Naval

Incompressible

[Naval @naval]

How to Get Rich (without getting lucky):

[Dev @zkDragon]

There are experts in open source trying to break cryptography with frontier models and their specific knowledge.

You just don't hear about this over the daily panicons.

[Brad Gerstner @altcap]

“5% one time is not enough, paves way for natl tax, the French are cheering CA on.” He destroyed France & now wants to destroy CA’s world class start up culture w the same Socialist high tax crap. Vote to save the American Dream. Reject France. NO on Prop 40. YES on 42. 🇺🇸🚀🤍

[The Drunk Republican @DrunkRepub]

Everything wrong with this country in a single post.

Elon makes things that benefit humanity while members of Congress do nothing but obstruct innovation and leech off the American people.

They make $174,000 per year yet more than half are millionaires. They can’t even pass voter ID, which has an 84% bipartisan approval rating, because they are so beholden to special interests.

If anyone is to be investigated it should be Senator Padilla and his colleagues who have enriched themselves on the backs of hardworking Americans, not the dude who employs thousands and saves lives with his inventions.

[Chip @FatherDigs]

@PhilWMagness @naval The paper Piketty & Zucman released before the Argentina runoff election in 2023 (that tried to knock out Milei) is a beautiful time capsule to complete economic ignorance. Dirty behavior. These men are activists, not academics. I can’t get past that track record.

[Byrne Hobart @ByrneHobart]

This is not a very good point, and it doesn't advance the discussion at all. There is an enormous burden of proof on you to argue that giving additional dollars to California is net beneficial, whereas the equity and bond markets' willingness to finance an expensive AI buildout provides ample evidence that people who know what they're talking about believe that dollars in the hands of these tech executives will produce something of value. Maybe you're smarter than all of them, but the way you advocate this wealth tax implies that you're going to great lengths to disguise this.

Further, your point about the cyclicality of this tax revenue accidentally raises another point that is very damaging to your campaign. California's tax system is already cyclical! They're already overreliant on a small number of taxpayers compared to other states (different ones each year, but for CA to work it really needs to be the place where successful tech executives want to realize liquidity). The top 1% paid half the state's income taxes in 2021—then 40% less a year later, because tech stocks went down.

A one-time wealth tax theoretically avoids this, because you just levy it when assets are expensive. But as far as I can tell, the plan is to spend the money in five years and hope somebody else has solve the state's budget problems by then. This is not what people conventionally refer to as a "plan." So I take Zucman at his word (iffy proposition!) when he says he wants it to be a regular thing.

If we're going to tax a form of wealth, I have an idea should really tickle you as an economist, or at least as a guy who probably hangs out with them from time to time: tax the land! It's a broader tax base, land values are far more stable than equity, and land, of course, cannot hop on its private jet and head to Miami. This also has a salutary effect on California politics, by sending every homeowner in the state a shocking bill from time to time. This will get voters asking themselves the same question you refuse to answer: what good is the state doing with all of that money?

I still find it puzzling that you're making such unsophisticated arguments, here. Surely, you can do better, and can explain what it is that the government California will do with another few billion dollars that it hasn't accomplished with the first $350bn or so.

As I've shown you a few times now, it's entirely possible to have a well-informed, reasonable argument about the proposed wealth tax. All you have to do is switch sides.

[Naval @naval]

@cdixon Welcome back, Chris 👌.

[Naval @naval]

@UnderdogAI Incredible name 👌.

[Naval @naval]

Turns out the “Open” part refers to *your* code.

[Amjad Masad @amasad]

What’s happening in the AI-powered reverse engineering and decompilation is absolutely insane. Pretty soon all software will be de facto open-source.

AI is coming for everything and everyone.

[Naval @naval]

Models are the last moat in software.

AI can train on essays and rewrite them. AI can decompile software and recode it. AI can ingest art and recreate it.

But AI itself doesn’t want to be “distilled.”

Expect more software to retreat to the server and resist “distillation.”

[Eric S. Raymond @esrtweet]

This is the doom I predicted a few days ago, coming for Photoshop. A clean-room open-source reimplementation.

No prizes for guessing that they decompiled Photoshop to source code, processed that to some kind of non-code specification language, then fed the spec to an LLM with an instruction to generate Rust.

Adobe just got nuked. And closed source is dead, dead, dead.

https://t.co/0sxtGNaPtq

[Naval @naval]

When you look back, you’ll wish you’d just done the long-term version of everything.

[Naval @naval]

@Ai009 @ScottAdamsSays That’s exactly who I was thinking of when this occurred to me!

[Naval @naval]

No one can fill the hole left by another human.

[Naval @naval]

@openxsocial I guess AGI is postponed. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Naval @naval]

Every functioning institution is merit-based, not participation-based.

[Naval @naval]

@JordanSchachtel “The UN! How many GPUs have they got?”

[Naval @naval]

@SCHIZO_FREQ Touché.

[Naval @naval]

People who want to appear moral are attracted to the left.

People who want to appear rational are attracted to the right.

Effective Altruism lets you appear rational and moral - the ultimate ego trip.

[Naval @naval]

@TimSweeneyEpic That’s a misinterpretation of what I’m saying. See the follow up tweet.

The primary tweet is referring to scenarios where the models inflict the harm themselves or make it too easy to do so.

Courts exist to adjudicate the details.

[Naval @naval]

For “dangerous” or weakly-guarded open source models, hold the hosts liable.

Of course the end user holds liability as well if they are jailbreaking models to do harmful things.

[Naval @naval]

The best way to pace the frontier is to hold the labs fully liable for the behavior of their models.

[Naval @naval]

@normonics Yes, check my follow-up tweet.