Ray Dalio

Official account of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of #1 New York Times bestseller 'Principles,' professional mistake maker

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/WTy8hynCmb

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Smart people are the ones who ask the most thoughtful questions, as opposed to thinking they have all the answers. Great questions are a much better indicator of future success than great answers. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Own your life and take responsibility to make it great. When life doesn't give you what you want, don't be angry—learn how reality works and develop principles to get you where you want to be. Be radically open-minded, and recognize that if you want to be really successful, you have to work really hard.

Continue the graduation conversation with my AI Twin, Digital Ray in Beta: https://t.co/xMZkYAoepY

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Learning must come before deciding. As explained in Chapter One, your brain stores different types of learning in your subconscious, your rote memory bank, and your habits. But no matter how you acquire your knowledge or where you store it, what’s most important is that what you know paints a true and rich picture of the realities that will affect your decision. That’s why it always pays to be radically openminded and seek out believable others as you do your learning. Many people have emotional trouble doing this and block the learning that could help them make better decisions. Remind yourself that it’s never harmful to at least hear an opposing point of view.

Deciding is the process of choosing which knowledge should be drawn upon—both the facts of this particular “what is” and your broader understanding of the cause-effect machinery that underlies it—and then weighing them to determine a course of action, the “what to do about it.” This involves playing different scenarios through time to visualize how to get an outcome consistent with what you want. To do this well, you need to weigh first-order consequences against second- and third-order consequences, and base your decisions not just on near-term results but on results over time.

Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before you’ve asked questions and explored. To prevent myself from falling into this trap, I used to literally ask myself questions: Am I learning? Have I learned enough yet that it’s time for deciding? After a while, you will just naturally and open-mindedly gather all the relevant info, but in doing so you will have avoided the first pitfall of bad decision making, which is to subconsciously make the decision first and then cherry-pick the data that supports it.

But how does one learn well? #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Trainees must be open-minded; the process requires them to suspend their egos while they discover what they are doing well and what they are doing poorly and decide what to do about it. The trainer must be open-minded as well, and it's best if at least two believable trainers work with each trainee in order to triangulate their views about what the trainee is like. This training is an apprentice relationship; it occurs as the trainer and trainee share experiences, much like when a ski instructor skis alongside his student. The process promotes growth, development, and transparency around where people stand, why they stand where they stand, and what they can do about improving it. It hastens not just their own personal evolution but the evolution of the organization. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

The foundations of a successful country are simpler than most people think–productive citizens, a civil environment, and peace. If you understand that framework, you should be able to understand where we are in the big cycle of political and social order and disorder.

History shows us that when the causes people are willing to fight for are more important to them than the system, the system is in jeopardy.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

As a professional decision maker, I have spent my life studying how to make decisions effectively and have constantly looked for rules and systems that will improve my odds of being right and ending up with more of whatever it is that I am after.

One of the most important things I've come to understand is that most of the processes that go into everyday decision making are subconscious and more complex than is widely understood. For example, think about how you choose and maintain a safe distance behind the car in front of you when you are driving. Now describe the process in enough detail that someone who has never driven a car before can do it as well as you can, or so that it can be programmed into the computer that controls an autonomous car. I bet you can't.

Now think about the challenge of making all of your decisions well, in a systematic, repeatable way, and then being able to describe the processes so clearly and precisely that anyone else can make the same quality decisions under the same circumstances. That is what I aspire to do and have found to be invaluable, even when highly imperfect.

While there is no one best way to make decisions, there are some universal rules for good decision making. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Personality assessments are valuable tools for getting a quick picture of what people are like in terms of their abilities, preferences, and style. They are often more objective and reliable than interviews. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

If both parties are peers, it's appropriate to argue. But if one person is clearly more knowledgeable than the other, it is preferable for the less knowledgeable person to approach the more knowledgeable one as a student and for the more knowledgeable one to act as a teacher. Doing this well requires you to understand the concept of believability. I define believable people as those who have repeatedly and successfully accomplished the thing in question--who have a strong track record with at least three successes--and have great explanations of their approach when probed.

If you have a different view than someone who is believable on the topic at hand--or at least more believable than you are (if, say, you are in a discussion with your doctor about your health)--you should make it clear that you are asking questions because you are seeking to understand their perspective. Conversely, if you are clearly the more believable person, you might politely remind the other of that and suggest that they ask you questions.

All these strategies come together in two practices that, if you seek to become radically open-minded, you must master. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Some ways of thinking will serve you well for some purposes and serve you poorly for others. It is highly desirable to understand one's own and others' ways of thinking and their best applications. Some qualities are more suitable for some jobs. For example, you might not want to hire a highly introverted person as a salesman. That's not to say an introvert can't do that job; it's just that a gregarious person is likely to be more satisfied in the role and do a better job.

If you're not naturally good at one type of thinking, it doesn't mean you're precluded from paths that require it. It does, however, require that you either work with someone who has that required way of thinking (which works best) or learn to think differently (which is difficult or even impossible). #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

When debt levels reach extreme sizes relative to income, governments are left with a limited set of choices. They can cut spending, raise taxes, restructure the debt, or print money.

History shows that most systems end up relying heavily on the last option, but printing money doesn’t eliminate the problem–it just shifts how the debt cycle plays out.

Understanding this dynamic is key to understanding the economic environment we’re in.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

If you don't mind being wrong on the way to being right you'll learn a lot--and increase your effectiveness. But if you can't tolerate being wrong, you won't grow, you'll make yourself and everyone around you miserable, and your work environment will be marked by petty backbiting and malevolent barbs rather than by a healthy, honest search for truth. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

It is unacceptable to use your personal influence to help someone get a job because doing so undermines the meritocracy. It's not good for the job seeker, because it conveys they did not really earn it; it is not good for the person doing the hiring, because it undermines their authority; and it is not good for you because it demonstrates you will compromise merit for friends. It is an insidious form of corruption and it must not be tolerated. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

The answer doesn't have to be in your head; you can look outside yourself. If you're truly looking at things objectively, you must recognize that the probability of you always having the best answer is small and that, even if you have it, you can't be confident that you do before others test you. So it is invaluable to know what you don't know. Ask yourself: Am I seeing this just through my own eyes? If so, then you should know that you're terribly handicapped. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Knowing your nature is critically important to understanding what success is for you.

I can't tell you literally what is best for you, but I can tell you that success is not having a lot more money or status than you need. Having the time and freedom to do what you most want to do is far more important.

What is success for most people? It is a matter of having meaningful work and meaningful relationships. If you can make your work and your passion one and the same, and do it with people who you care about and care about you, you will have a happy, successful life.

Explore Principles for the Graduating Class of 2026 with my AI Twin, Digital Ray in Beta, here: https://t.co/qWS8kwzsPe

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Memorial Day leads me to 1) have a great time with family and friends, barbecuing, and listening to good music, 2) reflect on wars in general and those who lost their lives to protect us and our system, and 3) reflect on our country's principles.

I am deeply grateful to those who lost their lives or were harmed in the service of protecting our ability to live in our unique way that is a function of our unique principles. I try to remind myself what those principles are that we have fought and are fighting for—democracy, free speech, equal opportunity, being the land of the free and home of the brave, etc.

That leads me to wonder whether (and doubt that) most Americans could now agree on the principles that bind them and are worth fighting and dying for. Frankly, I am having a tough time reconciling what is now happening with what I grew up learning mattered most and what brought about true American exceptionalism—values that included equal opportunity, rule of law, freedom of speech, diversity of thinking, democracy, openness to good immigration, etc. I really think that we could use a clarification of—perhaps even a referendum about—what our principles are and then what KPIs and surveys can show how we're doing living up to them.

Memorial Day also leads me to reflect on the wars that have occurred repeatedly throughout history in all countries at a scale that, thankfully, few of us living have experienced. While, thanks to the heroic efforts of those who protect us, these major conflicts haven’t happened to most of us in our lifetimes, an objective observer would have to wonder whether such a conflict could happen to us or our children or our grandchildren, which reminds me that we need to focus on principles and ways of operating that will help us avoid such fights.

Then I reflect on all this reflecting I'm doing—and how it’s taking my attention as away from my Memorial Day barbecuing picnic with friends and family which reminds me that I need to prioritize better. Cheers!

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Remember that your goal is to put the right people in the right design. First understand the responsibilities of the role and the qualities needed to fulfill them, then ascertain whether an individual has them. When you're doing this well, there should almost be an audible "click" as the person you're hiring fits into his or her role. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Open-mindedness doesn't mean going along with what you don't believe in; it means considering the reasoning of others instead of stubbornly and illogically holding on to your own point of view. To be radically open-minded, you need to be so open to the possibility that you could be wrong that you encourage others to tell you so.
#principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Most training comes from doing and getting in sync about performance. Feedback should reflect what is succeeding and what is not in proportion to the actual situation, rather than in an attempt to balance compliments and criticisms. Remember that you are responsible for achieving your goals, and you want your machine to function as intended. For it to do so, the employees you supervise must meet expectations, and only you can help them understand whether they are stacking up. As their strengths and weaknesses become clearer, responsibilities can be more appropriately tailored to make the machine work better and to facilitate personal evolution. #principleoftheday

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

I practice Transcendental Meditation and believe that it has enhanced my open-mindedness, higher-level perspective, equanimity, and creativity. It helps slow things down so that I can act calmly even in the face of chaos, just like a ninja in a street fight. I'm not saying that you have to meditate in order to develop this perspective; I'm just passing along that it has helped me and many other people and I recommend that you seriously consider exploring it. #principleoftheday