Ambiguous Avocado

Bicycling Avocado just peddling about the twitterverse.

[Inequality Media @InequalityMedia]

The Founding Fathers' list of grievances against King George III was spot on.

Remind you of anyone?

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

The end is nigh.
Dancing with the devil in the pale moon light.

[Laughing_Stonk @laughing_stonk]

Saw a #WorldCupMatch at #AMC and it was one of the most memorable experiences watching a sporting event. I believe I enjoyed it better than going to a bar or restaurant. I look forward to the next one! 🦍🍿

[Shill Hunter 🦍🌙 @shillhunter80]

$AMC @AMCTheatres

[World Health Organization (WHO) @WHO]

Children worldwide experience bullying on the internet, deeply affecting their mental health. Many cases even go unreported.

We must prevent online violence against children and reverse this trend for good. Here's what you can do as a parent or teacher.

[AMC Theatres @AMCTheatres]

You know where to find us this holiday weekend 🌭

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

US government debt relative to GDP is back to 1940s levels, and interest payments are a particular burden, per FT:

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

Mark Zuckerberg is bankrupting a $22 billion startup because they refused to sell to him.

The company is Kalshi.

They run the largest prediction market in the US. Users bet real money on real-world outcomes.

Last year, prediction markets did $28 billion in monthly volume across the industry.

This month, they did $220 BILLION.

The sector literally 8x'd in a single year.

Bernstein now projects the entire prediction market industry will hit $1 TRILLION by 2030.

Zuckerberg saw the growth curve coming. Last year, when Kalshi was valued at only $2 billion, he sat down with founder and CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss buying the entire company.

Mansour said no.

Kalshi went on to raise at $11 billion in December. Then $22 billion in March. It is now pursuing a $40 billion round and openly weighing an IPO.

Zuckerberg's response:

He walked back to Meta headquarters, took every piece of information he learned in that meeting, and directed a small internal team to build a Kalshi clone from the ground up.

Meta's version is called Arena. It uses Llama to generate the questions. Every one of Meta's 3.5 billion daily users will get access.

And here's where the plan gets ruthless...

Meta is deliberately launching with play money. That single decision lets Zuckerberg dodge every gambling regulator on Earth while he trains billions of users to bet on prediction markets.

Meanwhile Kalshi is spending millions fighting state gambling laws, the CFTC, an Illinois sports tax, a Minnesota felony statute, and the Department of Justice.

Kalshi is the crash test dummy. Meta is the getaway driver.

The moment the regulatory war is settled, Zuckerberg flips the switch. Arena becomes a real-money market, and 3.5 billion users are already trained to use it. Kalshi's user base of a few million cannot compete.

This is the exact playbook Meta ran on Snapchat in 2016 when Instagram Stories launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on TikTok in 2020 when Reels launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on Twitter in 2023 when Threads launched.

The FTC took Meta to court over this pattern last year and called it "buy or bury." The judge sided with Meta. So the playbook is legally protected.

Tarek Mansour walked into a meeting with the most predatory copycat in tech history and gave him the entire pitch deck for the fastest growing product in Silicon Valley.

Six months later, Zuckerberg is executing on that intel while Mansour is stuck defending his company in courts across America.

Kalshi survived Zuckerberg's offer. But it probably will not survive Zuckerberg's clone.

Meta ended Q1 with $81 billion in cash. That is enough to buy every prediction market company on Earth six times over. Zuckerberg is choosing to STEAL them instead because he can, and because the courts already gave him permission.

The next 12 months will decide whether Kalshi becomes a $50 billion IPO or a cautionary tale about what happens when a founder says no to Meta.

What do you think?

[Tyler Black, MD @tylerblack32]

Since Trump took office:

* Elon net worth is $980B (+$500B)
* Donald Trump's family ~$10B, up about $7B
* Top 15 billionaires: up 33%

And USAID was cut 6 billion, resulting in hundreds of thousands of or the poorest people needlessly dying and suffering.

/1

[snoopy posters @snoomfies]

It’s hot out there, stay hydrated !

[Nancy Of The North Is Back @snoopysrevenge]

Need I say more…? Oh yeah…
#AMCNEVERLEAVING

[Ambiguous Avocado @RedbackMc]

@KatStryker111 @charligiirl

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

INFLATION & MONETARY POLICY: I know it’s only a little over 1,300 votes, but there is signal in the overwhelming majority response. My X audience is primarily retail. My LinkedIn audience skews professional. Roughly 85% of both audiences think the Fed is not serious about its 2% inflation target.

Much like K-shaped fiscal policy and K-shaped regulatory policy, K-shaped monetary policy—which few have the courage to discuss openly—is a big problem for the low-to-median-income households in our country.

Historically, the @federalreserve has prioritized supporting asset markets to support the income and wealth accumulation of households on the top of the “K” over prioritizing containing inflation for the households on the bottom of the “K”—roughly 80% of whom do not own stocks and cannot come up with $1,000 to cover an emergency expense.

Will Kevin Warsh’s Fed leadership change this? Time will tell. But it's important to me to provide this context as someone who's been blessed to ascend from the bottom 0.001% of this "K" to appreciably up the top.

Happy Independence Day! May God bless America and may the Holy Spirit heal our deliberately broken society. ❤️+🤍+ 💙= 💜

[Laurence (Larry) Boorstein @LarryBoorstein]

DOGE showed they were morons with a series of gotcha moments:
- DOGE claimed to have discovered USAID was paying for condoms for Gaza which they joked was for "gay Hamas." It turned out the condoms were HIV/AIDS prevention for Gaza, Mozambique.
- DOGE claimed that USAID was paying for BBC. It turned out USAID was donating to BBC Media Action, a charity. BBC is funded by licenses in the UK.
- DOGE claimed there were 120+year old "vampires" as DOGE called them on Social Security. It turned out that a dummy date like 00/00/1900 was used in COBOL for records to be deleted and no benefits checks were going to the dummy names.

[Robert Reich @RBReich]

This economy is lousy.

Anyone who voted for Trump in 2024 should have buyer’s remorse.

Some thoughts... https://t.co/6PtYNZZ9wh

[NWS Lincoln IL @NWSLincolnIL]

Here is a plot of the total tornadoes by state as of 3 pm July 1. The numbers were obtained by the quality controlled tornado tracks in the Damage Assessment Toolkit database. #ILwx #tornadoes

[Kat Stryker @KatStryker111]

💯

[AMC🦍APE @RobertLindelof1]

REPOST THIS EVERYWHERE...
WE CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE WHERE THE PRICE GOES IF WE ORDER DIRECTLY THROUGH A LIT EXCHANGE!!!!

[Ambiguous Avocado @RedbackMc]

@KatStryker111 @rocketastronaut

[Kat Stryker @KatStryker111]

🔥 YOUR TRADE ISN'T GOING WHERE YOU THINK 🔥

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💚 𝗙𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗟𝗜𝗧𝗬
1️⃣ Open Active Trader Pro
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📱 Mobile support — but desktop is the sure bet

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💙 𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝗕𝗥𝗢𝗞𝗘𝗥𝗦
1️⃣ Open Trader Workstation (TWS) 💻
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🧡 𝗦𝗖𝗛𝗪𝗔𝗕
1️⃣ Call Schwab ☎️ — ask for "Direct Access Trading"
2️⃣ Open StreetSmart Edge
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⚠️ Not self-serve — depends on the rep

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🏆 BOTTOM LINE: IBKR = most reliable worldwide. Fidelity = great on desktop.

📊 Not financial advice. Routing changes — verify with your broker.

#stocks #trading #IEX