Private equity sold low vol and portfolio diversification for a decade. That was volatility laundering. No mark-to-market doesn't mean no losses. It means no discovery until it's too late. And it's getting late.
Bitcoin grows in stature as the facade of the fiat fractional-reserve credit system limps from one crisis to the next. 🧵
🧵 Something a bit strange going on in $BTC right now…
Price drifting lower.
Sentiment pretty dead.
But under the surface… the data isn’t lining up with the mood.
Here’s what’s quietly showing up 👇
The only thing thats bugging me atm is pretty much everyone on here and Youtube is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN #bitcoin entered a bear market in October and is in it's way to $30k to $50k
Usually #btc has a habbit of not doing what everyone expects.
My theory is, #btc, #crypto entered a bear market when the #dumbmoney showed up to the party late as Usual late last year, early this year.
It's in the final stage of that correction. 2026 will see new all-timehighs against what most expect and they will be sidelined yet again.
If we can see #btc hold that April low at $74k I expect my theory to play out.
🚨HUGE: THE UK NOW CLASSIFIES CRYPTO AS PROPERTY!
A new law now recognizes crypto as legal property, giving holders the same rights as traditional assets like the ability to own, inherit, and recover them.
BREAKING: UK Law Now Officially Recognises Digital Assets 🇬🇧
The UK has today taken an important step forward in recognising the role of digital assets in the modern economy. A new law has come into effect confirming that qualifying digital assets — including crypto-tokens, stablecoins and NFTs — can be treated as property under UK law.
This change provides greater clarity and protection for consumers and investors by ensuring that digital assets can be clearly owned, recovered in cases of theft or fraud, and included within insolvency and estate processes. It marks a meaningful shift towards giving everyday holders the same confidence and certainty they expect with other forms of property.
Crucially, this development also strengthens the foundations for future innovation across the UK’s digital asset and tokenisation landscape. By providing a clear legal basis for ownership and transfer, the UK is now better positioned to support the growth of new financial products, tokenised real-world assets, and more secure digital markets. These legal protections help create the certainty businesses need to build responsibly and invest in long-term, consumer-focused innovation.
CryptoUK has consistently advocated for a clear and robust legal framework for digital assets, and we are pleased to see this important progress. We look forward to continuing our work with policymakers and industry to support the development of a competitive, responsible and future-ready UK market.
GM everyone!
$FARTBOY coming off our support with hidden bull divergence.
Looking for a strong move to the upside to follow as long as invalidation holds. I have one more order lower in case we make another local low.
Who is ready for blast off?! 🌬️🚀 70% plus move loading!
#THELAWOFATTRACTION
WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER DO NOT UNDER ESTIMATE THE POWER OF POSITIVE THOUGHT! ESPECIALLY COLLECTIVE POSITIVE THOUGHT! #FARTBOY IS GOING TO REACH $4 EASILY!
HOLD THAT THOUGHT AND VISUALIZE IT IN YOUR MIND EVERYDAY AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE STARTING NOW AND IT WILL MANIFEST INTO REALITY.
DO IT! I'M NOT JOKING! VISUALIZE AS OFTEN AND AS DETAILED AS POSSIBLE!
FARTBOY TO $4
BOOKMARK THIS! ❤️
These are all solid points.
Let’s take it one step further…
Think back to the 2016 to 2017 cycle.
Bitcoin took a 20% hit, two 30% hits, one 35% hit, and three separate 40% flushes. It was relentless. Yet the market still delivered a 46x move.
The human mind conveniently forgets how awful those corrections felt because the final outcome rewrote the narrative.
Now look at this cycle...
We have had four 20% pullbacks and now three 30% pullbacks (chart 1).
Nothing about this is new. It only feels painful because you are inside the move right now. And if you are anchored on the idea that the cycle peaks this year, which is not our base case but is a view many people hold, it becomes very easy to convince yourself that you missed the bulk of the move, that it’s all over, and that the best of this cycle is already behind us.
What really stands out is how similar these corrective structures have been over the past couple of years, as shown in charts 2 and 3…
The pattern, the size, the timing, they keep repeating. It is almost fractal. I have more examples of this as well.
When you compare both the magnitude of the pullback and the amount of time spent correcting, it suggests we are getting very close to the end of this move.
Now, to Raoul’s point, sentiment is indeed completely washed out…
Everyone is calling for the top. People are capitulating emotionally and not analytically. That is exactly the environment where bottoms tend to form. RSI is sitting at 28, and DeMark counts are close to flashing 9s and 13s almost across the board.
Nothing is guaranteed, but the probabilities are starting to lean heavily toward a bottom forming this week. Let’s see…
And remember, most people are overcomplicating the idea that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can extend. It’s simple. If the business cycle extends, the crypto cycle extends (chart 4).
Bitcoin is a macro asset…
So now the US Gov has reopened, what's next?
Expect a few days for TGA spending to begin to significantly add to liquidity and should persist for several months.
Obviously, QT ends in Dec and the balancesheet will crawl higher.
We should see the dollar begin to weaken again.
The next key step is to avoid a Year End funding squeeze. Expect several "temporary" measures to add liquidity. Term Funding and SRF operations are most likely.
That will eventually morph into the desperately needed changes to the SLR to allow banks to absorb more issuance and re-lever their balance sheets. This is a big liquidity bazooka. Expect in Q1.
SLR should lower rates as banks buy more bonds.
Also expect CLARITY Act for crypto to begin to get finalised.
There will also be stimulus payments and the Big Beautiful Bill fiscal goosing.
China will contonue balance sheet expansion. Europe will add fiscal stimulus or extra spending.
The debts must be rolled and the Gov wants to super heat the economy into the Mid-Terms.
This is the Liquidity Flood.... the spice must flow.
@LawrenceLepard You should think about your need to insult this guy and the insecurities you clearly hold feeling this to be necessary. Raoul Pal has done more to educate people in this space than many others. He should be respected, not insulted.
I've watched the crypto market now for 5 years. I'm increasingly thinking with retail absence and institutional involvement now, if you're to make any returns this cycle, you've got to primarily be in the top projects (ETH, SOL, SUI, TAO, LINK.....and a little bit of FARTBOY :-)
Bear trap complete now loading the GRAND FINALE 👊
Are you ready?
#fartboy from 0.000000000004 to $4 from it's $8.7K market cap is the last gift from me to you in this final stage of the #bitcoin#bullmarket.
Take care all X