Raj_V

Beginner Investor. Focussed on learning and hoping earnings will follow.

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@growthrapidly $HROW

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@CornerMint @InfinityTradesX I could only second this. For the amount of experience and knowledge C share on this platform (free and with nothing expected back) he seems extremely down to earth. Nothing but love and respect to Mr.C. Thanks to all you do 🙏

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@Crussian17 Wonder what changed your conviction suddenly?

[M. V. Cunha @mvcinvesting]

Today, $NBIS released its Q1 2025 results.

As you know, this is the largest position in my portfolio, so it was definitely the one I was most looking forward to reviewing.

In this thread, I’ll break down everything you need to know about the Earnings Report: 🧵👇🏻

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@Crussian17 It is like renting your home for few days to strangers while you are away for a couple of days.. well that is not for me.

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@mvcinvesting Wish I could do it twice 😀

[TrumpGrift Capital🇺🇦 @Crussian17]

Ok I think this may be my last post on the day on this.

The big mistake I think ppl are making in assuming US had the advantage in this tariff war is that we are so much bigger so everyone else has to fold. The problem is Trump just did this against Canada, Mexico, and China AT THE SAME TIME. basically you can win a fight against a small dude but how about three small dudes?

Is Canada economy going to get hurt by our Mexico tariffs? Is Mexico going to get hurt by our Canada and China tariffs? So while the impact to these counties from our Tariffs is large, the cumulative effects on the US by putting tariffs on all three at the same time is much bigger than had we gone one at a time.

If Mexico china and Canada all retaliate against us and escalate the impact to our economy and markets will be quite large.

Picking a fight with all three at the same time just seems so stupid and egotistical and lacking any ability to understand consequences. Canada has already said they are preparing stimulus due to tariffs and we know China can do stimulus anytime too. So imagine they escalate but do stimulus to counter effects on their citizens, meanwhile there is zero chance Trump and republicans are approving any further stimulus here so in this case the US will feel tariff fight more than they will…

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@SixSigmaCapital I notice $UBER is acting precisely that way.

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@InfinityTradesX Hi C, Thanks for the all knowledge you share on this platform. Just wondering if someone chan share some thoughts on what needs to happen to have weekly options open on this ticker ? daily volume seems picked up a lot in the last few weeks though.

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@AdamoMancino Thank you!

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

Imagine the time and effort that could be saved with right solution for this. $ONDS

[Nick Sortor @nicksortor]

🚨 JUST IN: A MASSIVE search effort is underway in Hillsborough, NJ after a “possible drone landing,” per CBS New York

Multiple agencies—including hazmat teams—are on scene, and the FBI has now gotten involved.

Crews are doing a “wide area search” on foot and four-wheelers, but are releasing NO statements to the public.

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@mvcinvesting $ONDS

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@Crussian17 looking at the price action in the last couple of days, you got this precisely.

[Raj_V @Reddy__V]

@SixSigmaCapital I can not believe that they are able push this to red after that Q earnings. I would rather take that as an opp than complain 😀

[MarketswithMay @marketswithmay]

$SOFI… Great Q, trading -9%, and a hefty beat vs. Street. Day traders may do their thing,

But the Bears, really don't have a fundamental thesis any longer. This quarter really exposes them as a bunch of day traders (see Book Value & ROTCE)

I’m holding through March inclusion. Here’s what I saw:

1) The Standard Metrics
2) Product Growth Notes
3) Loan Mix
4) Non-Interest Income
5) Book Value & ROTCE

Standard Growth Metrics
Revenue +30%, Net Income up $60M from a loss. They now meet requirements for investable indices ($IWM, $MDY, MSCI Midcap series).

Membership is up 34% y-o-y, and more importantly, cross-sell metrics indicate solid sell-through. I care more about the pace of new product launches (DPO, asset management, etc.), expected in 2025. Card business remains robust, with credit deterioration limited, driving Interchange Income up 211%.

And Bears, even without talking BV, this will offset NIM compression for $SOFI, which came in a touch this Quarter as expected. Obvi the card biz has higher margins than PL and with the yield curve wonky, Private Credit will continue to exhibit very strong demand as this biz grows which brings me to my next point.

Loan Mix + Rates
Credit deterioration is minimal. Small decline in Personal Loans (PL) as expected, but Student Loans are up with prepayment balancing delinquencies. Student loans only account for 3% of growth. I’m super happy to see that continue to shrink as a % of the total loan mix.

Mortgages grew 38%, PL 26%. This is so much a better mix for $SOFI going forward. My 2025 macro thesis for all financials is includes what I foresee as a solid increase in ARM mortgage volume due to too much volatility in the long end of the rate curve that makes it hard for Banks to release capital from HTM.

Non-interest income
This is mostly origination fees and speaks to the strong demand from Private Credit. This trend will continue for some time as I have stated in the past. This is because of Strategic Positioning of their balance sheet (aka, they can lend where as others cannot given their mix of AVS and HTM vs other banks)

The volatility in the long end of the curve is creating massive short-duration demand in the Private Credit markets. $SOFI primarily focuses on high-quality loans. Hence, since the entire market is being forced to go so short duration, this fee growth will continue.

From what I see, you don't have a risk to this anytime soon. And, if you start having a political climate that wants to cut spending, this will solidify $SOFI's lead even more.

Book Value & ROTCE
Finally Bears, you’ve suggested $SOFI is overvalue as a bank and I have responded: Challenge!

And while others are all about the FinTech, I’ve been steadfastly holding to that: $SOFI is a bank is a terrible Bear argument.

Here’s what’s up: Tangible Book Value rose 16% to $4.4B, and trailing 12-mo ROTCE is now 4.8%. That’s a double.

BUT, let’s talk EBITDA. Normally, you wouldn’t use EBITDA for a bank b/c of the nature of the Asset of a traditional bank (aka the A is amortization of loans). However, most of the D&A for $SOFI is depreciation of the tech assets.

In other words, you likely should use EBITDA if you’re trying to figure out some concept of a terminal ROTCE or - for $SOFI - a growth in ROTCE. As a result, you would get a 12m trailing EBITDA-based ROTCE of 14.7%. Just FYI, that's higher than $GS right now.

But here’s the thing, none of those larger stable banks are growing EBITDA by 90% as $SOFI did this quarter.
Bears, I know your gut is going to reject this argument, but just a gentle reminder that they finished a huge tech upgrade cycle a year ago. Depreciation on tech is only 4-7 years.

Also, add to this, the idea that if DPO ramp-up and an M&A cycle in 2025 and I think at some point, you may want to just own your error in suggesting $SOFI is just a bank and is therefore overvalued.

[M5IVE @ive_m5]

LETS FUCKING GO
$ONDS

[Eric Brock @CeoOndas]

Our team @AiroboticsUAV is privileged to support these critical efforts to help secure the homeland.

@OndasHoldings
@AmericanRobotic

[Eric Brock @CeoOndas]

Important message 👇🏼