Olivia
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@RedHottLocks
Just Providing The Stats 📊 || Daily NBA/NFL Plays & 100% Transparent Results || Partners With @propsmadness ➡️ Use Code: RHL
Joined June 2023
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2025-26 NBA Regular Season Recap 🏀✏️
Record: 161-98 (62%)
Units Won: +47.58u 📈
ROI: 18.31%
MVP: Josh Giddey (7-0 + a few lottos) 🐐
Overall very happy with our first full NBA season posting picks on X! 🎉
We started hot and were pretty consistent through the season, avoiding any significant losing streaks along the way! Although we didn’t hit my goal of a +50 unit season, we got super close! We move on to the playoffs and the MLB season! ⚾️
Super excited for the future of RHL, thank you guys for all the support this season! 🙏
@tipsterdiogo Love it!
October 23rd NBA Card 🏀✏️
Let’s be great! 📈
• Tyrese Haliburton o9.5 Assists
• Lauri Markkanen o21.5 Points
• Luka Doncic o46.5 PRA
• Longshot Parlay (+3275)
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Oct 23rd || NBA Longshot Parlay Of The Day 🏀
0.05u - 3 Legs: (+3275, B365)
• Tyrese #Haliburton 20+ Points
• Tyrese Haliburton 10+ Assists
• Luka #Doncic Triple Double
Obviously a pretty long shot here, but I like both of these guys’ matchups quite a bit and think it’s worth a sprinkle!
• Last season the #Mavs gave up the 6th MOST points and the 8th MOST assists to PGs… it’s also Haliburton’s first official home game since his Achilles injury which I think will motivate him.
• As seen in our writeup for the Luka’s PRA (check my page 📊) the matchup against the #Clippers is a good one. In home games without LeBron and against bottom 15 defences to PGs, Luka has a TD in 2/6.
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@Darius000008 Let’s hope he cooks!
Oct 23rd || NBA Pick Of The Day 🏀
Lauri #Markkanen o21.5 Points (-115, B365)
• Over in 0/1 this season, but this is all about the matchup.
• Over in 28/42 last season.
• We are mainly attacking the #Pelicans’ defence against SFs and his dominant scoring zone.
• Last season, the Pelicans allowed the 4th MOST points to SFs (24.7/game) and THE MOST the season before that (24.6/game).
• Additionally, the Pelicans had the 5th WORST defence against Markkanen’s DSZ (restricted area) which is where he scores 56% of his points and allowed the 2nd MOST 3PM which is where he scores 39% of his points.
• In similar matchups last season (against teams with a bottom 15 defensive rating and bottom 15 3P defence) Markkanen was over in 6/6.
• Obviously, with JJJ and the addition of Peterson, the Jazz now have more scoring options… but given the easy matchup I think 22 points is very doable for Lauri!
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Oct 23rd || NBA Pick Of The Day 🏀
0.85u - Luka #Doncic o46.5 PRA (-115, B365)
• Over in 38/64 last season.
• Over in 3/4 vs the #Clippers last season (3/3 with 25+ mins).
• Over in 12/15 without #LeBron last year.
• We’re obviously attacking a LeBron-less Lakers team where Luka is finally the “do everything” man.
• Last season, the Clippers allowed the 10th MOST PRA to opposing guards and
• In similar matchups last season (without LeBron and against teams with bottom 15 PRA defence to PGs) Luka was over in 8/9.
• In the Lakers first game, Luka had 43 PRA in 30 minutes on 39% shooting…
• The main risk I see here is a blowout, however the Clippers didn’t look bad in their first game so I’m not too worried about that.
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Oct 23rd || NBA Pick Of The Day 🏀
0.75u - Tyrese #Haliburton o9.5 Assists (-105, B365)
• Over in 1/1 this season.
• Last season, the #Mavs allowed the 8th MOST assists to PGs (9.2/game).
• In their first game this season the Mavs allowed 11 assists to Fred VanVleet (who’s not necessarily a pass first guard) on 11 potentials and 65 passes made.
• Last season, similar guards (#Cunningham, #Doncic, Harden) were over their assist lines in 5/7 against the Mavs.
• In Haliburton’s first game this season (against the Pelicans who are also a weak defence to PG assists, also allowing 9.2/game last season) Hali put up 12 assists on 20 potentials and 73 passes made.
• Home opener for the Pacers and Haliburton’s first regular season game back in Indiana since his Achilles injury… I have a feeling he’s gonna cook.
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October 22nd NBA Recap ✏️
1-0 (+0.69u)
✅ Tyrese Maxey o4.5 Assists
YTD: 2-1 (+0.29u)
Absolutely abysmal start for the 76ers but Maxey comes through in the second half and cashes the o5.5 bump as well!
Already eyeing some plays for tomorrow! Should be posted soon…⏳
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Oct 22nd || NBA Pick Of The Day 🏀
Tyrese #Maxey o4.5 Assists (-145, B365)
• Over in 1/1 this season.
• Over in 63/82 (77%) last season.
• Over in 3/3 vs the #Cavs last season.
• We are mainly attacking Maxey’s usage last game, as well as his hit rate with #Embiid.
• Last season the Cavs allowed the 11th MOST assists to PGs.
• In the 76ers first game against the Knicks (great defence), Maxey had 14 potential assists with 76 passes made (similar to his averages last year 12.7 potentials and 65.7 passes).
• I won’t lie, I was a bit nervous about #LeBron taking over playmaking duties, but I think it’s clear Maxey is still the primarily facilitator on the 76ers.
• In similar matchups last season (with Embiid and against bottom 15 defences to PG assists) Maxey was over in 19/21.
• Home opener for the 76ers… I really think the offence is gonna be buzzing in this game.
• If you only have o5.5 at + odds I would take for 0.75u!
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October 20th NBA Recap ✏️
1-1 (-0.4u)
❌ Cade Cunningham o24.5 Points
✅ Ajay Mitchell u11.5 Points
YTD: 1-1 (-0.4u)
Very excited to be back betting on the NBA!
Unfortunate result with Cade as he ends with 22 on 8-18 shooting… but an absolutely perfect read on Mitchell! Back to researching 📈
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Oct 20th || NBA Pick Of The Day 🏀
0.75u - Ajay #Mitchell u11.5 Points (-125, B365)
• Under in 26/68 last season, but this is all about the matchup!
• Under in 5/5 vs the #Spurs last season.
• Under in 17/28 with #SGA, #Williams and #Holmgren active.
• We are primarily attacking Mitchell’s dominant scoring zone here.
• The Spurs have the 4th BEST defence against Mitchell’s DSZ (restricted area) which is where he scores 66% of his points.
• In similar matchups last season (with SGA, Williams and Holmgren and against top 10 defences to his DSZ) Mitchell was under in 10/13.
• Additionally, in games with SGA, Williams, Holmgren AND McCain, Mitchell was under in 8/8.
• It’s pretty clear Mitchell has a brutal matchup against the Spurs. Add in the fact that OKC already has a plethora of similar guards (McCain, Wallace, Caruso) who matchup better against the Spurs, I think Mitchell’s opportunity to score 12+ points here is going to be limited.
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@QuentinLocks Tailing!
Oct 20th || NBA Pick Of The Day 🏀
Cade #Cunningham o24.5 Points (-115, B365)
• Over in 36/64 last regular season.
• Over in 3/4 vs the #Celtics last season.
• Over in 10/12 without Tobias #Harris last season.
• We are attacking Cade’s usage without Harris, as well as the Celtics defence against his dominant player type.
• Last season in games without Harris, Cade had only one game with usage lower than 28% (over 28% usage in 11/12).
• Additionally, last season the Celtics had 4th WORST defence to Cade’s DPT (PnR Ball Handler) and allowed the 8th MOST 3PM to PGs.
• In similar matchups last season (over 25% usage, against teams with a bottom 20 defence to his DPT and allowed the top 20 most 3PM to PGs) Cade was over in 21/25.
• If we add only “close” games (spread between -5 and +5) to the criteria above, Cade was over in 15/16.
• Think we’re getting a good line here just based off the fact that the Celtics were a good defence against PGs, but given Cade’s usage and matchup I think he’ll cook here!
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Sept 29th MLB Recap ⚾️✏️
2-0 (+1.6u)
✅ Chris Sale o17.5 Pitcher Outs
✅ Michael King o1.5 Walks Allowed
YTD: 40-23 (+6.3u)
Loved the reads here! Let’s keep it going tomorrow 📈
A quick six innings from Sale ✅
1-0 to start the day!
Sept 28th || MLB Wild Card Pick Of The Day ⚾️
Chris #Sale o17.5 Pitcher Outs (-155, DraftKings)
• Over in 19/27 this season.
• Over in 4/4 vs the #Phillies this season.
• Over in 2/3 vs the Phillies last season.
• Over the past 10 games, the Phillies are taking the 7th FEWEST pitches/plate appearance against lefty pitchers.
• In terms of stats, Sale is an absolute beast with a 96th percentile strikeout rate (30.9%), a 97th percentile walk rate (4.8%) and a 99th percentile chase rate (36.5%).
• The Phillies have been quite mid against lefties over the past 10 games with a 15th percentile batting average (.207) and a 28th percentile walk rate (6.1%).
• Considering Sale’s record against the Phillies and the fact that this is the Wild Card round, I see absolutely no reason why the Braves won’t let Sale pitch as far as he can in this game.
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Sept 28th || MLB Wild Card Pick Of The Day ⚾️
Michael #King o1.5 Walks Allowed (-105, B365)
• Over in 23/32 this season.
• This season the #Cubs have the 2nd HIGHEST walk rate (10.6%) and the 4th LOWEST chase rate (28.0%) against right handed pitchers.
• King has been a fairly average pitcher in terms of control with a 43rd percentile walk rate (9.3%) and a 55th percentile chase rate (30.3%).
• In similar matchups this season (against teams with a top 15 walk rate and bottom 15 chase rate) King is over in 11/12.
• Think we’re getting good value here with a -105 line. It’s also worth noting that King is -155 to go over 14.5 outs which is plenty of time to get 2 walks.
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