPI, Oct 14. Follow to see what I do.

[Raulin @raulinregime]

Here you'll get macro regime updates, stock picks, higher-risk trades in AI & crypto, and my real portfolio decisions.

Follow so you know when the light turns red.

Not financial advice.

#investing #macro #stockmarket #riskmanagement

[Raulin @raulinregime]

New here? Start with this. 🟢🔴

I'm Raulin, skydiver, entrepreneur and independent investor.

This account is about one question: when should you take risk, and when should you step back?

In skydiving, you never jump on red. In investing, most people do it every day.