Instant Reaction: Mortgage Rates, September 16, 2026
"Average mortgage rates rose from 6% in late February to 7% this week, ahead of the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years today."
We just got the highest mortgage rate reading of 2026
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.85%
Same day last year: 6.78%
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10-year Treasury yield: 4.70%
Spread: 215 bps
All of these scenarios are unlikely:
- Home prices down 16%
- Incomes up 19%
- Mortgage rates 160 bps lower
But this could work:
- Home prices stay mostly flat
- Incomes rise 3-5% annually
- Mortgage rates fall 0.5% - 1%
We're getting closer...it's just a boring slog.
Median house prices single-family homes in the US, per NAR:
In the U.S. Northeast: $564,800
In the Midwest: $346,600
In the South: $377,700
In the West: $633,600
Pending home sales fell in June on both a monthly and annual basis, driven by a 10-month high in mortgage rates and record-high home prices. Contracts sank 5.4% compared with May and fell 0.3% YoY. The MoM pullback was nationwide, while YoY sales fell only in the South and West.
Existing-home sales decreased by 2.4% in June, while the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved slightly higher to 6.49%. Learn more: https://t.co/zeDXgcl2nW