Shalin Madan

Ex-Hedge Fund. I use a quant approach coupled with A.I. to find the best stocks and macro trades. Occasionally offensive posts.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

I spent much of my career managing money for wealthy families. The same mistake kept repeating: build wealth for decades, then hand heirs a lump sum.

My new essay is about a better model for preserving a family legacy across generations. https://t.co/vNv3HqTs7H

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@aincomeinvestor $200,000.01

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

I have a friend who also just beat cancer, and the commonality I see between the two of you is attitude. He was always calling me in a good mood, upbeat and positive.

I see the same thing in you. Whether you have cancer or not, your smile beams through.

That’s the right attitude to have in life. In many ways, attitude is gratitude.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@cz_binance Looking great CZ!

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@FrancisSuarez Mr. Mayor you truly are a Miami guy. :-)

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

Nice day for $MU (and $SNDK) to a lesser extent.

Is this the market finally being unable to ignore the enormous cash flow?

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

New position: $UGP

Historically, UGP has been evaluated primarily through Ipiranga, its legacy fuel-distribution network. That business produces substantial cash flow, but it is mature, lower-margin, and offers less attractive incremental returns than the infrastructure businesses Ultrapar is increasingly building around it.

What makes the story interesting now is capital allocation. Ultrapar is shifting more capital toward infrastructure and logistics, expanding Ultracargo in liquid storage terminals, taking control of Hidrovias do Brasil in inland waterway logistics, and building exposure to LNG infrastructure.

These assets possess a property that I believe becomes radically more valuable in an AI-driven economy: cash flows derived from physical assets that cannot be code-generated.

Generative AI and automation will continuously compress margins for businesses anchored in pure information, labor arbitrage, and easily replicated digital output. But AI cannot replicate a strategically located port terminal, storage infrastructure, or a key waterway logistics network. These require scarce physical real estate, enormous capital investment, environmental approvals, and regulatory access.

My broader thesis is that as software-driven economic rents become easier to attack, markets will place an increasing premium on cash flows protected by physical scarcity and structural barriers to entry.

That is what makes UGP particularly interesting. Management isn't simply trying to grow EBITDA. It is changing the composition of EBITDA.

If logistics and infrastructure become a larger share of the company, UGP can potentially generate faster growth, better returns on capital, and more defensible cash flows. And higher-quality cash flows should command a higher multiple.

In other words, there are potentially two engines of return: earnings growth and multiple expansion.

The stock also screens quantitatively cheap, the balance sheet provides room to execute, and Brazil itself remains inexpensive relative to most major equity markets.

Cheap stock. Cheap market. Improving business mix. Hard-to-replicate assets.

That is a combination worth owning.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@Polymarket The comments. How can one not laugh? Amazing meme talent for real.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@BowTiedRanger @elonmusk Elon, please make everyone on this platform use their real names - or do we have to vote for a Democrat to make it happen this time around?

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@MsMelChen I'll take stereotypes across 1.5 billion people for $1,000.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@KurtSupeCPA None of the above.

Parents, read my article on how to handle your kids' inheritance.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

I spent much of my career managing money for wealthy families. The same mistake kept repeating: build wealth for decades, then hand heirs a lump sum.

My new essay is about a better model for preserving a family legacy across generations. https://t.co/vNv3HqTs7H

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@IronChestCap Kendall girls - thank me later.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

Millennials are not allowed to complain like they do with student loans when they get rekt on their houses, once AI disruption on unemployment really accelerates.

[Graham Stephan @GrahamStephan]

This might sound absolutely crazy - but now might be a GOOD time to buy a house. Almost no competition, very little demand, rising inventory, 7%+ rates, all while seller’s are approaching a slow holiday season. Lowball offers might get accepted here for those who are patient and play the numbers game.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@GrahamStephan Perhaps you'd want to incorporate AI taking unemployment to 12% by the end of the decade???

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@easttexascoder @RichardHanania How about we pay the same tax as you (nothing) and leach all the benefits?

Taker.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@elonmusk Fatty Indian Oligarchs only know Oligopolies and the country is now paying the price for it.

Free and fair industries in India are actually world class.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

$HPE up again on a day when I suspect most DeGens are getting crushed.

Valuation discipline matters.

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. The goal isn’t to own what everyone is excited about today. It’s to buy upside at a price that leaves room for things to go right.

Highlighting my latest position addition on Savvy Trader and Substack. Give me a follow if you want to stop hemorrhaging money.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

I told a founder who recently exited that $HPE is one of my top AI positions.

“HPE sucks,” he said.

Maybe. But investing isn’t a contest to name the best company. It’s about what you pay relative to what could happen next. A company everyone dismisses can do surprisingly well if it improves. A great company can be a poor investment if perfection is already priced in.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@DineshDSouza Groypers are closet Democrats...known fact at this point.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

My younger daughter was difficult from six months onward. We both knew she was different. Indeed, she was.

Parenting can be extremely difficult, depending on the personality profiles of both child and parent, which are rarely the same.

A move from traditional family values and brain dead social media like TikTok are not helping the situation one bit.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

@mtracey If President Trump stands up for men here, Republicans win for eternity.

[Shalin Madan @RealShalinM]

Stock picker's dream. Guess who shows you his picks and track record for free?

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

What do y'all think...agree or disagree?

via @BankofAmerica