RDV Analytics

We provide top-class analysis on equities, fixed income and commodities from Russia, CIS & EM.

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Amid sanctions, rising inequality, and "locked capital," Russia’s luxury market is booming. #VIP_talk

💬 Who’s driving demand for premium goods?
💬 How do fine dining & exclusivity intersect?
💬 Why is meat becoming a new currency of taste, status, and investment?
🎥 Watch the discussion: https://t.co/QRKqpQXm5V

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Long-term corporate bonds in Russia could yield up to 50% in 12 months if the key rate drops to 10% by mid-2026.
Example: Samolet BO-P18 — 27.5% yield at issue.
If spreads normalize, investor return may hit 50%.
Repricing could be rapid. #bonds #Russia #markets

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Israel–Iran conflict = risk + speculation. Markets react to noise, not facts. Oil/LNG price in the risk.
Trump trades the chaos?
Netanyahu benefits from war?
Hormuz won't close — but attacks = higher shipping costs = price jump.
#Geopolitics #Oil #Analysis

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Urals Oil in Rubles and Lukoil Share Price (LKOH).

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Urals Oil in Rubles: 4,200 RUB / barrel. At the lows of late 2022 - early 2023

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Overhang risk from renewed DR conversions: some shares (e.g. LKOH, GMKN) may hit the market as DRs convert from June 9. “Relocated” names like T & YDEX are safe. Watch for selling pressure on blue chips.
#Russia #stocks #RDV #analytics
🔗 https://t.co/XdNVqBmpjG

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

🇷🇺 The Russian market faces a tense but intriguing setup:
🔻 The CBR began monetary easing for the first time in ~2 years, but policy remains ultra-tight (20% vs ~4% CPI), risking an economic cooldown.
🔻 Oil in RUB is near 2023 lows, hitting exporters.
🔻 Peace odds falling (Polymarket gives 25% for RU-UA ceasefire by end-2025).
🔻 Technicals: Lukoil dividends (June 18), ADR conversion (June 9–17), futures expiry (June 19) add volatility.
🎯 Tactical focus: Avoid cyclicals & exporters. Bet on easing expectations, not just rate cuts.

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Central Bank Policy Rates (as of 06.06.2025).
Turkey 46.00%
Argentina 29.00%
Russia 20.00%
Brazil 14.75%
Colombia 9.25%
Mexico 8.50%
South Africa 7.25%
India 6.50%
Philippines 6.50%
Poland 5.75%
Saudi Arabia 5.00%
USA 4.38%
United Kingdom 4.25%
Eurozone 2.00%
Japan 0.50%

#InterestRates #RealInterestRate #Inflation #GlobalEconomy #CentralBanks #Investing

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

The Central Bank barely budged under pressure from politicians & business.

✍️ Key decision: rate cut to 20%
✍️ Strong message: tight monetary policy to last for a prolonged period
👉 49 days until next meeting — risk of falling behind the curve. #analytics

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

BANK OF RUSSIA RATE: 20% (CONSENSUS 21%, PRIOR 21%)

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Russia may cut rates for the 1st time since 2022 — Bloomberg
Inflation slows to 10.3%, GDP growth drops to 1.7%, ruble strengthens.
Experts split: most expect 1–2pp cut, one sees no change (21%).
Decision expected today.
Full story: https://t.co/QfleHgIDS3 #economy #Russia

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Mary Meeker drops the AI report:
🔥 ChatGPT = 365B searches/year
🔥 Llama > all in downloads
🔥 Model training cost x2400
🔥 Inference cost down 99.7%
🔥 China AI = US, with less $$
🔥 Tesla > 1B miles in FSD
👉 https://t.co/sseudAJN20
#AIinfrastructure #MaryMeeker

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

BTC futures launched on Moscow Exchange — a key step for crypto institutionalization in Russia.
₽423M turnover & 8.6K trades on day 1.
Only for qualified investors, no crypto delivery.
Backed by BlackRock’s BTC ETF with 660K+ BTC and $70B+ assets. #cryptomania

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Magnit (MGNT) could benefit from monetary easing.
🎯 Target price: RUB 7,436
📈 EPS to rise to 1,047 by 2026
📊 P/E to expand from 5.3x → 9.8x as rates drop & dividends return

#stocks #MGNT #macro

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Cost pressure from production has hit a low since mid-2022 — PMI survey. Industrial prices are rising at their slowest pace since fall 2022, when the key rate was just 7.5%. #facts

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Ahead of the June 6 Central Bank meeting, pressure mounts from govt, banks & businesses to cut the key rate from 21%. They cite slowing inflation & economic risks, but the Bank of Russia stays cautious due to inflation expectations. #state_affairs

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Make-or-break week for the markets.
Two key events:
Istanbul talks — no breakthrough expected, but even symbolic gestures could be seen as neutral-positive.

Central Bank meeting — inflation near target, political pressure rising, market split 50/50 on a rate cut.

👉 A soft outcome on both fronts = support for local demand-driven assets.

Full scenarios in RDV PREMIUM 361°
🔗 https://t.co/DqLKZ4RLvt

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

RZD freight loading in May 2025 dropped 9.4% vs May 2024.

Key reasons:
🚧 Construction cargo down 19.4%
🛢 Oil cargo down 8.9% (refinery maintenance)
🏭 Metallurgy: ferrous metals -29.1%, scrap metal -40% (lower domestic demand)
Growth:
⚓️ Shipments to Far East ports +1.3%, coal +2.7%
YTD (Jan-May): -7.3% vs 2024
More: https://t.co/i5MN24PMgf

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Top 20 Cities (Urban Districts) in Eastern Europe and the CIS by Per Capita Budget Spending in 2025 (in USD).

Moscow — 4742
Warsaw — 4235
Prague — 4088
Wrocław — 3884
Poznań — 3750
Kraków — 3280
Tallinn — 3045
St. Petersburg — 2999
Riga — 2893
Łódź — 2561
Surgut — 2538
Almaty — 2639
Minsk — 2637
Sevastopol — 2691
Brno — 2750
Shymkent — 2108
Bratislava — 2084
Sochi — 1961
Bucharest — 1953
Nizhnevartovsk — 1905

[RDV Analytics @rdv_analytics]

Nominal housing prices continue to rise — despite sky-high rates and rollback of subsidized mortgage programs.
Source: Central Bank (https://t.co/KTVK3wHnDZ) #figures

👉 Previously: Russian investors now have an alternative to bonds & FX — the first listed rental property ETF in Russia: https://t.co/LKZ0IsE3tZ