Read Harvey

Technical Analyst | Islanders Fan | Golfer | @UofSC Alum
“When life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door”

[Eric Hubbs @BarstoolHubbs]

He got my attention with the crow.

I stopped everything I was doing with the Canada goose.

My jaw hit the floor with the red tail hawk.

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

Inflation isn't real if you close your eyes!

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

Warsh has signaled he wants to change the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The Fed has used Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, as its benchmark since 2000. Warsh favors Trimmed Mean PCE, which removes the most extreme price movements each month instead of excluding whole categories.

The practical difference: Trimmed Mean PCE currently reads 2.36%, well below the 3.20% reading on Core PCE. Depending on which measure the Fed follows, the case for rate cuts looks very different.

This is not a minor procedural change. The metric the Fed uses to gauge inflation directly determines when it judges the economy to be at target.

If Warsh moves the committee toward Trimmed Mean PCE, he is mathematically moving the Fed closer to a declared victory on inflation, which creates runway for rate cuts even as headline readings stay elevated.

You’d think with 400+ Ph.D. economists and 500+ researchers on the payroll, the Fed would run the most sophisticated macro forecasting operation on the planet, leaving Bloomberg and every major hedge fund in the dust. Not even close. When the data doesn’t cooperate, just change the data.

Same thing I saw in the Army when time or weather worked against higher leadership, and we would quietly move the goalposts rather than admit the standard couldn’t be met. Can you tell why I didn’t stick around for the full 20 years?

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

@BenKizemchuk It makes too much sense so it’s not going to happen unfortunately

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

@hbgolfusa Plainfield represent!

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

The markets are all making all time highs after a historic 14 day turnaround off the low. Semis are up 25% Transports are up 20%. Software is coming alive again and looks to have found a floor.

And Bitcoin is still trading at $74k..? 🤣

What even is the bull case at this point?

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

@JC_ParetsX Perhaps they can allocate large chunks to Pension Funds as well… It would compliment the exposure to Private Credit nicely!

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

@alpha_pls The S&P did not open above its 50 day today, so technically it did trade through it intraday. The only instance I could find of price opening ABOVE both following a close beneath both averages on the previous day was Dec 3 2018

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

Energy this, rates that…

I’m bullish on beer!

#SAM breakout through $255 incoming. Huge runway to the upside.

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

https://t.co/LpuMVknQZn

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

#NEE may be one of the prettiest setups out there. Bull Flag + Positive Momentum Inflection = Next leg higher incoming

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

As the market tries to firm up this week... Quite the Bullish divergence in the Smart Money Index. Something or nothing?

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

NOT the base you want to see...

If the VIX were a stock, would you not be a buyer?

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

RIP Scott Adams

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

@MB19701 Can I ask why they qualify to be included in PINK in the first place? PCT has no association with Health Care as far as I understand

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

Has there ever been a time when crypto folks were this divided on what happens next? One half thinks we’re going to 75k while the other is screaming that we’re obviously about to rip to 150k

Bananas.

Good for business though.

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

Anyone out there making note of rolling momentum in the Discretionary / Staples ratio? Something or nothing?

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

@dvntroy Source?

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

That praise continues!

[Crypto n Stocks News @MemeCoinsNewz]

🇺🇸 Read Harvey (Wolfe Research) praises Bitcoin’s resilience at $79K. Analysts shape sentiment! #BTC #CryptoAnalyst

[Read Harvey @readcharts_]

Lots of thematic shifts playing out of late.

Commodities > Equities might be my favorite. This looks like a bottom.