Viktor

Intraday Trader | News & Technical, better at news than technical
Don't hesitate to reach out :)

[Viktor @realvik1337]

@faststocknewss Clean the text and format automatically.

Stock [Ticker] EPS vs Consensus | Rev vs consensus | FY vs consensus

Miscellaneous/specifics comments

[Kesney @kesney095]

$BTC $IBT Breakout

[Viktor @realvik1337]

I apologize to everyone who got recruited into watching this snoozefest!!! Idea didn't work.

[Viktor @realvik1337]

https://t.co/HIAEJ1Du62 ACIP meeting

[Viktor @realvik1337]

Israel/Iran escalating. Whether it is posturing or not, need to be prepared for the potential reaction to headlines. Latest development is Iran Parliament authorizing the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. There was a good trade on ETH/BTC today on this.

All previous headlines are still in play, but I would add:

- A: Tanker being sunk/attacked while trying to pass the strait. This would scale up the conflict.

Long OIL

[Viktor @realvik1337]

Headlines I'm looking for:

Israel/Iran

- A+: Kharg Island oil production being hit.
This can happen in multiple ways: Israel starting to attack the oil production or Iran doing a false flag operation pretending Israel has been hitting the wells to get more direct CN support.

Long Oil

- A++: CN invading Taiwan. Less likely now that Israel's intentions are clearer, they want to avoid impacting crude production. However things can move fast.

Short SPX / Long VIX

- S: Iran somehow finding a way to nuke a big Israel city. Best way to look for this is checking livestream of skylines once you get an alert on the sky watching Israel website. This will be faster than any news source.

Long Oil / short SPX.

A note: I really don't want this to happen but as news traders, being prepared for any outcome is what gives you an edge over the unprepared people. Risk of SPY halting for the day on this, so be careful with 0DTE.

Other

- A+ to B (Scale): RFK fired all the members of previous ACIP committee. ACIP is about vaccine policy. They will issue recommendations to CDC for future vaccination policy & schedules. Next meeting is 25-27JUN. There is a high likelihood that they do a radical overhaul of vaccination policy. You can access it by livestream.

Short MRNA/NVAX if radical change in policy is being voted.

Good luck everyone

[Viktor @realvik1337]

So we had a few interesting headlines:

- Trump gathering NSC was basically the trigger for the "US endorsing Israel & joining the war"

- Trump also touted that Iran wanted to negotiate, it's usually a good idea to try to track when he talks because his ego makes it very likely to announce the breaking news if he has a say in the matter.

So there was the long oil / short Spy on that NSC gathering and then the short oil / short vix / long spx on Iran wants to negotiate headline, however just after Trump said "I told Netanyahu to keep going" which is not bearish for oil so tricky to manage it.

When you trade news you need to differentiate between dynamic & static headlines, and it's more of a scale than a binary outcome.

Dynamic will be for instance Trump talking during a press conference. He can say something making markets go one way but 7mn later, he will say something else making it reverse because a journalist will ask about something else that could still be broadly related to the market theme.

Way less likely that Trump changes his mind on a tweet (or truth post) because he doesn't have direct interaction with the public, questions from journalists etc.

A PR is an example of a very static headline. Company issues a press release on the matter, it has been crafted carefully and they have literally 0 reason to reverse it.

[Viktor @realvik1337]

Israel / Iran escalation happening. Breaking news I am looking for:

- A++: CN, being biggest Iran oil importer, could use the chaos to invade Taiwan as US carriers are leaving to provide support to intercept Iran missiles.

Short SPX/Long VIX

- A+: US specifically endorsing Israel and joining Israel in the war against Iran. Short SPX/Long VIX/ Long CL

Oil will probably just go up on this, more than one day move.

[Viktor @realvik1337]

A+ breaking news yesterday evening as Israel attacked Iran. It was brewing and there were warning signs such as US embassies being evacuated.

Looking for specific breaking news trades out of this:

- Headlines about escalation, especially anything related to heavy damage done to Israel
- Headlines about Iran closing major trades routes such as Strait of Hormuz might be slower, but will bring inflation higher in EU

[Viktor @realvik1337]

This week:
- CPI / 10Y Auction Wednesday
- Jobless Claims / PPI / 30Y Auction Thursday
- Michigan Inflation Friday

Mkts
- SPY: Continues to be extremely strong, every dip is being bought. Hold of 600 and break of ytd high for continuation at 601.
- QQQ: Relatively weaker the last 3 days to SPY, probably due to uncertainty around tech/tsla. 531.8 and then 533 for resistances

Stocks
- RKLB | Speculation around SpaceX being defunded and finding an alternative | 30.8 weekly / 33.34 ATH.
- ASTS | Speculation around Starlink being defunded | 33.6 / 35.6 weekly, extended
- TSLA | On watch for breaking news, developments
- QUBT | Moving on IONQ acquisition of quantum startup, very shorted | 14.68 weekly breakout

Mentions
- HOOD | Not included in S&P | 71.2 Breakdown / 69.42 breakdown

Headlines
- A++: Trump declaring martial law following civil unrest (Short SPY/Long VIX)
- A+ : General strike against Trump policies (Short SPY)
- A: Trump cutting subsidies from SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla. (Short TSLA, long competitors RKLB/ASTS)
- A: Company being forbidden to sell to tariffed country when its a major client (like SNPS/CDNS)

- B+: Company deemed hostile by WH, short company

[Viktor @realvik1337]

Uncertainty ramping up means a few potential trades. I am talking worst case scenarios because these will be the A+ trades.

- A++: Trump declaring Martial Law following potential escalation in LA. Short SPY/Long VIX
- A: Trump actually cutting Tesla / SpaceX subsidies. Short TSLA

Rest of the list is the same

[Viktor @realvik1337]

I would be on the lookout for this type of news trades that imo can give you really good R:R. USGOV seems to grow fond of interventionism, which markets hate.

Companies being heavily disrupted by politics will bring very clean moves as the uncertainty requires repositioning.

- A: Ordered to stop selling XYZ to major client (SNPS yesterday)
- A: Company reacting with conservative approach to financials (can be at a conference, use quartr, can be an 8K, an investor's letter etc.) Latest example is SNPS suspending guidance.
- B+: Ordered to manufacture in the US, or anywhere heavily disturbing internal supply chain process therefore driving costs (AAPL saga)

This can get way worse if Trump's gov turns into an actual authoritarian regime on the financial market, thus increasing the frequency of those trades.

[Viktor @realvik1337]

Mkts: Trump reiterating 50% tariffs on EU. Unlikely to have the same dramatic outcome than first time. However a few things to look for:
- Unusual Volume picking up (3+ stdev candles)
- We are entering quarterly OPEX next week which has been a window of fragility in March, could repeat
- If EU escalates, like CN did, this could go lower for a bit.
- Bonds are high, more macro but wall st loves cheap money, not expensive loans.

QQQ: 500 is key level.

Stocks
- AAPL: 25% tariff threat, market weak. Looking for PM Breakdown 193.2. Target 190/185 and/or exhaustion candle.
- OKLO: 41.5 hold. Nuclear / Uranium hot theme
- RUN: Tax credit deleted, did a -40% day 1. Watching for a break of YLOD next few days, break of 5.45 very significant

Headlines
- A: Covid momentum in Asia (MRNA/PFE/BNTX)
- A: ONLY IF Escalation from EU, Trump making "a deal" where things go back to normal, will reverse with momentum.
- B+: US Company deemed 'hostile' by WH. Downside company in question, momentum trade. Often linked to manufacturing costs.
- B: Escalation from EU like CN did.

[Viktor @realvik1337]

Another example of a company deemed "hostile". AAPL threatened with 25% tariffs on Iphones.

Trying to strong arm US manufacturing will never work. More likely than not, next one will come out of trump's truthsocial so might be a good idea to follow it despite the noise.

[Viktor @realvik1337]

Potential monster move in pharma: Trump announcing 30-80% drug price reduction. This is extinction level scenario for some companies (if true). Will have more details at 9AM.

Some selling overnight sesh, might continue and move into panic AM.

- MRK
- PFE
- JNJ
- ABBV
- LLY

[Viktor @realvik1337]

Markets: SPY & QQQ gapped up on trade "deal" announcement even though a trade deal with a surplus country. FOMC discourse was neutral/bearish. "Wait and see", wait for numbers to show that tariffs have an effect. Key levels are 568.4. 200SMA is at 573.

Stocks:
- QQQ/SPY: Looking for a sell the news event at 10. Could be the trigger of another down wave of multiple days.
- QBTS D1: Earnings. Levels: 8.16 to 8.26 / 10 / 11.4. When these are hot they tend to drop on open, trap and then reverse. GGG setup.
- ASST D2: Crypto pivot runup. Holding 5 can see 7 or more if going crazy. Looking for double top, holding VWAP into short trap breakout.
- SHOP D1: Earnings. No bias, just looking at what the stock does.
- NVDA D2: Reversal of Biden AI protection. In theory more demand for the NVDA products. Watching YHOD 117.66 for continuation higher, however will depend on the reaction to UK deal on markets.

Headlines:
- A++: Chinese Blockade of Taiwan. Downside TSM/Semis
- A: Trump firing Powell. Upside IWM. Downgraded because market has been running up a lot already.
- A+: Actual delisting of Chinese equities from NQ/NYSE. Downside CN (FXI/BABA)
- A: RFK banning fructose syrup. Downside KO/PEP
- A: New CBER Head inducing more fear through proposals to harm vaccine/biotech. Downside PFE/MRNA.
- B+: Bill for 3rd party stores on Apple being passed. Downside AAPL.
- B+: Company deemed 'hostile' by WH. Downside company in question, momentum trade, can absolutely reverse after.

[Viktor @realvik1337]

@robertoclaroar1 Hey Roberto, what makes you think of this as A+? I'm talking about the headline. The price was clearly uncommon, with the crazy volume + option flow. But I just don't understand why this is such a key headline. Especially AAPL dropped as well, so it makes it even more confusing