John Carruth

who do you think you are I am

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@elonmusk People don’t understand how significant that p value is

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@elonmusk I put a $100 deposit down many years ago on a cybertruck. Then when I went to find my deposit via online portal it was not registered there

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@kampferstrahl how can I hire you? I’d love the opportunity to discuss what I am working on. Won’t take much of your time at all

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@lexfridman 💯

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@karpathy This post is going to be so nostalgic in about 10 years. This perfectly captures the state of programming right now

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@JDVance You must be a father

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca @hamptonism I love picturing the little smirk that comes across your face immediately after reading this 😂

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca The middle class could completely disappear. The American dream could die - no longer practical for 99.9% of people to make it rich

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 9/?

I expect war then recession, or recession then war, then massive AI adoption due to business being required to cut costs. Then we will see a rebirth of industry that will be much different. Otherwise it will become an even more socialist version of the country than it is rn

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 1/?

I see it as follows:

AI absolutely has the capacity to replace office workers doing admin and/or semi technical work - that equates to approx 44% of the US workforce (see https://t.co/NovAMWaI2A)

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 8/?

Historically, we have found things for people to do and the workforce has adapted. This time IS different in my opinion. The government has to find something for people to do, but with most things being done by AI and robotics, morale and sense of purpose will be very low.

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 7/?

This time may be different - looking at actions over the next 60 days will be telling. The RTO for all federal working is a sign. If DOGE can drive down costs we can look at this two ways - 1) they are serious about cutting cost) or 2) they have cash to hand out stimmies

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 6/?

With the Fed’s stated mission being to keep UE low (I think but not looking this up), and responsibility to manage inflation, they will be faced with the decision on whether or not to print money during the next economic downturn. Trump proved he would do this during COVID.

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 5/?

So the vast majority of work that Americans currently do WILL be disrupted (I rarely use definitely statements). The question is how do we adapt. This is where we look to leaders and the government to shape policies and practices to drive their vision for the future.

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 4/?

Robotics comes next. Over the 2 years we should expect to see many different types of job-specific robots deployed. From 2-10 we will see mass adoption and scale, while still needing a reasonable level of human supervision. From 5-15 we should see humanoid robots take over.

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 3/?

We should expect business leaders to adopt AI. If a recession comes, there WILL be massive employment disruption. The main charts to look at (you may disagree) for a recession are UE going up, and rates going down…. Exactly where we are now.

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@pmarca 2/?

We have a tragedy occurring where large swaths of people are stuck in a system where they can do the minimum amount of work necessary to keep their job, which mostly involves a significant amount of non value adding work.

If they do more, they aren’t rewarded accordingly.

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@lexfridman would love to hear you discuss with someone the 2011 case of Aaron Swartz getting caught scraping Jstor. Could be a good talking point on a pod discussing an open internet

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

@elonmusk 1/50 is a murderer….

[John Carruth @realJohnCarruth]

After watching ravens chiefs Thursday I’d stay away from betting NFL. Three first half illegal formation penalties on Stanley then they didn’t call it when the Ravens’ weak side O line was cheating because they were going to pull. Clear signal upstairs was sending a message no ty