Ray Fleming

Physicist and author retired in the Philippines

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@NewLeibniz @WKCosmo Kinney is full of sh*t. To begin with Einstein's idea that space has dimensions and clocks by itself is nonphysical nonsense, as there is no evidence for it. Without dimensions space cannot expand, contract, or curve. Inflation theory is fiction not physics.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

Alexander Unzicker shows how the Hubble cosmological redshift is a consequence of general relativity interactions between light and matter. It has nothing to do with expansion. I did a video about this last year. https://t.co/Ith5UI7JzW

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@POTUS Gaza, a Palestinian statelet, is a terrorist state filled with people who support terrorism and genocide. It is one definition of insanity to think you can repeat an experiment and get a different result.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@ianbremmer I could see China's share of US imports dipping to around 5% within the next 5 years as the US continues to derisk.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@ianbremmer The effects of near-shoring are accelerating and China's exports to the US could fall by another $100 billion in 2024 giving China around a 10.5% share of US imports down from the peak of 21.6% in 2017. By 2025 China's share should dip below 10%.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@mrbcyber @YahooFinance Chinese real estate fell 16% and makes up 27% of GDP as commonly reported, so real estate is responsible for a ~4% drop in GDP. Exports are another ~1%. There is no significant investment increase elsewhere. Then add the Yuan falling 4% for a total 9% GDP drop in USD terms.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@fuxianyi China's local and central governments combined to sell around 1.5 trillion Yuan in bonds in January and will need to sell 1.5 to 3 trillion a month to refinance old debt and fund government. That does not leave much money for buying stocks.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@Byron_Wan Something has to break within the next 5 years.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@Byron_Wan Laoman shows in this graph that China's internal debt grew by 34T Yuan ($4.7T USD) to 343T($48T) in 2023. At the 10.6% per year rate it will be 380T($53T) in 2024, 420T($58.5T) in 2025, and 700T($97.5T) in 2030, over $100T USD with foreign debt at current the exchange rate.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@Jkylebass @laomanpindao put out a video on China's debt problem in Chinese, but the graphs are still interesting. https://t.co/EsqBO8ri0z

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@IndoPac_Info 150m excess homes in China is nonsense as an official report stated China has almost 600 million residential buildings including large apartment buildings. Individual family units are estimated to be over 1.5 billion. So there are probably 1 billion or more too many.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@Jkylebass Chinese economist Laoman, from 2008, calculated using Chinese data that China's GDP is only $13 trillion USD and fell around 9% in USD terms in 2023. At that GDP China's debt to GDP ratio is closer to 400% than 300%. And with more trustworthy data it is likely much worse.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@igorsushko Hitting Volgograd refinery could take another 250,000 barrels per day off-line after 200,000+ at Tuapse. In the next couple months Ukraine could take another 1.5 million barrels a day of Russian refining capacity off-line and hurt Russian logistics and exports.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@fuxianyi If India follows the lower UN projections as is typical, its workforce will peak in around 20 years so India has a short window of opportunity for GDP growth. But women's workforce participation rate is low, so its workforce won't pass China's peak of around 800 million.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

The Philippines needs to invest in some drones like this for when the time comes. Actually their banca boats might work in a surprise attack.

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

Video of the day... Ukrainian drones sink a Russian military vessel worth USD 60 mln

The missile corvette Ivanovets was hit by several naval drones.

After the last one, she rolled over and quickly sank to the bottom of sea just as the Titanic did (final 3 seconds of the video)

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@RonFilipkowski Tom Cotton asked the wrong question. Companies in The Communist China are required to have a CCP representative. Since TikTok has a Chinese parent company they probably have one or more high level executives who are communist party members. Cotton should have asked who it is.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

The pro-terrorist antisemitic wing of the US congress is smaller than I imagined. Now if we can shrink the pro-Russia fascist wing of congress.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

#Breaking: Congress Votes on Banning Hamas in the US: Cori Bush and Rashida Tlaib opposed banning Hamas and other perpetrators of the October 7th Massacre from entering the United States, while Rep. @DeliaRamirezIL abstained from voting.

The remaining members of the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted yes, with a tally of 422-2-1.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

China's excess manufacturing capacity will lead to worldwide deflation unless countries implement appropriate tariffs on all goods made in The Communist China.

[Financial Times @FT]

China’s overcapacity a challenge that is ‘here to stay’, says US chamber https://t.co/XCbKrHtt51

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@visegrad24 In the 1980s a friend of mine was from Imperial Beach, California and there was a steady stream of migrants simply walking up the beach after swimming around the fence. Drugs were run by boat. Immigration on the US southern border is nothing new.

[Ray Fleming @rayrfleming]

@globaltimesnews Wang Yi is lying. Not only is The Communist China threatening to attack the country of Taiwan they are trying to forcibly annex islands belonging to Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia while also forcibly annexing parts of India, Bhutan, and Nepal.