$HOOD - 110c 7/10 position update
I still have runners (30% of original position which is now free optionality after locking profits) - these are 66 delta and have decent convexity if there's more upside this week.
I rolled small amount of profits into 120c 7/17 at 2.03 and again at 2.35 - these are 30 delta and are looking for a move through 120 into next week.
I explain trades like this LIVE in my channel.
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FOMC minutes were hawkish on the margin: no cut signal, easing bias removed, and some members even saw a case for hiking.
But the 10Y auction an hour earlier was important context: 4.58% cleared with a 2.59 BTC, strong indirect demand and low dealer take.
So the message is not “panic.” It’s: Fed not dovish, cuts not imminent, but duration demand is still there for now.
That snake is back in the Trump fold.
President Trump’s former personal attorney Michael Cohen on Monday said he and the president have reconciled after he turned on his former boss.
He says their split is water under the bridge and that they are back to being buddy, buddy.
That Trump Kool-aid is a helluva drug.
$SPX - setup for an upside squeeze.
The vanna setup today is even cleaner because IV did not expand at the open.
It compressed overnight from roughly 19% to 15% despite the Iran headline.
That is the tell.
If the market genuinely believed the headline was turning into a sustained risk-off event, IV should have held bid into cash open. Instead, the options market started removing event premium before equities had even fully repaired.
That matters because lower IV mechanically reduces downside put deltas.
As vol compresses:
Put protection loses sensitivity
Dealer short hedges can be reduced
That hedge unwind can become buying
Buying pushes spot higher
Higher spot can pressure vol even lower
That is the vanna feedback loop.
So the upside setup here is not just “the dip got bought”.
The setup is:
IV already rejected the panic, spot reclaimed the key zone, and further vol compression can now create additional mechanical upside pressure.
That is why I’m watching whether $SPX can hold above the reclaimed 7,450-7,495 area.
If it does, and IV keeps bleeding lower, the market can move from recovery mode into momentum mode with a strong vanna accelerant.
The key signal today is not the news.
It was the options market saying the news was not worth paying up for.
Commentary like this is available LIVE every day in my channel.
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$NVDA 230c 8/14 added last week at 2.08.
Added again today at 1.50
But MikshuAlpha is not a signal room.
I explain the setup, the data, the vol backdrop, the risk, and the reasoning behind the trade in real time.
That is where the edge is.
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World Liberty Financial has been the biggest crypto cash cow for the Trumps.
It follows a familiar “pump-and-dump” pattern that delivered $1.1 billion for the family.
My @Morning_Joe Chart
Dems really need to begin more forcefully presenting a narrative that Trump is erratic and unstable and no longer able to carry out the duties of the presidency and therefore must be removed from office.
Look at him! Listen to him! To do anything but broach his unfitness and removal is to normalize him. And to normalize him is to normalize psychopathy, FFS!
Ratchet up the discussion, Dems! Get on TV with it. It's true, it's accurate, and it shows mettle.
Plus, it'll also drive him crazy and will create political momentum.