Hectaaaaaa

Father, Husband, Marketing/Finance Guru, Jeeper O|||||O, WHO-DEY 🐅🏈 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 🇦🇷⚽️ La Selección #10
Miami 🏝

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@DeItaone I’m sure Trumps claims that China rigged the 2020 elections had nothing to do with this… come on Walter.

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@AjMachalaa Why wouldn’t an account from Africa say this?…

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@ZeeContrarian1 So you’re selling 10 naked calls at the open assuming that you’re going to lose?

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

Chip shorts are getting squeezed today. Wait for them to capitulate and I’ll see you at MU $750 in a jiffy. Rotation into mag 7 Goldilocks environment takes time.

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@KobeissiLetter https://t.co/gyIxh14Hxb

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

Chip shorts are getting squeezed today. Wait for them to capitulate and I’ll see you at MU $750 in a jiffy. Rotation into mag 7 Goldilocks environment takes time.

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@AnabellaMarvy Hey Jude, you let England down.

You talked 💩 to Messi & now your country frowns ☹️

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@GorrasCavs There’s one of the reasons we won! That pace and toughness is unmatched 🇦🇷

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@Mr_Derivatives Told you a few weeks ago where we’re going 😛

https://t.co/Z441QVWeBA

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@Mr_Derivatives Like I wrote on your other post, see you at $750 before any meaningful upside. Pin it and buy me a coffee when it plays out ☕️

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@SpeedUpdates1 Speed is so Cottonelle soft… he’s so far up CR7’s 💩 yeah he’s gonna die on the hill of being an Argentina and Messi hater. 0 class

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@FOXSports Of course he’s gonna go after one of the youngest and smallest players on our club. Complete low class 🐈

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@AmazingFletch @HormuzLetter Joe Biden pulling out for God knows what reason is not losing to the Taliban.

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

Predictions for the semifinal

🇫🇷 France 2
🇪🇸 Spain 2 (W in penalties)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1
🇦🇷 Argentina 2

Thoughts?

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@TheCineprism How much are all of these Indian accounts being paid to spew the BS propaganda? Everyone and their mama knows this is going to be an absolute flop and a thorn in an otherwise flawless career for Christopher Nolan.

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

Do you seriously believe the propaganda? It’s laughable that people think the US couldn’t control the strait if we really wanted to. There are many things that us peons will never know about this war. The back door politics give or take. But I know one thing, there are only two countries worldwide that can challenge the US military. And one of them isn’t Iran.

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@TiffanyFong The academy, and therefore the critics generally have one thing in common. Of course they’re gonna rate this high. Get ready for a major flop in perspective of Nolan‘s past work.

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

This was just simple pattern recognition on high energy IPO’s paired with simple valuation analysis. Yes there’s always a bit of luck but damn it feels good to have been pretty close to perfect on the analysis. Now we wait and stay patient. I’d love to start picking up shares around 1 trillion market cap.

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

Look, the SpaceX IPO chatter on here is mostly one note right now: “$135 is crazy expensive, valuation’s insane, stay away.”

I get the caution… $1.8 trillion market cap on $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue is a wild 94-100x sales multiple. That’s higher than Palantir’s ~78x or Nvidia’s ~23x. Morningstar straight-up called it significantly overvalued and pegged fair value closer to half that.

But here’s the angle nobody’s really hammering: what if all that “don’t buy” noise is doing exactly what big money wants?

The numbers back up why a dip is baked in. SpaceX priced at $135/share to raise ~$75B. The biggest IPO ever. Revenue’s real (Starlink driving most of it), but they’re still losing billions on Starship and new bets.

Historical playbook for hot IPOs?

First-day pop from hype, then reality hits. Looking at 30 big tech IPOs from Facebook onward showed average max drawdown of ~55% in the first year from the opening high. Only about 43% were positive at 6 or 12 months.

Facebook dropped hard after its 2012 debut before ripping higher years later. Uber lost over 50% in its first year. Same pattern in a lot of 2021 names - hype fades, early sellers unload, price resets.

SpaceX made the lockup smarter than the old 180-day cliff. It’s tiered: chunks release after 70, 90, 105 days, then more tied to earnings, full unwind by 180 days. Elon and some big holders locked longer (around a year).

Smart move to avoid a total flood, but it still means steady selling pressure from early investors and employees who want liquidity. That’s textbook setup for volatility. Underwriters and analysts know this - they’ve seen it a thousand times.

Studies on IPOs going back decades show average first-day gains, but long-term returns often lag the market once the initial excitement cools and supply hits.

Now the psychology part. Research on investor behavior in IPOs finds retail sentiment fuels those big first-day pops… but it’s also tied to weaker long-term performance. Institutions tend to be more measured. They get better allocations upfront and are often the ones stepping in on the dips when retail gets scared off.

We’ve seen this movie before. Heavy “overvalued, too risky” talk right before or during big launches isn’t always pure analysis. It sets expectations low, shakes out weak hands, and lets bigger players accumulate cheaper once the dust settles. Happens in growth names, meme cycles, you name it.
SpaceX has massive demand (oversubscribed, retail tranche included), yet the caution narrative is loud. Coincidence? Maybe. But it lines up with keeping the marginal buyer on the institutional side for the reset.

Yeah, this thing’s expensive at these levels and a decent dip is likely, probably multiple ones as selling trickles in. That’s normal, not a reason to run.

The fear-mongering posts are loud because they work on emotions. But if you’re thinking longer-term (multi-planetary stuff, Starlink scaling, new markets), the dip could be exactly when patient money, retail included, gets a better shot.

Don’t FOMO in at the open chasing the pop unless you’re looking for a quick trade. Think 2 to 2.5 trillion on initial first week pop. Afterwards we could see a 50%~ multi-month pullback.

For long term investors, don’t panic-sell the first red day either. Do your homework on the actual business. DCA is your golden parachute. SpaceX isn’t a quick flip; it’s a bet on execution over years.

The game is rigged toward those who don’t get shaken. Who’s actually looking at it that way instead of just repeating the “too expensive” line?

#SpaceXIPO #SPCX

[Hectaaaaaa @realhectaaaaaa]

@notayro @ShazBoi2003 Why? Bc you’re so consumed with propaganda that doing that makes you feel righteous as if you’re fighting for a great cause?