reddit AMA

The official twitter for /r/IAmA - reddit's Ask Me Anything subreddit.

[Jake Broe @RealJakeBroe]

This chart is insane. This shows Russia's casualties over time compared to Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine over the last five years.

No sane or rational person would say continuing the war to try and take more of Ukraine's territory is worth the casualties.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

CONCLUSION 🧵(1/2): Putin would have the world, and especially the United States, believe that he is somehow holding back from crushing Ukraine, but that he could do so at any moment of his choosing. The opposite is the case.

If Putin had had a way of ending the war quickly, he surely would have used it. The effort to field an army large enough to make virtually no gains is costing Putin a fortune, driving up inflation in Russia, and generating increasing social discontent. Fielding a larger army would cost more with no guarantee of materially changing the situation on the front. That is why Putin is holding back at least for now. ⬇️

Putin has likely recognized the folly of trying to drown Ukraine in Russian blood and has instead opted to try to hammer Ukraine into submission with a strategic bombing campaign. The Russians have secured a temporary advantage in the skies over Ukraine through their jet-powered drones and the shortage of Patriot missiles that can intercept their ballistic missiles. But Ukraine is fielding solutions to defend against the jet-powered drones, and it is hardening and decentralizing its infrastructure to survive the ballistic missile strikes (as well as developing its own ballistic missile interceptors, although that effort will take time).

The Russian strikes are currently devastating Ukrainian energy and other infrastructure and imposing a brutal cost on Ukrainian civilians—as Putin intends. But there is no reason to think that this strategic bombing campaign will be any more successful than every other strategic bombing campaign in history—all of which have failed to compel a country holding its own on the battlefield to surrender.

[This You? @Thiss_Youu]

“gas prices will drop to $3 before the midterms”

[pokey pup @Whatapityonyou]

Elon’s lawyers frantically trying to call him right now

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

This is more evidence for Congress, which can easily determine if Ukraine violated any terms of service. It also constitutes a tacit admission by Musk that he played a part — if not the central role — in throttling Starlink.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

MORE: Putin is trying once again to breathe life into the myth of inevitable Russian military victory in order to persuade the United States and other supporters of Ukraine to compel Kyiv to surrender. Putin constantly asserts that Russian forces are making gains along the entire frontline. He makes claims of territorial gains so far from reality as to be fantasy. He hearkens back to the Soviet Union and the Red Army to evoke images of Soviet hordes overrunning the German Wehrmacht. But these claims, images, and maps of supposed Russian gains are all fictional. Reality is quite the opposite.

[Saint Javelin @saintjavelin]

Says man who has spent nearly $1B on political campaigns

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

Should be evidence for any congressional inquiries into what happened with Starshield. If Musk is throttling a Pentagon-run defense network, which was commissioned to work in a partner nation as a matter of U.S. policy, because of his own political bias or desire to sway the midterms he’s heavily invested in (see his subsequent tweet), then he represents a national security risk. I’d argue he represents that anyway.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

SPECIAL REPORT: Russian military victory over Ukraine is not inevitable. It is extraordinarily unlikely, in fact, unless Western support for Ukraine collapses.

There is simply no inevitable correlation between the relative size of combatants and the outcome of a war — particularly when the war is existential for the smaller state but not for the larger one, as is true today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is nevertheless trying once again to breathe life into the myth of inevitable Russian military victory in order to persuade the United States and other supporters of Ukraine to compel Kyiv to surrender.

Ukraine, not Russia, has actually held the initiative in key sectors of the frontline for much of the year and has developed a number of ways of offsetting the overall Russian manpower advantage.

Russia’s population and relative (but diminishing) wealth will let Putin continue his war for a long time, to be sure. But Ukraine can also continue fighting for its existence as long as Western support continues.

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

What about my paintings again?

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. https://t.co/8AyV60gg1X

[Jake Tapper 🦅 @jaketapper]

"Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine. They haven't been doing much."

- President Trump, earlier today

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

PS I’ve met Putin many times and listened in on calls with him as well. I also speak Russian. Yes he is soft spoken, deliberate, and measured. So what? He’s still a killer. He still launched a barbaric invasion of Ukraine, that has produced tragic loss of life not seen on this scale in Europe since WWII.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

zelenskyy reports russia struck 10+ energy facilities in attacks overnight

according to trump, it’s z who ‘doesn’t want to end the war’

deeply orwellian

[Joe Patrice @JosephPatrice]

Imagine being dumb enough to think the problem here was “not passing the bar” or “not having a license” as opposed to CLAIMING TO BE A GENERAL COUNSEL WITHOUT A LICENSE

https://t.co/niS6jFE0ev

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

Trump is so angry that Ukrainians won’t surrender and die quietly so he and his friends can make money with Putin.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine’s Starlink systems remain capped at 161 km/h (100 mph), according to Christopher Miller of the Financial Times. He said exceeding the limit “causes the Starlink connection to cut out completely, resulting in the loss of the drone,” adding that interceptor drones can’t function.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine tested whether SpaceX is truly facing technical issues, as the U.S. side told Kyiv, by sending vehicles with Starlink terminals into EU territory. He said they moved at more than 180 km/h and the systems “worked perfectly.” He said Ukraine has logs and evidence, and concluded the restrictions apply inside Ukraine but not in the EU, which he called a “planned operation.”

[reddit AMA @reddit_AMA]

@RachellePCH1 @KTLA You can read.

[Laura Rozen @lrozen]

“Elon Musk approached Donald Trump with the idea of slowing down Starlink in Ukraine, The Telegraph can reveal.
The billionaire tech entrepreneur approached the US president with the proposal to introduce speed limits on the system, which hampered Ukraine’s drone defences, according to four sources familiar with the discussions.
One of the sources said Mr Trump “agreed” with Mr Musk’s suggestion, paving the way for the Pentagon to execute the slowdown on Starshield, the military-grade version of the satellite communications system.

[reddit AMA @reddit_AMA]

@RachellePCH1 @KTLA I love to joke that everything north of the 8 is Los Angeles but be serious.