@alexbward I sincerely respect the effort put in by OVP, but drifting interpretations are concerning. Until MOU release, study closely Iranian framing. And Israeli.
@bennyjohnson OVP putting in the work. As someone who also worked in support of a peace process, I can confirm it is forever thankless, and always against long odds. As Lincoln said at Cooper Union, “let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it.”
@alexbward Alex, I formerly backstopped U.S.-Taliban peace talks in INR. As you subtly imply, it won’t fly. We learned all the hard lessons, and then some. Same regional players too.
Stable peace agreements are (1) methodically negotiated in a clear neutral format, with (2) fully authorized representation of pertinent parties, and (3) signed in person by said parties.
As we reported Thursday, the potential US-Iran truce mentions Lebanon in vague terms and in the context of regional peace.
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah strikes into Israel & the IDF response in Beirut may be testing the terms of that drafted truce. Watch this space.....
“I do my own duty: the other things do not distract me. They are either inanimate or irrational, or have lost the road and are ignorant of the true way.”
U.S.–Iran Tensions Rise as Conflicting Signals Emerge Over Potential Deal
While Trump’s team reportedly prepared for a possible Geneva signing ceremony, Tehran insists no agreement has been reached, underscoring a widening gap in public messaging between both sides.
#WashingtonEye
“Look back over the past—all those many changes of dynasties. And you can foresee the future too: it will be completely alike, incapable of deviating from the rhythm of the present. So for the study of human life forty years are as good as ten thousand: what more will you see?”
The abundance illusion.
Carter admitted the scarcity. It was honest. It was politically fatal.
Every Administration since drew the obvious lesson: never admit to scarcity. Talk the price down. Release the reserves. Call it abundance and hope the problem resolves itself. It has worked for the past 50 years.
839 institutional investors. Record two-thirds expect oil prices to fall further. Even retail: oil ETF shorts exceed longs for the first time ever.
The template is working.
It has always worked. Until the buffer runs out.
SPR 415→349mb. Global stocks drawing 6mb/d.
That’s not supply responding to price. That’s inventory responding to price. And inventory, unlike production, has a floor.
You cannot destock your way to energy security.
See my latest note https://t.co/ktBpOCEf1U
Meanwhile in South Korea, union negotiations at Samsung remain broken down as of mid-day 15 May local. Union members still plan to strike 21 May after deeming Samsung's response to their 10:00am deadline insufficient. This risks U.S. semiconductor RAM supply chains, as I warned over two weeks ago 26 April to select readers in a Footnoted Flash¹.
From data, to detente...and a little deterrence. Ahead of the Trump-Xi China meeting, I argue for peace to ensure stability of the U.S.-Taiwan semiconductor trade.
📣 Today @CommerceGov and @MOTIRKoreaEng signed an MOU establishing the Korea-U.S. Shipbuilding Partnership Initiative and Center to strengthen bilateral cooperation in commercial shipbuilding, workforce development, industrial modernization, and maritime manufacturing investment. 🚢⚓️
Learn more: https://t.co/3xMfbI4aV3