Reasonus4

Analyzing markets, policies and participants.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

As long as future retirees do not wake up & GTFO, the $SPY $QQQ $DIA scam continues.

Passive investing permitting charlatans & grifters to turn quality assets into shitcoin ETFs.

S&P constituent $TSLA is overbought by $1 TRILLION. That is just one of many scams in the S&P.

[Gerardo Moscatelli @gemoscatelli]

"Nasdaq changed its rules so SpaceX auto-qualifies for the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 days of trading triggering up to $60 BILLION in forced buying from ETFs alone. S&P Dow Jones Indices is now consulting on whether to fast-track S&P 500 inclusion for unprofitable mega-cap IPOs of this scale."
Ladies and gents, fasten your seatbelt.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

Those of us who know better should be warning anyone to retire within 5yrs to GTFO of $SPY $QQQ $VOO $DIA

This is what happens when any narrative goes too far - as the passive investing narrative has.

If scammers see nobody guarding henhouse, they will abuse that market inertia. Passive investing is creating the biggest grift in US history.

S&P is a complete scam full of trillion $ megacap scams. Tesla alone is overbought by $1.2 Trillion.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@antibearthesis Idiots to think there was a reason for this … sell the weird, counterfactual spike.
Retire early.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@unusual_whales Oh god make it stop. Final negotiations now m its 4th month - OIL inventories have been dropping the entire time. There is no buffer.

Get out of the SPY, QQQ bubble

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

Rest of the world is using Chinese chips. Both Ray Dalio & fmr $GOOG CEO (Eric Schmidt) say China is way ahead in AI and Robotics.

More US firms using DeepSeek over no ROI/costly Claude, ChatGPT, etc.

US tech investors are totally oblivious. China has power generation & lower cost of innovation. While the US spent $15 trillion on Israel’s wars, the rest of the world won the fight for the future.

$SPY $QQQ $VOO $DIA bubble is a fear response, a way to deny reality. We do not want to admit boomers fucked everything up but they did.

Overpaying for US megacaps does not change economics.

Diversifying outside of the US. If $BYDDY was valued same way as $TSLA, BYD would have to run 12x.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@AshCrypto S&P trades like a shitcoin now.
The plunge has not even begun.

$SPY ran from 680 as #oil doubled & 50% of data centers canceled & AI narrative kept crumbling.

One of the weirdest runs ever.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@Kalshi 🚨semi bubble makes up 40% of S&P

Save retirement accounts (sell S&P and all megacaps) before the BTC/ETH drawdown spills over into semiconductors.

Already starting. $ARM $AVGO $AMD $INTC $NVDA $SMH

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

AI/semi trade is under pressure from every angle (50% of data centers canceled for a reason).

$SPY is now 40%, the semi bubble.

Retirement account should not hold S&P. What is happening to $ETH $BTC $MSTR $BMNR is coming for S&P. Financial advisors are failing their clients.

S&P is trading like a shitcoin.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@DarioCpx 💯 Amazing that $SPX bounced as all economic data points plunged & #Oil morphed from a temp spike to one that will last for years.

$BTC $ETH implosion will roll into $QQQ $VOO $SOXX $SMH

reason to sell $SPY and air until below 680 is 40% of S&P now comprised of semis.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@Mr_Derivatives It’s coming. Sell Scammers & Poors while gamblers are complacent.

That $SPY spike was an early retirement bonus.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@Polymarket @1CoastalJournal Suddenly 😂
Time to fess up before crash.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@wallstreetbets What dip? S&P is more expensive than during Dot com.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@calvinfroedge The whole world was levered to the tits. No wonder scammers are fast tracking shitty IPOs at inflated prices.

$GOOGL share offering and $MU insiders selling house on fire - marked the turn.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

Only fools would believe Trump was ever in negotiations with Iran.

Of course the peace talks were fake.
#OIL $XLE $XOP $XOM #OOTT

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

🚨 ABSOLUTE BOMBSHELL: Expert Robert Kagan exposes a massive Trump administration coverup! He confirms Trump is intentionally manipulating oil markets with fake peace talks.

Global strategic reserves are nearly empty. A catastrophic energy shock will hit within weeks!

[Kush @kushika_twt]

Microsoft pulled the plug on Claude.

Starbucks’ AI can't count cups.

Uber burned billions on AI with little to show for it.

Amazon shut down its AI leaderboard.

the AI bubble will burst any minute now.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@antibearthesis wtf are we talking about? S&P is still more expensive than it was during Dot Com. wtf are investors in their 20s celebrating?

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@BusinessInsider All of a sudden? LOL. Damn Crooks.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@StockSavvyShay Dear god, how does she get people to give her money?

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

$NVDA is in a precarious position.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Three customers. 64% of the money Nvidia is owed.

The investor who shorted the 2008 housing crash just bought puts on 1 million Nvidia shares, and that one number is the reason.

It is not the size that matters. It is the slope. Those three were 33% of Nvidia's receivables in 2020. They were 56% last quarter. They are 64% now. The dependence has nearly doubled in six years, and 8 of those points landed in a single quarter.

Here is the part the headlines skip. The money Nvidia is owed is now more concentrated than the money it earns. For the first time in 13 quarters, its single biggest customer claimed a larger share of receivables while taking a smaller share of sales. Burry's read: that buyer is paying slower than it is buying, or orders got pulled forward. His phrase for it, a finger on the trigger.

His thesis: today's AI spend is a benchmarking race, not durable demand. Empty planes flown for the leaderboard. Nvidia has fallen 43% to 67% in past cycles, and he thinks the next one is worse.

And the same three giants are building their own chips, Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium, Microsoft's Maia, to need Nvidia less every year.

Now the bull case, and it is real. Nvidia discloses all of this by law, still collects its cash on time, and is rated 39 buys to 1 sell. The cloud giants have lined up $660 to $700 billion of AI spending this year alone.

So this is concentration, not a crime. One of those three delaying, renegotiating, or shifting to its own silicon would hit the most important cash flow in the market harder than anything else. A real fragility. Not proof the demand is fake.

The test is the next filing, in August. If the three slip back under 60% and the cash keeps flowing, Burry is early. If their share climbs or payments slow, the finger tightens.

The number is real, and Nvidia disclosed it. Whether it is a warning or just arithmetic is what the next two quarters decide.

[Reasonus4 @reasonus4]

@InvestingAddict It’s coming for S&P QQQ and semis