Ray Duch

Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford. Visitor @IAST1 Toulouse. Director @Talk2Machine

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

On last Term's 58 cases the twins recovered 87.5% of individual votes — but those decisions may be in the model's training data, so we don't count it. Only undecided cases count. Next filings 11 Oct; hands-on session at #LLMSS2026, Hong Kong, 13 Oct. With @GuentherLaurenz.

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

The Supreme Court opens its October sitting today. Before it did, we put nine digital twins of the Justices — built only from their own opinions — on the record for the first four cases, filed before argument. The essay: https://t.co/RjWOdVZXGr

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

Twins and the FantasySCOTUS crowd agree on three of the four. The one to watch is Suncor v. Boulder County (climate suits in state court): crowd Reverse 5–3, twins Affirm 5–3, Alito recused. Every vote, hashed and released Sunday: https://t.co/q3GAup9WPw

[Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) @BrendanNyhan]

Now online: AI, Politics, and Political Science edited by @persily and @j_a_tucker with many chapters by great folks, including ours on the effects of AI on the online info ecosystem

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

Full essay: https://t.co/m2SFujHyin Paper (Bowles, Duch & Sorescu): https://t.co/PVn1edwiIx

And if you'd rather build it than read about it: three code-along workshops in Hong Kong on 13 Oct, before LLMSS 2026. Early registration closes 15 Sept. https://t.co/ifKF4ZUDM6

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

We built digital twins of 81 financial influencers and interviewed them every trading day for three months — a view on every large-cap stock, every day, timestamped before the market moved. The most interesting thing we measured was the silence. 🧵

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

Finance isn't where this started. The same instrument, pointed at voters, is our AI polling work with @robertocerina — 2024 state-level estimates as accurate as the best aggregators. Selective disclosure is everywhere. Elections and finance are just two examples.

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

Submissions to LLMSS Hong Kong 2026 now close August 7 — one extra week to get your paper or abstract in. In the video I talk about what makes this conference different: AI as synthetic respondents, digital twins, hands-on workshops, and a genuinely global, open call. Submit today 👇
https://t.co/QZg5QJF1O2
#LLMSS2026 #CallForPapers #AI #ComputationalSocialScience #HongKong

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

⏰ Deadline extended to 31 July — LLMSS 2026: Large Language Models & the Social Sciences, 14–16 Oct, City University of Hong Kong.
Keynotes from Harvard, Oxford, HKU & CityU + applied workshops on 13 Oct (AIPOP, Digital Twins, the Silicon Jury).
Submit: https://t.co/S7JXOUoSjG

[Ray Duch @RayDuch]

Reminder! #LLMSS Hong Kong Oct 14-16 is an open conference - welcoming researchers worldwide — regardless of institution, nationality, or geography. Science advances through exchange! Hosted by Peking University, CityU, and T2M-Oxford. Submit by June 1: https://t.co/iktZUMaFGW

[Roberto Cerina @RobertoCerina]

‼️📢 NEW PUBLICATION ALERT !

My paper Artificially Intelligent Opinion Polling, co-authored with @RayDuch is out at @RSocPublishing RSOS. Using a large corpus of tweets from the 2020 US election, we show that LLMs can...

https://t.co/Wqcx0jxArM

[Felipe Torres-Raposo @ftraposo]

We’re excited to invite researchers, postdocs, PhD students, and professors to the Political Economy and Political Science Early Career Workshop at LSE, taking place this Friday afternoon.
Full details can be found in the programme below. We would be delighted to see you there!

[PSRM Journal @PSRMJournal]

🪙Do politicians signal partisan conflict only through what they say?

➡️ Using Danish parliamentary debates, @MathiasRask95 & @fghjorth show that changes in vocal pitch signal partisan polarization, revealing the strategic use of nonverbal cues https://t.co/TlaPp7OLGT #FirstView