RDV Analytics

We provide top-class analysis on equities, fixed income and commodities from Russia, CIS & EM.

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Anthropic’s IPO (ANT) is set to offer 825M shares, about 6.3% of shares outstanding after the deal. Orders exceed supply several times over, Bloomberg reports. The IPO price could top $78, according to the FT.

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Since 2013, $1 has grown to $6.55 in the S&P 500 (SPXTR) and $1.48 in Russia’s MOEX index (MCFTR/USDRUB), with dividends reinvested. The gap is now 4.42x.

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Strive holds 43,000 BTC and trades at about 0.96x the value of its Bitcoin. It bought 10,227 BTC in two weeks versus Strategy’s 267. The model depends on continued funding: its preferred stock costs 16% a year, so returns hinge on BTC rising faster. #Bitcoin #CryptoStocks

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Since 2013, $1 invested in the S&P 500 Total Return Index grew to $6.69, versus $1.52 in Russia’s dollar-based total return index - a 4.4x wealth gap. Russia narrowed it as stocks rose 7.3% and the ruble strengthened. Long-term CAGR remains 15% vs 3%. #SP500 #Investing

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Russia’s budget gap is now driven by spending growth. Urals trades 98% above the budget base, while 2026 spending rose 10.1% and the deficit 94% to RUB7.35tn. Even 10% extra oil revenue would cover only one-tenth of the gap, leaving more taxes or debt. #Russia #Oil

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Rate cuts could ease Russia’s corporate debt stress while extending inflation. The policy rate is 14%, overdue corporate debt has reached RUB3.24tn (+14.4% YoY), and the deficit forecast rose to 3.2% of GDP. Lower rates may delay downturn, not remove the risk. #Russia #Inflation

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Token buybacks do not guarantee lower supply. Tokenomist says only 2 of 11 tokens with buyback or burn programs will shrink supply over the next year. The rest retain repurchased tokens or issue more through unlocks. Track net supply, not buybacks. #Crypto #Tokenomics

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Russia and China face mirrored investment problems. China’s low rates have failed to revive domestic demand, while Russia’s 14% policy rate makes new projects too expensive. Investment is falling in both, raising risks to growth and corporate profits. #China #Russia

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Strikes on data centers, warehouses and ports could cost Yandex 3.2% of H1 group EBITDA, NCSP 5.5% and Ozon 2.46% of its commerce-segment EBITDA, according to preliminary RDV estimates. Actual losses depend on downtime and recovery costs. #Russia #Stocks

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Aerodrome and Velodrome merge on Oct. 21, expanding across 7 chains. Aerodrome already leads Uniswap on Base, but Uniswap controls 57-75% of volume on Ethereum, Arbitrum and Optimism. Every 1% captured there could lift token-locker revenue by ~3%. #DeFi #DEX

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

US banks are beating profit estimates, but their stocks keep falling. Goldman’s equity trading revenue jumped 72%, yet investment banking revenue fell 5% QoQ as global M&A dropped 41%. Investors doubt trading gains can offset weaker deal fees. #BankStocks #WallStreet

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, yet cut estimates for 47% of countries. Just 32 economies now generate 95% of global GDP growth, down from 54 in April. AI investment is lifting a narrower group, while inflation limits rate cuts. #IMF #GlobalEconomy #AI

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Attacks on Russian refineries, ports, warehouses and data centers add a new risk premium to stocks. 12-month returns diverged: NMTP -19.7%, OZON recovered after a 23.3% drop, while FESCO +28.5% and Gazprom Neft +20.4%. Downtime and repair costs now matter. #Russia #Stocks

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Since 2013, $1 invested in the S&P 500 Total Return Index grew to $6.73, versus $1.34 in Russia’s dollar-denominated total return index. SPXTR gained 573% vs MCFTR 34%, leaving the US passive investor about 5x wealthier. #SP500 #Investing #Markets

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

AI chip suppliers are winning orders as customers take on more debt. SpaceX may raise $40B for Nvidia accelerators, while Broadcom is arranging $30B-$50B+ tied to OpenAI chip supply. Rising SpaceX CDS spreads show credit markets are already pricing the risk. #AI #Chips #Credit

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Price-to-fees multiples only work within the same category. Median FDV/annualized fees is 7.7x for lending protocols vs 4,872x for blockchains. Even peers are comparable only if they retain a similar share of fees. Gross fees are not protocol revenue. #Crypto #DeFi #Tokenomics

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Weak US jobs data cut October Fed hike odds to ~18%, but the 10Y Treasury yield remains near5.27%. Payrolls rose just 29K, while July and August were revised down by 60K. A Fed pause may lower short yields, but fiscal and inflation risks keep long rates high. #Fed #TreasuryYields

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Rising Japanese yields add pressure to US Treasuries. Japan’s 10Y hit 3.11%, near a 30-year high, as the US 10Y reached 5.34%. Japan’s Treasury holdings fell from $1.24T in February to $1.10T in July. Repatriation could keep US long-term yields elevated. #markets

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Pendle buys back 10x more tokens than it issues, but holder payouts equal only ~1.2% of market cap annually: $5M vs a $404M valuation. The headline is driven by a 78% drop in issuance. Tokens are redistributed to stakers, not burned, so total supply does not shrink. #crypto

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Nvidia is outperforming semis after a record buyback expansion. It added $150B, bringing available authorization to $235B through FY2028. On Sept. 28, NVDA rose 1.71% as SOX fell 1.61%. The spread shows a key edge: funding AI capex and buybacks from its own cash flow. #AI